Insight into Tim Duncan

http://www.washtimes.com/sports/20070525-124024-1139r_page2.htm

Pistons/Cavs Notes

-Is it possible that I have been completely mistaken about Cleveland? After two closely fought Cleveland losses, it appears as though Lebron James and his ragtag band of role players absolutely belongs on the NBA’s elite stage. Cleveland’s near success begins and ends with the play of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who is averaging seven offensive rebounds a game this series. He has been an absolute monster on offense as well, averaging 22 points, just under double his season average. His presence in the post opens up the floor for the Cavalier guards. While the Pistons limited him to three points on 1-6 shooting, he remained an impact player during his limited playing time.

-Lebron James did a much better job getting to the basket, playing another strong all around game. Still, he continues to struggle against longer defenders, showing a relative inability to create his own shot. Maybe the expectations are too high on this guy. The league slept on him last year and he exploded, now everyone has been able to adapt their defense to make his life harder. Is it just me, or is Bron Bron playing offense like a super talented version of Eddie Jones? Frankly, he has not shown the ability and the range to make the types of shots that define the careers of guys like Kobe Bryant and Gilbert Arenas.

-As a Tayshaun Prince fanatic, I am really disturbed by his 1-19 shooting performance (0-8 tonight). Clearly, Lebron’s size is bothering him. Prince is so skinny he is being bumped off cuts and really feeling the effects of the contact. If the Pistons can get out a series victory with their glue guy playing like this, they should consider themselves lucky.

-I love Jason Maxiell, and have for a while (http://basketball-insight.blogspot.com/2007/05/utah-ds-up-huh.html). He single handedly kept Detroit early on in their atrocious first half. I don’t care what scouts have to say, the NBA does have a place for undersized, athletic power forwards (see: Barkley, Charles).

-How talented is Rasheed Wallace? Really, how many off balance mid-range jumpers off the wrong foot does he have to hit before people realize that he is one of the best five big men of the past decade? He is a brilliant player, and I love the way that he and Chris Webber work together. My only issue? While he is a great defender off the ball, he needs to regain his strong post defense. Anderson Varejao is scoring seemingly at will. Let me repeat that, Anderson Varejao, the man with the footwork of a DIII center is scoring at will.

-On behalf of the staff here at Ballintellectual, I send my condolences to the city of Boston.

-Looking over the stats from the past two games, I see that Drew Gooden has been an absolute non factor. Shooting only six shots and netting 5 boards, he is a far cry from the 14/10 guy we saw in the Washington series. With Varejao carrying some of the load, it is easy to overlook Gooden's absense, but he gives them a presence in the high post with his mid-range jumper that Varejao doesn't. His lack of production is a major reason that Cleveland is having troubles with its offense.

-EDIT: This is what passes for analysis these days? After two games, all the media is talking about are two end of game plays involving Lebron. Should he have passed (game 1)? Was he fouled (game 2)? What about Rasheed Wallace’s pair of great games? The sudden offence coming from Varejao? Lebron’s defense on Tayshaun Prince? Rather than helping fans understand the forces dictating these games, we are given half assed discussion of two plays among many. Maybe fans wouldn’t be so turned off be defense if media outlets took the time to help them understand what’s involved. Just a thought.

The Big Question? Really?

-ESPN’s Chris Sheridan questions whether Lebron should have passed up his drive with less than ten seconds left in Cleveland’s 2 point loss last night (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dailydime-070522). Would it be impossible for Lebron to get and1 against three players? No, its happened before. But lets face it, Prince was forcing him left, right into the waiting arms of Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton. You HAVE to pass that ball, Detroit’s entire zone was on the left side of the court. Zone-busting 101 tells you that the pass to the right corner or wing is the BEST pass to make. Lebron made exactly the right decision, but on a night when the Pistons took the king off his game, his teammates often let him down.

-Another Lebron-related observation. Bron Bron started on Prince. The Pistons immediately isolated Prince on the wing, utilizing Davis and Wallace to set hard down screens on the week side to open up Billups and Hamilton. Unable to use his size to disrupt Prince, the Detroit Forward was able to either make the right pass or take it strong to the basket (9 asts, 6-6 from the line). Kobe would have stopped that, Jordan would have stopped that, hell, Sasha Pavlovic even helped stop that, the Cavs moved him onto Prince by the second quarter. Lebron is not a good defender, on or off the ball. This makes Mike Brown even more of a defensive genius, he is playing 1st class defense and his best player is a 3rd class defender.

-Who has been the best player in these playoffs? Baron Davis, Tim Duncan, and Steve Nash all make good cases. Davis and Duncan have elevated their games (Duncan does this EVERY YEAR and NOBODY talks about him like he’s a big time player. When they need to be, his shots are better and his passes are crisper.) Lebron? Mediocre for much of the playoffs. Bryant didn’t last long enough. Detroit survives because each of its five starters is an MVP in his own right. The best player, however, was Jason Kidd, who ended his playoff run averaging a triple double for two series. New Jersey, playing with out center Nenad Krstic is NOT a great team. Since his injuries, Richard Jefferson got scared and became a jump shooter. Vince Carter has stretches (seemingly at the worst time) where he suddenly loses motivation and composure (been an issue his whole career). Jason Kidd RUNS that team. Not only in the way that Nash does. Nash runs everything by virtue of having the ball in his hands. What Kidd does as a pg is similar to Nash, but he does even more on defense, when the ball isn’t in his hand. His size and defensive craftiness are what make the Nets a GREAT defensive team. Lawrence Frank is due credit for imbuing most of the roster with a defensive-minded toughness, but Kidd is the only one of Jersey’s guards who has not only the mentality but the skill to be a wonderful defender. Carter is working harder on defense than he ever has before, and Jefferson does his best with limited mobility, but neither is known as an absolute great defender. Outside of Mikki Moore, can you cite anyone on that roster who lives to play defense? Only Jason Kidd. Lebron James is a player blessed with Kidd-esque court vision, great handle, and an even better size-quickness combo. Still, he often comes up short when he’s not scoring (not last night though, see above), fails to defend consistently, and cannot run the break in the way that his skills allow (though this is mostly the fault of his coach and the Cavs’ system). After watching Lebron last night, my mind couldn’t help but return to the fact that Kidd’s performance this spring has been among the best of all time. Factor in that he is single handedly denying critics who call him too slow and old, and you have what could have been a GREAT story in rounds one and two. The NBA, ESPN, and other media outlets really dropped the ball in not covering Kidd more closely. I’m praying that New Jersey surrounds Kidd some more consistent shooters, a big man finisher (Krstic can fill this roll in a year or two), and some better perimeter defense, because Kidd deserves a legitimate shot at a title, and his time is running out.

Why doesn't anyone care about the Jazz?

If a playoff team fells a giant and no one pays attention, will it make a sound?

Everyone is complaining about the NBA’s post season, but everyone is looking for fun in the wrong places. America hates the Spurs and dislikes the Pistons, we get that. Cleveland, a defensive powerhouse with one exciting offensive player only gets positive press when Lebron is involved. But there’s a four seed in the conference finals, and no one wants to pay them any attention. I was looking at ESPN’s picks for some their earlier series, and I realized that the vast majority of the ‘experts’ picked Houston in the first round and Golden State in the second. Utah is exciting, young, they play with passion, they’re an underdog, and most importantly, they are GOOD. The media made a huge mistake giving all of its attention to Golden State, a decent team that got lucky match up wise in round one. Golden State wasn’t going anywhere, and no amount of Hollinger stats will change that. Utah, while not an underdog seed wise, has never gotten any attention, and thus people have been betting against them from day one.

Now, I happen to be a defense nerd, and so Detroit and San Antonio happen to be my two favorite teams to watch outside of NYC, but most fans don’t find them entertaining and they are complaining to anyone in earshot about the possibility of a San-Antonio/Detroit final. Stop bitching America, your team is right here! Sure, Utah is hurt because it is a small market, but playing in a big market is no longer a pre-requisite for exposure (see San Antonio, Indiana, Portland in the early 2000’s) . In the age of the internet, any team that plays well can get a degree of exposure. There is no excuse for the league and the media’s neglect of the Jazz. This is a great team, a team that came out of no where to be included in the top four teams in the league. This team has no where to go but up. As long as they stay healthy, Utah is going to become a mainstay in the conference elite as San Antonio ages. I don’t think they are going to take this series (my preview should be up later, if its not up before game one know that I’m picking the Spurs in 6), but the team has so much upside its scary. And yet, no one seems to care. If the impossible happens and the Spurs fall before this team, maybe America will finally turn its head and pay attention, but they should have done this already. The Jazz won a game seven on the road in their first playoff series as a team. You almost never see that. I expect great things from this squad and I hope that people start recognizing the same thing.

Detroit vs. Cleveland

Much has happened in the NBA world since my last post, and it certainly appears as though most of America has written off the rest of the playoffs as a farce… which seems to happen every time the Spurs win the title. In the East, the conference finals feature a Detroit team that appears neigh unbeatable (aside from 5 halves in which they forgot how to play basketball). The ‘Stones face off against a coasting Cavs team. During their widely unappreciated series with New Jersey, the Cavs showed stretches where they played some of the best man-to-man defense I’ve seen all year. They remind me of the ’04 Pistons in their great ability to absolutely smother the pick and roll (the similarities stop there). During the regular season, the Pistons walked away with the series, winning three to the Cavs one. The Cavaliers only victory was a closely fought overtime contest in Detroit. It is going to be interesting how the Pistons play James, especially considering that he is the only player on that team who can hurt them. If they go to man, I don’t think any of the Pistons match up well with Bron Bron. Prince might hurt him with his length and quickness, but if Lebron mixes up his game and takes Prince into the post he might create havoc. I fully expect the Pistons to go zone, utilizing Prince in the middle to force James to stay on one side of the floor. On the other end, the Pistons are better equipped to match up with Cleveland’s man-to-man than anyone. Detroit has players able to score at all five positions and they move the ball well enough that each of those five can get looks. Detroit’s strength on offense is that it starts three of the best playmakers in the game (Billups of course, Webber, and the underrated passer, Rasheed Wallace). Last year, Cleveland (and Miami) was able to play off Ben Wallace, but they can’t do that with Webber. If any of Detroit’s players get doubled, they not only have plenty of options of where to pass, they have the ability and desire to make that good pass.

I’d like to call this a sweep in the Pistons’ favor, but time and again, Detroit has displayed a propensity to let down after a amassing a lead in a series. Though they are better than I expected, I still see remnants of the ‘flip-the-switch’ mentality that killed the Pistons last year, and often did them in the regular season this year. Still, if they drop more than one against Cleveland, I will be very surprised. Thus, I pick…

Detroit in 5

Rolling 'stones

The Detroit Pistons are playing like a team on a mission. ESPN’s new morning show reported that they were unhappy about not being included among the league’s elite, and my question is, when did this team stop being one of the NBA’s elites? This is a team that has made the Eastern Conference finals (the NBA’s final four) the last four years in a row. Furthermore, five out of the past six years, Detroit has won the Central Division (the year they missed was 2004, when they won the title) The Spurs might have more championships, but other than them, Detroit is the closest thing to a dynasty the NBA has had in the past five years. Unlike last year’s playoffs, when they made it as far as they did purely on the weakness of the rest of the East, Detroit this year is playing like a champion. The Bulls were hot at the regular season’s end and in the first round, this is a good Chicago team. Apparently they are not good enough. Detroit is defending out of its mind, the Bulls guards are completely unable to figure out Detroit’s vice like zone. On offense, the Pistons starting line up, featuring five legitimate offensive threats, is coming together at just the right time, especially Tayshaun Prince, the best 3 (who plays like a 3) in this round (taking over for Deng last round). Most importantly is the focus Detroit is bringing every single night. According to reports, the Pistons’ players and opponents are citing a new level of intensity as the reason behind the Pistons’ improved play. No kidding. Entering the playoffs I wondered aloud about the Pistons’ ability to turn it on. As the regular season came to a close, they were not playing a high quality of basketball. The Bulls were by far playing like the better team. Seems as though the Pistons have gotten their game together at just the right time. They could win a championship at this clip.

#32, Tri-Captain, Herb Williams

According to the NY Post Herb Williams is interviewing with the Bobcats for a head coaching job. They talk about how Williams has been garnering respect around the league. I am thrilled. Williams, always known as a class act, has been only a gentleman while providing hard work on the coaching staff of a fairly atrocious Knicks franchise. One of the only stable names in the Isiah era, Williams has been a great asset to this chaotic team. I hope Williams gets the head coaching job that he deserves, especially with guys like Doc Rivers out there getting contract extensions.

Western Dominance Manifest

It’s a phenomenon that baffles and upsets many NBA fans, one that is difficult to explain, and difficult to demonstrate, but its also a universally accepted fact: The East is least, the West is best. Since Jordan hung up his sneakers, the NBA has had to struggle with the reality that basketball is just played better in the NBA’s western half. Today, the all-NBA teams were released, and surprise, surprise, not one of the players on the first team plays for an eastern conference squad (Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, and Amare Stoudemire). That’s not surprising, these are the five best players by position in the league right now. What’s surprising to me is how natural it feels. At no point in reading those names did I think, ‘wow, that’s kind of unfair that the east is unrepresented.’ It’s gotten to the point that it is just natural that the best players, and thus the best teams, are all located out west. But wait, you argue, two out of the last three championships were won by teams in the Eastern Conference. True though this may be, it had more than a little to do with the fact that while the Lakers (in 2004) and Mavericks (in 2006) were busy fighting through the Western gauntlet, the East’s elite face little competition in the first round, and often breeze through round two as well. The fact is, the West features more quality teams and players all the way through (well, at least seeds 1-8) whereas the east features duds every year (looking at your Orlando Magic).

Utah D's up Huh?

-Yesterday’s Detroit/Chicago game was painful. Time and again, the Bulls’ post defense, held by me to among the league’s best, got burned by whoever got them down low. In 15 minutes of play, Jason Maxiell had 8 rebounds (lets keep watching this young man), and the Pistons’ starting front line had seven boards each (Rasheed Wallace did it in 18 minutes), all told, the Bulls got out rebounded 51-30, giving up 15 offensive boards. Meanwhile, the Bull’s started in some pathetic half court trap, in an effort to keep the ball out of Billup’s hands in transition. They accomplished that mission, but Tayshaun Prince did an admirable job bring the ball up court, giving it to Billups once the point guard was good and set. All in all, the Pistons were never taken out of their game, and the Bulls never looked like they were ever into it. I wonder if the Bulls are just content, I certainly hope not as I still believe that this team can take it to the finals if they get it together (and if the Pistons start slipping).

-Meanwhile, in Utah, we saw a game of contrasting styles indeed. Don’t let the triple digit score fool you, this game saw a back and forth where some stretches were played up tempo, and during others Utah was able to slow things down a bit. I was really surprised how well Golden State was able to bother Boozer, holding him to 6-15. Though, his 10 offensive rebounds, 20 overall, speak for themselves. I also immediately regret not putting Al Harrington in the scout, I didn’t think he could bounce back from the last series and I was clearly wrong. We are in for another good one involving the Jazz.

Warriors/Jazz

The biggest benefactors of Utah’s game 7 victory over Houston? Well Utah of course. But Golden State was also thanking the basketball gods on Saturday night. While a match up with Houston would have been a nightmare, the Warriors are much better equipped to deal with this smaller Utah squad, and the result is going to be another closely fought series for both teams. There are question marks for each side. How will the Warriors deal with Utah’s big man duo? Dealing with Okur will be like dealing with Nowitzki, and as we’ve seen, the Warriors are well equipped to handle that. What about Boozer? An overlooked low post player for so many years (thanks to injuries), Boozer is coming into his own at just the right time. It is likely that Biedrins will see a lot of time guarding Boozer, and the young Latvian has shown that he is a more than capable defender. However, Boozer is so tough to guard because of he can score so many ways on the low block. With a reliable fade away, a solid dribble, and of course a huge build, Boozer reminds me in a lot of ways as a smaller, quicker, less skilled Tim Duncan. Needless to say, Golden State is going to have their hands filled down low. However, there are match up problems for Utah as well, namely, who is going to stop the ball and guard Baron Davis in transition? The best Utah defenders are their front line (which includes the versatile Kirilenko). But Kirilenko is not quick enough to guard Davis, and will likely be tasked with shutting down Stephen Jackson (a task for which he is very well equipped). Without a proper check, Davis might have free reign in transition, a huge problem for a team that’s trying to slow the tempo and control the pace. Both teams have pretty big issues, but considering the Jazz’s steadiness and the Warriors’ volatile nature, I’m gonna go with the higher seed.

Jazz in 7

Suns/Spurs

The West’s marquee match up for this second round is now even bigger because the Mavs are out of the playoffs (feels kinda weird, doesn’t it?). This is a series that features perhaps the two best teams left in the playoffs, and pits the league’s best grind it out defense against its most efficient up tempo offense. As I talked about when discussing their first round match up with Denver, San-Antonio’s biggest strength is their ability to masterfully control the tempo of a game. Consider the fact that, during the regular season, Phoenix averaged 12 points less than normal against the Spurs. On the individual side, the Spurs defenders have taken most of Phoenix’s big guns off their game. Nash shot 30% from behind the arc against Tony Parker and whatever help the Spurs gave him, a 15% decrease from his season average. Shawn Marion struggles as well, with his FG% dropping to a ghastly 37%. The other member of the Suns big three, Stoudemire, is well recognized for having big games against San Antonio, especially during their last series in 2005 in which he blew up for over 35 a game. People are putting that stat all over the place, neglecting to point out that that series was never competitive. What happens is that when San Antonio slows the game down, the Phoenix offense becomes a pick and roll or two man game with Nash and Stoudemire. So Soudemire gets more touches against the Spurs, but that’s exactly what San Antonio wants. San Antonio is not perfect, this will not be a sweep, though I don’t think it will be so competitive either. Look for San Antonio to steal one on the road early, defend their home court, and pull it out in six.

San Antonio in 6

EDIT: Looking over old posts, I realize that I had first picked the Spurs to win in five. The only reason why I changed it was because to do so would require San Antonio to win two games, including an elimination game five, on the road. I think its more likely they drop two in Phoenix, but take care of business in Texas to send the Suns packing

New Jersey/Cleveland

Though Detroit/Chicago will rightly be in the spotlight, the 2/6 match up between the Cavs and Nets will be a good one to watch as well. During the regular season, Cleveland took two out of three from New Jersey, with the home team winning each. The last game was a bit of a blowout, Cleveland took it by 18. My gut tells me that the Nets, with the way they have been playing, will take this series, but the stats tell another tale. Cleveland’s box score from the three games against the Nets reads like a normal Cavs game; nothing New Jersey did took Cleveland off its game. The numbers for both teams are close, and no one Cleveland player did significantly better or worse than normal. New Jersey, however, should be concerned if the season box is anything to go by. While Carter has been great against the Cavs, netting 27 a game on 53% shooting (50% from 3), the other two members of the big three haven’t done nearly as well. Kidd got 9 points a game against them, though this isn’t that concerning considering his 9 boards, 8 assists, and the fact that he’s playing at another level anyway. More concerning is Jefferson who is shooting 35% en route to 12 points a game. Clearly, Hughes has been doing his job on Jefferson. New Jersey is also averaging 18 turnovers against a stingy Cav defense, a far cry from the 14 New Jersey gets on a regular basis. If Richardson cannot find a way to pick up his shooting, the Nets will have very few options for spreading out the defense, allowing the Cavs to pack it inside to keep Kidd and Carter out of the paint. This one will be close, but I’m going to go with Cleveland.

Cavaliers in 6

Detroit vs. Chicago

As I’ve said twice now already in this space, I’m really, really looking forward to this series. I picked Detroit in seven before the playoffs began and I’m sticking with that, though a lot of evidence points in the opposite direction. What’s going to be great about this series is that it showcases two great defensive teams with very different styles. Chicago’s defense is designed to lead to fast break opportunities. The Bulls pack the defense inside, forcing the opposing team to take outside shots, and then the quick Bulls guards grab the rebound and run with it. Detroit is quite the opposite. When they play man, they practically dare opposing guards to try to take them off the dribble or make an entry pass. Their perimeter defense is so tight its hard for either of those to happen, but its really the only way to beat them because it is so tough to get open looks from outside. While the Bulls like to push the tempo off missed shots, the Pistons like to set up their deadly, patient offence. As I pick a winner, I’m throwing all the stats out the window for this one. The fact of the matter is, this is a professional Detroit team, able to turn it on at the right time, which they have done. Before the playoffs began I questioned their ability to do just that, I worried that they might be coasting, but their domination of the Magic has shown me that my worries had no foundation. Like I said in my initial prediction, this series can go either way. I pick Detroit for their depth, and because Chicago, as a perimeter oriented team, fits right into their hands. But man will this be a good one.

Detroit in 7

The NBA is racially charged?

First of all, second round starts Saturday, I should have match up breakdowns by tomorrow night. There are going to be two great games on TV tonight, and unless a miracle happens, I wont be able to watch either, major bummer. I’ll say this though, Houston and Utah are both playing great basketball, and I expect the Jazz to extend to seven tonight. I also expect Golden State to take care of business tonight, but if the Mavs win, I don’t think Golden State has the ability to win a game seven on the road.

The biggest story right now, or what should be the biggest story right now (honestly, what is Kobe doing on espn.com’s front page?) is the study done by Justin Wolfers, a business professor at Penn, and Joseph Price, a Cornell economics student. As you might have heard, these two analyzed foul calls and turnovers from 1991 to 2004 and found that referee teams (which are made of three people) that are predominantly white make 4.5% more calls on black players. While the opposite is also true (black refs calling more on white players) the effect there is much less and seems to be negligible.

Now, ever since David Stern has begun to remarket the league back in the mid ‘80s, the NBA’s racial make up has been relegated to elephant in the room, everyone sees it and no one in any official position talks about it. Because the NBA partially controls the content being aired on ESPN, TNT, and ABC, the major media outlets don’t address it much either. So when the New York Times propels race relations to the front page, the NBA quickly was up in arms with a reaction. The NBA produced its own study, written by unnamed ‘experts,’ which examined individual calls and claimed no bias. While the NBA’s study is useful in that it isolates individual referee’s calls, it has a much smaller data base (148,000 calls, that might not even be a full season), and its anonymous authorship coupled with the fact that it is produced in house and not by independent scholars makes it highly dubious.

Is race an issue in the NBA, with out a doubt. Race plays a role in much of what the NBA does as an organization, and some would argue that it has a lot to do with how the fans interact. The NBA is a league in which predominantly white league leadership oversees a predominantly black group of sports-entertainers for the benefit of a predominantly white fan base. There is a lot that can be said about this, and if anyone is interested, I highly recommend David Shields work Black Planet. (http://www.amazon.com/Black-Planet-Facing-During-Season/dp/0609806661) Shields, a professor at Washinton University, followed around the Seatle Sonics in the mid ‘90s, producing an insightful look at race’s role in the NBA and how it is addressed (or unaddressed) by the league, its players, and its fans.

So what about this new study? I cannot say I’m surprised. Everyone who takes an intro to psych class can tell you how powerful stereotype is when it operates on the subconscious. Referees are human beings, and they have their prejeduces, even if they do not foster them consciously or overtly. No one is claming that the NBA’s refs, or league officials for that matter, are racist, rather they are claiming that race plays a role in the NBA, just like it does (unfortunitly) everywhere else. I would like to be able to say that we live in a fully color blind world, I cannot. Certianly, the relationship between blacks and whites is nothing like it used to be, and as far as race relations go, I think this society has been heading in a good direction. But no one should expect that we can completely remove human prejudices, even from the most impartial observers. More important than the question of whether this study holds water or not, I think, is the issue of what should be done now. Is there a way to remove some of this prejudice? There must be, though I cannot think of anything practical anyone can do right now. Rather than outright denying these claims, the NBA should be working on ways of alleviating the problem, if it can. Of course, to do this would be to acknowledge that race is, indeed, a powerful force in the NBA, just as it is in all of society; but if the NBA took necessary steps to take care of this issue, it would speak volumes about its moral priorities as an organization. As it stands right now, Stern and his lawyers look like a bunch of scared business men trying to cover their asses.

Don't, Don't, Don't Believe the Hype

Between now and Thursday, when the Mavs and Warriors battle again, there is going to be a lot of talk about Dirk, and how he ‘elevated his game,’ ‘silenced critics,’ etc. I think this says a lot about the relationship the media has with the NBA and how powerful they are in influencing how the game is sold. The media is trying to spin the series to tell us fans a story. It’s a story of emotion, where the emotionally charged Warriors are out-emoting the scared Mavs. Dirk Nowitzki, the erstwhile MVP is being bashed because he lacks the ‘fire’ to elevate his game. He is compared to the great scorers of all time and falls short, not because of a deficiency in his game, not because he is easily defended, but because of his ‘passion,’ his ‘drive,’ his ‘confidence.’ Then, like manna from heaven (from the league’s perspective), Dirk puts together his best game of the series in a do or die situation, and a new chapter is added to this heavily constructed story. Columns will come out tomorrow applauding Dirk for silencing the critics, ignoring the fact that the people writing these columns are the very critics he silenced. Folks, most of the people whose stuff you read (yes, even Bill Simmons) are writing for mass media outlets, most of which have close financial ties to the NBA. And so they spin, taking a complex series and telling it as a nice, neat, narrative.

Basketball, like all sports, is in large part a game of intensity, emotion does factor heavily into what these players do every night. That said, 67 win teams do not lose to 42 win teams on intensity alone. Make no mistake people, Dirk Nowitzki is as competitive as most. Not everyone is Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson, or Steve Nash (to name a few), but if you don’t think Nowitzki plays with fire than you aren’t watching closely enough. What’s hurting the Mavs is not an emotional deficiency, it has to do with a combination of a brilliant coaching job on the part of Don Nelson, the unique nature of Nowitzki’s game, and the fact that the Mavs just don’t match up well with the Warriors.

Don Nelson is of a unique mold among coaches in that he needs teams that can play to his style, he doesn’t coach to a team’s strengths (see Knicks, 1995). However, when blessed with the right type of lineup, he is among the best strategists in the game. When he was with Golden State the first time, and definitely during his stint with Dallas, Nelson was great at running the team in a way that emphasized his team’s ability. Add that to the fact that he is intimately acquainted with the Mavs’ personnel, and you have a recipe for a great coaching job. I could cite a number of things that he has done to hurt the Mavs, but let’s focus on how he is defending Dirk.

When people claim that Dirk Nowitzki redefined the 4 position, they say it because he has a unique playing style. Dirk is slow, he can be explosive off one dribble but does a poor job creating his own shot off the dribble. Despite his size, he plays best while facing the basket, and because of this can be very ineffective on the low block. And, of course, Dirk’s stroke combined with his size makes his shot nigh unstoppable. To play down his deficiencies, the Mavs usually run a 1-4 set, which means that Dirk gets the ball in the middle of the floor, while everyone else spreads out along the base line (1 player at the top, 4 players at the bottom). Usually teams isolate their scorers on one side or the other. The problem with isolating the middle of the floor, like the Mavs do, is that it means that a double team can come from anywhere. Nelson knows this, and he has the personnel to exploit this weakness in the Mavs set. He has doubles coming from all over the floor, forcing Nowtizki to make a decision: He can try to pass out of the double team, a tough prospect because the middle of the floor is a difficult place to pass out of effectively (and Dirk is not a terrific passer). Another option is to use his dribble to commit to one side, which is exactly what the Warriors want Nowitzki to do. Once they get Nowitzki to put the ball on the floor, they have him at his most vulnerable. Turnovers and bad shots ensue. These tactics are effective, they take Dirk off his game, and THAT is when the mind games start, that is when the confidence begins to eek away. It is not emotion that is dictating this series, it is strategy.

And regarding whether Nowitzki actually ‘elevated his game’ in the fourth tonight, undoubtedly Dirk played his best fourth quarter tonight, but very little of what he did was different from other games. Those two big threes he hit in the last few minutes? They looked eerily similar to the two he hit at the end of game 4. The difference? These came a few minutes earlier, where as Dirk’s hot shooting in game four was too little too late. So, when you read that Dirk has found his fire, regained the competitive spirit, or whatever hyperbolic statement ESPN.com throws at you, think really hard before you buy into the hype.