Ballintellectual

The Importance of Being Brent Barry

2008-01-09T15:12:00.001-05:00

Happy new year everyone, its been a long break. After a bit of pressure, I decided to return to the blog once more, though I wouldn’t expect daily updates just yet! Lots of stuff has gone on in the NBA, both over the summer and in this still young season. This year is definitely shaping up to be an exciting one. Unlike last year we have a large number of legitimate MVP candidates (the short list includes Dwight Howard, Kevin Garnett, Lebron James, Chris Paul, and Kobe Bryant), the next generation of NBA superstars is finally beginning to emerge in the form of Paul, Howard, and Deron Williams, and while the Celtics are running away with the regular season, there is no consensus on a favorite to win the NBA title. That said, anyone who has been round this blog before knows that my pick is, as always, the San Antonio Spurs, and the team’s recent struggles are what prompted me to start writing ballintellectual again.

People aren’t talking about it, but the big news of the young NBA season should be the fact that the Spurs don’t seem so comfortable. This is not a record issue, the Spurs are holding on fairly securely to a top spot in the west with a very fine 23-10 record. Everything aside from the record, however, should bring concern to Spurs fans everywhere (there are about five of us outside the city of San Antonio). In their last ten games, the Spurs are 5-5, an unheard of streak for them in the past decade. For the first time since the 1999-2000 season, their starters face major injuries. Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobli (their MVP), have all missed games this season, and we aren’t even at the all star break yet. Granted, these injuries have been temporary, and considering the track record of the Spurs’ training staff, the Spurs’ big three should remain healthy until June. However, this overlooks the most serious injury facing San Antonio this season, the torn calf muscle of 2-guard Brent Barry.

Barry has been part of the Spurs franchise since the 2003-2004 season, taking over for Stephen Jackson as the Spurs go to spot up shooter. Barry is 36 and is not an offensive force, nor has he ever been. However, besides the big three, no individual piece of the Spurs offense is as important to their success as their shooters, and Barry is a quick shooter who shoots 40% behind the arc for his career.

Why is Barry so important to the Spurs’ success? The answer lies in the ways that various teams most typically defend San Antonio. The line on the Spurs for years has been to make them into a three point shooting team. To beat the Spurs, teams try to pack the middle, stopping dribble penetration from Ginobli and Parker and post-ups from Duncan. In doing so, opponents leave the Spurs open to shoot threes, thus forcing the Spurs to beat them from the outside. Unfortunately for the rest of the NBA, San Antonio is adept at spreading the floor and making it easier for their shooters to hit threes, their ability to adapt to opponents’ defensive schemes is a large part of their success. With Barry hurt (and badly), the Spurs lose their best shooter, the guy with the quick release who can stop & catch on a dime, and launch a shot before his man has time to recover from doubling down on Duncan. When teams trap Duncan/Parker pick and rolls, sending Duncan’s man to double team parker when he comes off the screen, it is often the weak side guard (Brent Barry’s man) who is sent to temporarily cover Duncan. This of course leaves Barry open, and he is adept at making teams pay for leaving him open. With Barry gone, the Spurs lose a major dimension to their offense. No longer do opponents have to worry about leaving the weak side guard to pack the paint, the Spurs’ shooters are simply less of a threat.

All of these points aside, I still expect San Antonio, with Barry in tow, to make a comeback when it counts, and tweak out another title. However, this year has exposed cracks in the Spurs’ armor that have never been seen before, and I only hope that RC Beuford sees them too, making the correct roster changes before the dynasty is forced to end.

Tell your friends about ballintellectual! Its good to be back!

Best of the rest part III: The 1993-2000 Indiana Pacers

2007-07-08T15:02:00.000-05:00

Avg wins per Season: 54
Playoff Results:
1994: Lost in Eastern Finals to Knicks in 7
1995: Lost in Eastern Finals to Magic in 7
1996: Lost in first round to Hawks in 5
1997: No Playoffs
1998: Lost in Eastern Finals to Bulls in 7
1999: Lost in Eastern Finals to Knicks in 6
2000: Lost in NBA Finals to Lakers in 6

For this third installment of Best of the Rest, we turn our attention away from the high profile contenders from New York and Seattle to one of the best, and most underappreciated squads of the 1990s. During that decade, the Indiana Pacers made the playoffs every year other than injury filled 1996-1997, they made four Eastern Conference finals appearances, and climaxed in the 2000 playoffs by obtaining the ‘participant’ trophy in one of the last competitive NBA Finals.

The Pacers success began and ended with shooting guard Reggie Miller, the best role player of all time. Miller made a hall of fame career off of one offensive maneuver, catching and shooting off of screens. Playing to this ability, the Pacers filled their front line with tough players such as Antonio and Dale Davis, two players known for their screening abilities. As a result, the Pacers of the 1990’s featured some of the league’s toughest defense. Rounding out their front line during this era was 7”4 Dutch sensation Rik Smits. Smits never put up gaudy numbers, always staying slightly over 15 points and 6 rebounds. However, Smits was a major part of the Pacers’ success during this era, using his defense to subdue the conference’s giants, including Patrick Ewing and Shaq.

In 1993, the Pacers were coming off a string of four first round losses. The young club showed promise during the regular season, posting 47 wins. With a front line that included the Davis pair, Smits, and a young Derrick McKey, the Pacers had a club whose toughness could now rival the Knickerbockers. The Pacers showed just how tough they were in the first round when they swept O’Neil’s Magic. They then upset a very good, and very old, Atlanta Hawks team to meet the Knicks once more, this time in the Confrence finals. This would be the second of six classic playoff series between these two clubs, each team would end up taking 3 series raising the question of who deserved to be called second best in Jordan’s East. The Pacers fell to New York in 1994, but would upset the Knicks the following year in yet another seven game classic. This matched them up with a slightly more mature Orlando Magic squad. The Magic would come out on top this time, their reward being a four game massacre at the hands of the Houston Rockets.

For two years, things would not be the same for the Pacers. In 1995-1998, despite matching their ‘94-‘95 win total of 52, the Pacers failed to make it out of the first round. Though they gained notoriety as being the only team to beat the 72 win Chicago Bulls twice during the regular season, an injury to Reggie Miller opened the door for the now forgotten post-Wilkins, pre-Mutumbo Atlanta Hawks to pull off the upset. Disaster struck the following year. Boasting a tweaked lineup that included the now underrated point guard, Travis Best and underrated point forward, Jalen Rose, the Pacers could not transition effectively enough. They missed the playoffs with an abysmal 39 wins, aided no doubt by injuries that limited Smits to 52 games.

The following year, coached by Indiana legend Larry Bird, the Pacers returned to glory, winning 58 games. The major addition to their team was an aging, but still effective, Chris Mullin. This return to relevance earned them yet another match up with the Knicks. The Pacers gave the Knicks a beating that year, winning the series 4-1. The Pacers then faced Jordan’s Bulls for the first and only time during this stretch. The result was a magical seven game series, only the second time during the Bulls’ six title seasons that a team would push them the full seven games. The home team won every game, culminating with a five point Chicago victory in the deciding game. Still, that series, more than anything, showed the world that the Pacers were back, perhaps even better than before. The team, once a two dimensional squad whose fate rested on Miller’s shot and its front line, now featured weapons at every position. Though Smits was beginning to slip, Antonio and Dale Davis had now firmly established themselves as two of the league’s best big men. Jalen Rose brought some much needed finesse to the front court, a 6”8 who played on the perimeter. Finally, Mark Jackson and Travis Best shared minutes at point guard, becoming one of the leagues best starter/backup combinations at the position.

During the lockout shortened 1999 season, the Pacers posted the East’s second best record, and swept their way through the first two rounds. For the fifth time in seven years, the Pacers found themselves matched up with the Knicks. Despite having the home court, Indiana faltered in six games. Coming into the 1999-2000 season, the Pacers knew that they had to win now. Contributors such as Mullen, Jackson, and Smits were quickly losing their abilities to contribute, and the rest of the lineup had played together for years and never made it out of the Eastern Conference. The Pacers put together a fine 56 win season, earning home court throughout the Eastern playoffs. The Pacers would beat the Bucks and 76ers in the first two rounds, and once again face the New York Knicks. The Knicks stretched Indiana to six games, but the Pacers were a team on a mission, taking the series and making it to their first, and only, NBA Finals.

In the Finals they met the Lakers. Though they would fall in six, the Pacers made almost every game competitive (in game 1 they lost by 17 and afterwards, many predicted a sweep). This series would be the last time an Eastern Conference team even put up a fight in the Finals until the classic Spurs/Pistons matchup of 2005.

The following year, the Pacers acquired young center Jermaine O’Neil, who replaced the retiring Smits. The team would return to prominence three years later, but that version was very different than the squad that dominated the Eastern Conference for seven long years.

Highest High: Though the team made it farthest in the 2000 playoffs, their competition was no where near as tough as it was in 1998, when the played Jordan’s Bulls to a near draw in the Conference Finals. That series let them join the 1992 Knicks as the only teams to every give a champion Bulls squad a whiff of defeat.

Why didn’t they win? This is a tough one. Unlike other Eastern Conference powers from this era, they were not constantly victimized by Michael Jordan. In reality, they just peaked at the wrong time. Their best chances to win came in 1998, 1999, and 2000, and all three years featured very dominant squads (the Jordan Bulls, the red hot Knicks [and had they beaten the Knicks they would have been shellacked by the Spurs], and the emerging dynastic Lakers).

Best of the rest part II: The 1992-1998 Seattle Supersonics

2007-07-01T13:34:00.000-05:00

Avg Wins per season: 59.5
Playoff Finishes:
1993: Lost in Western Finals to Suns in 7
1994: Lost in first round to Nuggets in 5
1995: Lost in first round to Lakers in 4
1996: Lost in NBA Finals to Bulls in 6
1997: Lost in 2nd round to Rockets in 7
1998: Lost in 2nd round to Lakers in 5

Between the 1989 and the 1990 drafts, the Seattle Supersonics picked up the two players who would form one of the best 1-2 punches of the decade. With the 17th pick in the 1989 draft, Seattle stole the 19 year old man-child Shawn Kemp. Coming straight from prep school, many teams had passed on him because of his age and inexperience. Though it would take a year, Kemp soon made those teams pay. The following year, the Sonics were rewarded with the number two pick, using it to pick up Gary Payton. Payton would take some time to mature into his role as floor general, his scoring average would steadily rise from his rookie year (7.2) until his fifth season, when he had his first 20+ ppg season.

It took some time for the duo to take over the team, but once they did, the Sonics would feature one of the league’s strongest defenses and most deadly fast breaks. Payton’s first year, the Sonics were ousted in the first round, and they followed this by falling to the Run-TMC warriors in 1992. By 1993, the Sonics were ready to roll, and thus began a six year stretch in which the Sonics would average 59.5 wins a season, placing themselves alongside the Jazz and Rockets as one of the elite teams of the West.

In 1993 saw the Sonics fell in a seven game classic to the Phoenix Suns, but the team stood ready to build on the success of their young duo. After Jordan retired for the first time, the Sonics were on the short list of contenders. 93-94 saw them post one of their finest regular seasons. Behind Payton, Kemp, and newly acquired big man Detlef Schrempf, the Sonics cruised to a league best 63 wins, and they matched up with the 42 win Denver Nuggets. What followed is one of the most told stories in the NBA’s annals. Up 2-0 in the series, the Sonics dropped the final three games, resulting in the biggest upset in NBA history.

Expectations were high for the Sonics, who finished fourth in the conference the following season. Led by Kemp and Payton, and joined by Schrempf and young star Kendall Gill, the Sonics were once again heavily favored in the first round against the LA Lakers. The Sonics barely won a game as they suffered yet another playoff collapse, ending their chance to win a title while Jordan was out of the league.

In 1996 these Sonics had inarguably their finest year. Both Kemp and Payton had perhaps among their best seasons. Kemp cemented his place next to Karl Malone and Charles Barkley as one of the league’s most unstoppable power forwards, averaging 19 points and 11 rebounds. Payton meanwhile, was all finesse on the offensive end, good for 19 points and 7 assists a game. Even more important, however were his almost three steals, which netted him defensive player of the year, and a reputation as one of the league’s finest perimeter defenders. Finishing with 64 wins, good for second best in the NBA, the Sonics swept the defending champion Houston Rockets, and frustrated the Utah Jazz in the Western Finals. Though they eventually lost to the legendary 1996 Bulls, the Sonics were undoubtedly the second best team in that 1995-1996 season.

The next year would be Kemp’s last with the team. Changes were underway within the organization. The team featured a much slower-paced half court offense, better suited for Patyon’s ability to create off the dribble. Kemp’s scoring dipped while Patyon’s rose. Still, the team finished with 57 wins, and was among the favorites to come out of the west. Eventually, the team lost in seven to the Houston Rockets, and Kemp was traded in the off-season. For one season, 1997-1998, Vin Baker would play the part of Shawn Kemp, and few could tell the difference. Displaying an affinity with Patyon on the court, Baker had one of his best seasons, helping guide the new, grind it out Sonics to 61 wins. The Sonics eventually lost once more in the second round, becoming victims of a Laker team that was led by Shaq and Kobe Bryant. The Sonics never again reclaimed the success that they had had earlier in the decade. They never made it out of the first round with Patyon again. Still, their annual regular season dominance, combined with a phenomenal 1995-1996 season cements them as one of the top teams of the era.

Highest High: While the Chicago Bulls stole the spotlight in 1995-1996 with 72 wins and a year long coronation of Michael Jordan as basketball’s messiah, the Sonics were running on all cylinders out west. Earlier in the decade their maturity issues had haunted them in the playoffs, but now their will to win had caught up with their talent, and all the pieces just seemed to come together. The fact that they cruised through a very tough western conference is evidence for just how good this team was.

Why didn’t they win? Well the presence of Michael Jordan for one, but mostly because of their two infamous playoff collapses. They were absolutely the best team in the regular season in 1993-1994, and were better than their record showed in 1994-1995. The fact that in 1996 they swept the Rockets shows that, had they made it out of the first round either of those years, they had a good chance to go all the way. Instead, they will go down as one of the best teams from the modern era to never win a title.

The Randolph Trade

2007-06-30T12:20:00.000-05:00

The Zack Randolph trade is weighing heavily on my mind. Very rarely has a trade come along involving my Knicks that conflicts me so much. Was this a good trade? I think if you look at it from a certain perspective it absolutely is. There are four ways to evaluate this deal: From the talent standpoint, from the financial standpoint, from the chemistry standpoint, and from the standpoint of the bit players involved (Dan Dickau and Fred Jones).

Talent: A stand alone deal

If a knowledgeable fan were to pick up the paper and see the terms of this trade, on their own, he would rightly conclude that this was a steal for the Knicks. At its foundation the trade looks like this: An aging pg who produces well below expectation and a decent 4 whose growth as a player seems to have completely stopped in exchange for a franchise big man in a league devoid of franchise big men. If this were a one time deal, a stand alone exchange, the Knicks would be the clear winners. From a fantasy basketball or a video game perspective, the Blazers would have to be completely inept to make such a trade. However, the NBA is not a rotisserie league, and this trade does not have to stand on its own.

Finances

Going into the off-season, I thought the Knicks biggest challenge, other than getting a good distributor, would be to get rid of Steve Francis’ contract. On a team laden with over paid players who under perform, Francis, because of the size of his deal, was perhaps the worst. Francis’ deal ensured us of being over the cap until 2009, getting rid of him would allow the team to have its first summer of financial flexibility next year… Zach Randolph makes what Francis made, but his contract runs until 2011. The Knicks are going to be over the cap until 2011! What happens when David Lee’s contract runs out? What happens when Balkman’s contract runs out? For a team that prides itself on its young nucleus, the Knicks have continuously found ways to hamstring themselves against rebuilding. For the past seven years, since the Patrick Ewing deal in the summer of 2000, the Knicks mantra has been to spend money freely in order to sign the best player available and then hope it all works out. For seven years the Knicks have lacked financial flexibility because of their history of terrible deals. Well, its 2007 and all the Knicks have to show for this strategy is one winning season (2001), two playoff appearances (2001 and 2004), and little else. At what point will this franchise realize that their plan is not working and that they need to try and rebuild with rookie contracts and mid-level-exceptions? If the Knicks had more financial flexibility the could make serious runs at the free agents that have come along, and will continue to come along. But by trading away draft picks (who end up with the cheapest contracts) for big names, by trading players with two years left on a deal for players with four years left, the Knicks continue to handicap themselves financially. The Blazers, meanwhile, have the funds to buy out Francis’ contract, help Channing Frye continue to grow in a franchise that is looking to the future, and overall have maintained the type of financial control that the Knicks lack.

Chemistry
This is where the deal gets really perplexing from the Knicks’ perspective, both from a basketball standpoint and from a psychological standpoint. The Knicks are a young team desperately in need of leadership, unfortunately, their defacto leaders are their best and most veteran player (Stephon Marbury) and their coach (Isiah Thomas). Time has shown Marbury to be petty and immature at times, and at this point in his career he makes for a terrible role model. Thomas, whose voice is supposed to carry the calming influence of the wise, is the most volatile, immature coach I have ever seen at this level (other than Larry Brown). Thomas picks fights with opposing players, sanctions his team’s temper, and does not show any ability to handle hot heads such as Nate Robinson, Francis, and Marbury. Nor has he been able to motivate Eddy Curry, who continues to coast on his size and talent. Into this locker-room comes Zach Randolph, a player whose history of convictions and suspensions precedes him. A player who, while talented, refuses to put in the work on the defensive end; and a player who, in the bright lights of New York City, might just implode and take the whole team with him.

But even if this doesn’t happen, even if Randolph makes it to the court to suit up along side Marbury, Crawford, Richardson, and Curry, this acquisition raises all sorts of chemistry questions. The fact is, Curry and Randolph share similar strengths: Curry is great at using his size and soft hands to make his way into the lane and then finish strong. Randolph too is at home near the basket, though he is more adept at using his footwork to get open. Furthermore, Randolph has a solid game from 18 feet out, which the Knicks might tap even more than his back to the basket game. On offense, I think these guys will do more than coexist, they will wreck havoc on opponent’s defenses. However, Curry’s problem has always been that he can’t do anything other than put the ball in the hoop. He is turnover prone, can’t pass out of double teams well, refuses to put in the effort to rebound, and defends like a revolving door. Randolph isn’t so one dimensional, at least he rebounds, but he is an equally bad defender and also has trouble finding the open man out of the double. So we are left questioning where the Knicks plan to find interior defense, and what will stop teams from packing in the lane around the two big men.

To answer the first question, I expect/hope the Knicks will try some zone, both 2-3 and 3-2. A zone will stop teams from capitalizing so much on Curry and Randolph’s immobility, and will allow the two to do what they are most comfortable doing, standing in the lane contesting shots. A 3-2 would be especially neat, as the Knicks could put Jeffries or Balkman in the middle, ala how the Pistons use Tayshaun Prince. Still, this combination of big men raises just too many questions on the defensive end to be sound.

Finally, how long will Thomas bench David Lee? I like a lineup of Marbury, Crawford, Balkman, Lee, and Randolph, a bit small, but it might work in the east.

The role players
In addition to Randolph, the Knicks also picked up Fred Jones and Dan Dickau from the Blazers. Neither has had much NBA success, but both are young, don’t cost much, and might serve in limited minutes. Jones is an undersized (6’4”) shooting guard with a decent stroke (a career 34% from behind the arc) that will allow the Knicks to limit Richardson’s minutes, hopefully staving off injury to his bad back.

Dickau is, in my mind, the more promising of the two. For years I’ve been telling anyone within earshot that the Knicks need a traditional point guard. That Marbury, Crawford, and Robinson, are all scoring point guards who don’t have the skills or the mentality to run a successful offense. Is Dickau going to come in and get major minutes as the Knicks distributor? No. Still, Dickau could conceivably play 10 minutes a game with a more traditional, half court line up. A bit undersized, I envision Dickau running the court alongside Crawford, Balkman, Richardson, and Lee taking advantage of their speed to score in a hurry (and getting burned for 120 points on defense).

The bottom line
Dealing Francis was a great move because it could've taken 30 million off the books, gotten rid of a position redundancy, and relieved this young, impressionable, franchise of a bad locker room presence. Adding Zach Randolph put an extra 30 million on the books, created a new position redundancy, and added an even worse influence to our still young, leaderless franchise.

Allen Ray Ray Allen

2007-06-28T21:16:00.000-05:00

Allen Ray and Ray Allen are on the same team. Also, the Knicks have Zack Randolph. A very interesting night for the Atlantic division.

(The Celtics' trade might be the worst move I've seen in a long time)

The only Andrew Bogut Post You're Gonna See

2007-06-28T17:01:00.000-05:00

Another hiatus, but as I said in my last post, Ballintellectual isn’t your ‘2007 NBA Draft headquarters’ (though I will be blogging on and off during the draft tonight). The Best of the Rest feature has also hit a snag, I’m slowly working on the late ‘90s Indiana Pacers and the 1990’s Seattle Supersonics. But that’s a ways away.

A while ago, Milwakee center Andrew Bogut made comments about the excessive lifestyle of American players in which he hinted at a possible cultural devide between the big spending players of America and the foreign players.

“The public’s got it right - a lot of NBA stars are arrogant and like to spend lots of money and have lots of girlfriends and all that.
“The smarter guys don’t do that. They like to live a regular life and want to retire and be set up. About 80 per cent of them go broke by the time they retire or come close to it.”

When I first read these comments I found them interesting, one of the few instances where an NBA player talks to the media in a seemingly unfiltered manner. I figured others would read the quotes, say a bit about it, and the whole thing would blow over. That’s exactly what happened, and Bogut’s comments were quickly forgotten; that is, until DWil (perhaps the most polished, most skilled writer I’ve encountered in the NBA blogsphere) called out members of the internet media for their neglect of this topic. Reading Bogut’s words again, I was struck by how much he is really saying, and what the implications are for the NBA.

First and foremost, I do not believe that this is a race issue. I will be the first to admit that race has been an unspoken social dynamic in the NBA for decades, and it still is . I understand that the compulsion is there to say that Bogut’s comments reflect some sort of racial divide in the NBA, Bogut is a white man calling attention to spending patterns often associated with black hip-hop culture. However, whatever the origin, white American players in the NBA are often just as guilty of the behavior called out by Bogut. The most thugged out NBA player I’ve ever met was Travis Knight, who spoke with a drawl that I could barely decipher. Frankly, hip hop culture is so closely entangled with basketball culture that white players, especially those from urban areas, have quickly adopted it as their own. Bogut’s comments were not racially charged, they were nationally charged.

Bogut’s comments draw attention to an issue that goes undiscussed, but that I suspect has been growing exponentially since foreign players began coming to the league in droves. After condemning the league’s players for their love of “bling bling,” Bogut argued that “that’s just the way the culture is in America.” Bogut went on to claim that “its just the culture over there (in America). I would never want my child to be brought up in an environment like that, where if you have money you’re supposed to flaunt it and make everyone jealous… That’s why the NBA guys who come from other countries, the Europeans, all sort of stick together away from the game.”

Whether or not you agree with, or are offended by Bogut’s comments, they are clearly symptomatic of the fact that the increasing foreign presence in the league has consequences that go beyond the product on the court. Think about how hard it must be to be in this league as a 20 year old, over 3,000 miles from your home. You’re teammates, with whom you must share a bond, range from 18 year old kids from the inner city to 40 year old fathers. Perhaps you don’t even speak your language. It is natural to develop feelings of isolation. The NBA is fast becoming a mosaic of cultural backgrounds, and while this is a wonderful thing that is a great example of the global era, it must be very hard for many players.

In the weeks leading up to tonight’s draft, a point that I’ve seen made time and again about Yi Jianlian is that much of his success at this level will be predicated on whether he is drafted by an ‘accepting’ program, one that will naturally accommodate him not only on the court, but off it as well. Yao Ming was very fortunate to be drafted by Houston team that was willing to expend the resources necessary to make Yao feel at home and was also willing to give him time for his game to flourish. These facts point to how important integration is for international stars. The barriers between these players and the rest of the league goes beyond language, there are cultural issues as well. This, however, is not a bad thing, nor should it deter the NBA from its current direction in foreign markets. At every point in our history, when Americans have interacted with other peoples in a new environment, there has always been a period of integration. What is important is that this integration period remains peaceful (such as 19th Century European immigration which was embraced economically) rather than hurtful (such as early 20th Century Chinese immigration which was heavily regulated by harsh government laws and met with disdain from much of the population). To create a fully integrated NBA, it is only natural that there would be hard steps for individuals such as Bogut as well as for his American counterparts. Still, I am happy that these issues are no longer repressed by the league and its players because they are important. The rest of the world needs to see both the highs and the lows of global basketball, because in a lot of ways international sports represent the growing international flavor of society at large.

Waiting 'till October

2007-06-20T19:31:00.001-05:00

Teams are jockeying for draft spots, trade rumors are flying around, and coaches are going back and forth among the many members of the inbred club we call the NBA. And I don’t care. Blogs are speculating about their team’s chances of landing Kobe or KG, major sites are sitting on edge hoping to hear just one leak coming out of one team official. And I don’t care. In my years of NBA fandom I cannot remember a single trade ever going through exactly the way a rumor says it will. I have yet to see the interest in speculating how a coach is going to fit a certain team considering the fact that this is a player’s league and nine times out of ten a team’s style is dictated by its roster and not its coaching staff. Don’t get me wrong, I read the rumors, because that’s the only basketball I can get for four months, and this off season is shaping up to be interesting; and yet, I am infinitely more interested in the product that will be put out in November. To me, the off season is four months of back stage maneuvering that exists solely to get everything ready for November. As far as I’m concerned, all speculation is worthless until the pre-season begins and we actually see some product. And, for the record, until Kobe actually goes somewhere, he’s still a Laker.

Best of the rest part I: The 1996-2000 Knicks

2007-06-19T12:06:00.000-05:00

Avg Wins per season: 46
Playoff Finishes:
1997: Lost in 2nd round to Heat in 7
1998: Lost in 2nd round to Pacers in 5
1999: Lost in NBA Finals to Spurs in 5
2000: Lost in Eastern Finals to Pacers in 6

Here it is, the first in my 'best of the rest' series. Each post will feature some background about the team, speculation about what squashed their title hopes, and a chronicling of their best season in the run. Keep in mind that I am looking at teams that had, and sustained a level of excellence for a number of season. Usually this means stretches of making it to, and sometimes beyond the second round of the playoffs.

Absolutely a bit of bias here, I’m a Knicks fan and these four years featured some exciting Knicks basketball, but its my blog and if I want to feature these guys first I will! In 1995-1996, the Knicks went up against the Chicago Bulls once again, only to be ousted in five quick games. Though the Knicks had been an elite Eastern conference team for years (look for a separate post later on the 1991-1996 Knicks), their win total had dropped every year since 1993, bottoming out with their 47-35 showing in ‘95-‘96. With Patrick Ewing aging, the Knicks knew that they would have to retool, adding youth in their backcourt and increasing the depth of their bench. In the 1996 off season, the Knicks signed young guards Chris Childs and Allen Houston, and then traded backup forward Anthony Mason for Larry Johnson. That season featured a more perimeter oriented Knicks squad, crafted around a rejuvenated Patrick Ewing and recently promoted head coach Jeff van Gundy. The results were great, the Knicks win total increased ten games in ’96-’97 and were, arguably, the best team in the East not featuring Michael Jordan. Over the next four years, the Knicks continued to transition away from a Ewing-oriented game. These were fairly forgettable regular seasons, but this paved the way for two of the biggest upsets in NBA history in 1997-1998 the Knicks finished 7th in the East, only to upset the Miami Heat. The following year, after acquiring Latrell Sprewell and Marcus Camby, they upset Miami again, becoming the first and only 8 seed to make the NBA Finals, and they did so playing an exciting, up-tempo style. The Knicks enjoyed one more year of success before making the ill-fated Patrick Ewing trade that launched the team into a period of salary cap issues and irrelevance.

Highest High: Going into the lockout shortened 1999 season, the Knicks had a newly tweaked cast predicated on exciting, up-tempo guard play. It took time for the team to come together, they sputtered through the regular season just making the playoffs with a 27-23 record. However, the team began to mesh in the playoffs, upending the weak #1 seeded Miami Heat, sweeping the Atlanta Hawks, and taking the #2 seeded Pacers by surprise. Though they fell to the Spurs in one of the most lopsided finals ever, the Knicks had made their mark on history.

Why didn’t they win? Stu Jackson. This version of the Knicks was best in their first year, 1996-1997, and they coasted in the playoffs, sweeping the Charlotte Hornets and taking a 3-1 lead on the Miami Heat going into game 5. Late in the game, Knicks point guard Charlie Ward jockeyed for position with Heat forward PJ Brown. Agitated by Ward’s aggressive box out, Brown picked up the smaller player and body slammed him. The Knicks best players, Patrick Ewing, John Starks included, rushed off the bench to aid their point guard. Stu Jackson’s trademark suspensions resulted, and the Heat easily beat a depleted Knicks team in the next two games to come back and take the series. Many people believed that if the Knicks were going to beat Michael Jordan, this would have been the year they could have done it.

The world is Kobe's

2007-06-17T22:31:00.000-05:00

I find it highly suspect that after being criticized for distracting from the playoffs with his trade requests, Kobe went silent until the DAY AFTER THE NBA FINALS. So basically, the NBA, not happy that Kobe was taking the spotlight off their season had him subdue his demands until after the season. This is a conspiracy theory, no doubt, but its a believable one, and it demonstrates how control the league has over media outlets.

Rise of the Combo Guard

2007-06-16T20:55:00.000-05:00

In a twist that would have been unforeseen a few months ago, Tony Parker was named MVP of the 2007 Finals. There are a lot of ways people could spin this event, a lot of narratives were furthered when young Mr. Parker was picked. Some might say that this shows how the balance of NBA talent is shifting in favor of international players. Others claim this as evidence that the NBA is becoming a little man’s game. One overlooked factor, however, is the fact that Parker is the third combo-guard to win Finals MVP in the past four years.

In 1996, the Philadelphia 76’s picked Allen Iverson with the first pick in the draft and the era of the combo guard was officially born. Combo-guard usually refers to a shooting guard in the body of a point. Sometimes, combo-guards are simply described as ‘scoring point guards,’ but this definition does them a disservice. I never liked either of these definitions. A combo guard is a player with point guard skills who is as or more adept at creating for himself as he is for his teammates. Combo-guards in the league include Gilbert Arenas and Deron Williams, bigger point guards who use a combination of speed and strength to be 20+ scorers, as well as players like Iverson, who would be too small to play shooting guard. What makes these players different from traditional point guards such as John Stockton and Magic Johnson isn’t that they could score, Stockton had a terrific jumper and Johnson was averaged 20ppg at one point in his career, they differ in their superior ability to get themselves open. So while Johnson’s drives often took place as part of the Lakers’ transition offense, Iverson is more comfortable penetrating off an isolation play. Once thought of as a coach’s nightmare because they dominate the ball and often have a faulty shot selection, combo-guards have quickly become an integral part of the NBA, and this is manifested no where more clearly than in three of the past 4 NBA finals.

In 2004, Chauncey Billups, a prototypical ‘big’ combo-guard won the MVP due to his ability to balance creating points for himself and his teammates. At home dribbling up the court and jacking a 3, Billups is equally happy to penetrate, draw defenders, and pass off to Rasheed Wallace stalking in the corner. 2006 saw Dwayne Wade take home the MVP. Wade played the 2 on that Heat team, and will likely play 2 the rest of his career, but he handles like a point guard and is adept at orchestrating offense in transition. Wade plays like the prototypical shooting guard, only he stands two inches shorter than most. Finally, this year we saw Parker take home the trophy. Parker is as adept a playmaker as they come, he always operates within the Spurs offense. However, when teams take away Duncan’s shot, Pop is as happy with Parker taking the shot as he is with his big man. This is what defines a great combo-guard, the ability to be the first or second option and do it within a set offense. What some see as selfishness a good coach will identify as a weapon.

The rise of the combo-guard goes beyond the finals, these playoffs also saw the coming to prominence of Williams, whose size/speed combination rivals that of Billups, and who runs a near flawless 2 man game with his big man, Carlos Boozer. Still, when faced with undersized guards, Williams can muscle his way to the basket with the best of them, he is an even stronger scorer than he is a playmaker.

When Iverson came into the league, he was revered for his talent but mangled for his scorer’s mentality. Today, we can look back at the 1996 draft as one of the important moments in the evolution of the point guard position.

Who will be the best of the rest?

2007-06-15T15:37:00.001-05:00

For a while, I’ve been hyping up this project I’ve envisioned called the Best of the Rest. Going through recent history (starting with the 1993-1994 season) I want to go through and make a list of the best squads to never win a title. These are teams that contended year after year, yet for one reason or another never could make the step to the championship. I’ve already started doing research on records, statistics, and other data on great teams, but there are many holes in my memory. Many of those great mid 1990’s Western Conference teams went ignored by me because I was a kid in New York with a 10pm bedtime. So I’m asking you, loyal readers, to give me some recommendations. Maybe there is a team you have in mind. Maybe you can give me a few stories about some of the great teams I already plan to write about. Any contribution would be welcome. Just post a comment on this post!

Here is how I envision the series working. Every few days or so, I’m going to post about one great non-championship team from the past 13 years. Some good examples would be the 1991-1996 Knicks, the 1999-2003 Kings, and of course, the Jazz from the entire 1990s. I’ll talk about the highs and lows, what kept them from winning the title (usually this section will just say ‘Michael Jordan’) and some stories allowing us to remember just how great the teams were.

So anyway, feel free to contribute, I expect this project to be a fun distraction from our post-NBA season

Tears for Lebron

2007-06-14T23:57:00.000-05:00

There’s really nothing about this game that needs to be said. The Spurs won tonight just as the won game three, just as they’ve won most other games. I do think, however, there are a number of interesting stories that came out of these finals, and the first one was just made evident from Lebron James’ last press conference as a 2007 NBA Finalist. People have been saying for months how much pressure is on Lebron’s shoulders. He has to carry his team offensively, put up with intense scrutiny, and, according to some, save the floundering NBA. Well this past week he did none of these, and he is taking a lot of flak.

I am the last person who wants to make excuses for James. The type of criticism levied at him by Rick Barry is all accurate. He doesn’t have a reliable jumper, he has trouble moving without the ball, he has zero skills in the post (unheard of for a 6’8 guy), and he often makes bad decisions in crunch time. People have given him a free pass for four years, and have done him a serious disservice, there are clearly elements of his game that needs improving, and he needs to improve them under intense scrutiny. Which brings me to the depressing post-game press conference I just witnessed. I don’t have a transcript, but here are a few points about Lebron James in interviews. He is very charming, but he is also very polished. You can tell that years of molding have taught this young man exactly what to say and how to say it. The result? Lebron usually does not convey much emotion other than the arrogance expected from a young superstar. Tonight it was different. Lebron’s mouth was smiling but his eyes told a different story. James looked disturbed. Disturbed by the fact that, frankly, he did not do the types of things he expected himself to do. Disturbed because he knows that millions of people expect him to develop a jumper and a post game by October. Disturbed because he had the hopes of an entire city on his back and he faltered.

Now lets be fair, Lebron’s play had as much to do with San Antonio and Bruce Bowen as it did with Lebron’s flaws. But that’s not the way James saw it. Every question shot at him led to a downcast facial expression and an answer that basically said “I need to do better.” When asked whether he needed a better team around him, he basically responded by saying that the team’s progress will begin and end with him. This is true, of course, but maybe all of this is too much for him right now. Because looking at Lebron tonight I saw not a man-child, but just a child, a child who has a lot of questions and not so many answers. James looked worried, he looked worried that he might not have enough to make the necessary changes to his game. Not enough to make it back to this stage, and not enough to leave the Finals’ as a winner.

And I feel for him.

FixitFixitFixitFixitFixit

2007-06-13T23:30:00.000-05:00

Five Tool Tool is calling this the worst NBA season ever. Bill Simmons claims that the NBA has reached the point where fans want to forgo the playoffs in favor of the off season. John Hollinger calls the NBA Finals a joke. Can we blame them? The regular season featured injuries to many of the league’s best players, taking entire teams out of contention. Over the course of the regular season, many of the best teams (and Lebron James) dogged it to conserve energy for the playoffs. For the last few months of the season, Celtics, Bucks, and Grizzlies fans had to wittiness tanking, which is one of the biggest disgraces to sports. We then had an NBA playoffs that climaxed in the first round and was dominated by talk of conspiracy and legal-like rigidity on the part of the league office. In the Finals, we have an anti-climatic battle in which the league’s best team has successfully neutralized the playoff’s biggest sell. Finally, we have a champion so abhorred that major blogs spend more time figuring out what makes them boring than trying to explain what makes them great. Clearly, the NBA needs fixing.

There is no single issue with the league. Injuries, for example, had a lot to do with dumb luck, and a bit to do with the existence of international competition. Another issue is the fact that the regular season is just too long, individual games mean little compared with the energy one can save for the playoffs, and while this has always been an issue, we noticed it more this season because of all the league’s other issues. Tanking, as I said, is one of the biggest travesties in sports. We pay these men millions of dollars for the blood, sweat, and tears that comes with competition, and any system that rewards losing means that we are asking our athletes to give us less than their best. However, we got a bit of a temporary fix when the Celtics, Bucks, and Grizzlies all go their comeuppance in the lottery. Finally, events such as the Spurs/Suns series and the incredibly large amounts of flagrant foul calls that were, lets face it, pussy calls, shed light on two other issues. First of all, the league’s attempt to create and maintain a polished image has diminished the quality of physical play. The result is a set of rules that cuts down on some of the very elements that used to give playoffs their intensity: Physical confrontation within the confines of the game. Need any indication? Watch this clip , we will never see intense competition like this again because the league won’t allow it. A related issue came to a head during the Spurs/Suns series. Most fans have lost faith in the league office. Its become increasingly hard to believe their impartiality. We no longer (if we ever did) identify with or understand the league’s rulings. David Stern has alienated his fan base, and we are seeing it now with the ratings plummet.

All those issues are huge, but none of them looms as large right now as the complete irrelevance of the NBA Finals. Obviously, the reason for this is the fact that the Eastern Conference is far inferior to the Western Conference. Now, this has been an issue the entire decade, but for a number of reasons, this is the first year it has garnered so much attention. In the nine years since Jordan retired in 1998 (during which season there were exactly 2 great Eastern teams anyway), the west has won seven NBA titles, most in convincing fashion. So why is this an issue now? In 1999, the 8th seeded Knicks, a huge underdog from a large market, made the finals exciting simply by virtue of making it. In 2000, the East was represented by Indiana, the only dominant east team held over from the Jordan era. They made the finals competitive and fun. In 2001 and 2002, we were so beholden by the wonder that was the Los Angeles Lakers that we completely overlooked the fact LA was 8-1 in these games (though that one loss, Philadelphia’s game 1 victory in 2001 was a classic). In 2003, people didn’t hate the Spurs quite so much because they were taken in by the David Robinson retirement party. Furthermore, this series went six games, which is enough to make people believe a series is good no matter the quality of basketball (though Tim Duncan’s game 6 performance was, in my mind, the best playoff performance since the MJ era). In 2004 and 2005, we had the apparently short lived run of Piston dominance. The Pistons were a great team, they showed it by winning the title in 2004 and taking San Antonio to seven games on 2005. By sheer virtue of their existence, they made the finals interesting. Last year, the NBA was blessed to have the Miami Heat, a team built with a one year window to win the title. This gave the Heat and its veterans added motivation, enough to propel them past two superior teams. Unlike last year, the young superstar in the Finals is not having his way battling his Western foe, and the Spurs are hated enough to make people complain. And so they do, and the entire blogsphere has to deal with the fact that the NBA needs fixing.

A number of opinions have been thrown around for how to fix the East/West issue, but three caught my eye. Each of the three has its merits, but each comes with the bigger question of, are they doable? The bottom line is that everything the NBA does in terms of scheduling (for both playoffs and regular season) is done with an eye to whether it helps or hinders television revenue. The NBA’s last two major shifts, the change from a five to seven game first round, and the redistribution of teams into six divisions, were both done to increase revenue. The first is more obvious, by increasing the amount of games, you increase the amount of televised events that make the league money. Does a seven game first round series decrease intensity and make it less easy for us to have an upset? Yes. But the league cares about quality of play only as it relates to financial gain. And that is the operative rule that will underlie all of this speculation. The league wants to improve what you see on TV… but only if it can do it without losing money. The realignment of divisions was, in my mind, a response to the East/West differential by creating two more ‘titles’ that can be handed out. Winning the Atlantic division, for example, gives a team and a group of fans something to cheer for, even when it is clear that their team has no chance of winning either the East or the championship. Keeping people interested is the first step to selling tickets and getting them to watch.

The most straight forward of the remedies is to throw out all, or almost all, of the conference differentiation by seeding playoff teams 1-16 and pairing them up the same way as the NCAA tournament. Bob Fitzgerald of the official Warriors website proposes this (along with another suggestion that I think is just crazy). This would eliminate the East/West problem and do it in a simple manner. What it does, however, is completely remove all of the need for conference and division differentiation. Is the NBA willing to do this? Last year, I would have said no, but considering plummeting TV ratings, I’m beginning to wonder how far David Stern would go. The other problem with this would be coordinating TV schedules. In the first round you would have eight series would be going back and forth between multiple time zones, it might be difficult to come up with a TV schedule that allows networks to show every game of every series. This, however, might be easily remedied with creative scheduling, I doubt it would be a deal breaker.

Not all the proposed remedies are so straight forward. In an effort to fix the problem while continuing to give significance to the two conferences, John Hollinger proposes alternating the conferences so that we’d have a bracket that looks like this:
BRACKET
"East" Half
(1East) vs. (8West)
(4W) vs. (5E)
(2W) vs. (7E)  
(3E) vs. (6W)
"West" Half 
(1W) vs. (8E)
(4E) vs. (5W)
(2E) vs. (7W)  
(3W) vs. (6E)

This format would ensure that the best team in each conference earns the right to a top seed. It would also make it so that the best team in the East earns the right to dodge the best team in the West, at least until the finals. Like all of Hollinger’s ideas, this makes sense on paper, and in a league with perfectly intelligent, informed fans, it might work. Unfortunately, I feel as though it would be too complicated to have to explain on a nightly basis, and it just feels too arbitrary. What if, somewhere along the road, we end up with a scenario where two of the better teams play in the second round (it could still happen with the right alignment), fans would still have reason to complain, all the more so because this system would be new and different to them. I doubt that the league would implement something like this, though that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t work.

Bill Simmons has the most creative idea, one that he hopes would root out both the East/West disparity and tanking. Simmons would try to allow the the conference system to maintain a semblance of significance by granting the top six teams in each conference automatic bids. Then, he would have the rest of the team battle it out in a double elimination tournament for the last four seeds. Then, the teams would be seeded 1-16. Simmons believes that this would eliminate the point in tanking because to do so they’d have to blow their chance in the double-elimination tourney, risking the alienation of all their fans (as opposed to now?). Furthermore, Simmons believes that the prospect of a team in the cellar sneaking in and grabbing an number eight seed would make for a wonderful story, and he is right. The Celtics could turn it on for two weeks, steal a playoff spot, and make a deep run. However unlikely that may be, Simmons’ system makes it a possibility.

Yet the flaws with this system are just too many. First of all, to have this tourney, you’d either have to extend the regular season further, only continuing to dilute the significance of earlier regular season games, or cancel around two weeks of games for the league’s best 12 team. Stern would never agree to this. It would mean two weeks where fans are forced to watch teams like New York and Minnesota at the expense of Phoenix and Chicago. You think TV ratings are low now? Imagine if for two weeks in the season, fans couldn’t watch the best teams and the best players. You know what they would do? Turn their TVs off, and some of them wouldn’t tune back in until the season was over. The second reason this idea would fail is because it would make the first few months of the season even less relevant. If the Grizzlies could lose 60 games and still make the playoffs, what’s the point of having a regular season at all. A system like this would put bad teams on even ground with mediocre teams, an unfair prospect on a number of levels.

Look, in a perfect world, I would make the season 22 games shorter (everyone plays everyone twice and each game means a whole lot more), remove the first round of the playoffs, and seed the teams 1-8. Not only would this eliminate clunkers from the playoff picture (sparing us from having to wait out series like Detroit/Orlando and Phoenix/Lakers), it would improve the play in later rounds by making fatigue less of a factor (and if you don’t think fatigue is a factor in the finals then you didn’t watch fro 2004-2006). Of course, this plan would never be implemented because it would cost the league over 100 games worth of TV time. And that’s my point, the issue is not whether or not the league can be fixed, it can. The issue is whether the league can find a way to fix the problems that the fans have while maintaining an equally successful business model. Frankly, I’m not sure if that’s possible. In this day and age, the quality of a product is just one of the many factors that go into corporate decision making. It would be nice if McDonalds made their burgers taste better, but that would cost more money. Similarly, the league will only make drastic changes if they will increase revenue, and I’m not convinced any of the changes discussed above could do that. And that is why I am very worried about the future of our league.

Game 3 Notes

2007-06-12T20:03:00.000-05:00

-Playing the Empire’s theme from Star Wars when the Spurs were introduced? Brilliant. You could tell some of the Spurs were having trouble keeping a straight face… Matt Bonner just broke up laughing.

-The Cavs tried to be classy with the benching of Larry Hughes, instead it came off as disingenuous. By claiming that the lineup change was due entirely to Hughes’ decision, they forced it to make it seem like his foot was worse than it was. Now he can’t play, he’s stuck in a suit. I think all parties would have been happier if the Cavs had been up front about the necessary lineup change, they could have utilized Hughes for a few minutes here and there, which he is definitely good for.

-Other than the fact that Gibson is actually starting, the biggest defensive change for the Cavs is that Gibson seems to be going over screens while guarding Parker. Now, traditioanlly, you go over screens on jump shooters and under on players looking to penetrate, going under usually gives a better angle to cut off the dribble. However, the Cavs are looking to trap off the pick and roll, and by sending Gibson over the screens they allow the trap to come more quickly. However, they are also making Gibson work harder, and setting themselves up for a couple of hand-check calls.

-Its midway into the first and the Cavs are doing a much better job on the glass, especially on the offensive end. This is the one area where they have the advantage over San Antonio and if they can keep it up they have a chance to win. Offensive rebounds give the Cavs extra possessions, every rebound represents another chance to get a good shot. Because the Spurs are so great at forcing teams into missed shots, the Cavs need all the chances they can get. The ability to get offensive rebounds is always important for the Cavs, its all the more important against a team like the Spurs

-If Tony Parker wins Finals MVP, are we going to be subjected to a David Stern speech about how this truly signifies the international, global nature of the NBA? Ten bucks says we will be. At least its better than his various verbal hand jobs to Michael Jordan during the 1997-1998 season.

-This game is playing right into the Cavs’s hands. A forty point half for both teams? What more could they ask for? Unfortunately, the Spurs might just be the best slow tempo team in the league (it just happens that they can play fast too). Still, the Cavs are outplaying San Antonio on both ends, the Spurs need to get it together because the Cavs are more than capable of stealing this game away from them.

-Bruce Bowen makes for a good interview. Its too bad he gets such a bad rep for his style of play. But, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, all great on-ball defenders utilize tricks and play ‘dirty’ sometimes. Jordan did it, Kobe does it, I do it… the list goes on.

-Wow, I didn't update once in the second half, I was just that riveted. Truth be told, other than the finish, which was fun, this was pretty crappy basketball. The Cavs played fairly well at times, but their offense is just so stagnant you wouldn’t notices. Meanwhile the Spurs didn’t help out the game’s aesthetic quality by playing down to the level of competition. I’d rather watch one team play well in a blow out than this, does anyone not agree?

-Terrible no-call at the end there. It didn’t exactly cost the Cavs the game, but there’s a possibility it might have (Van Gundy says James would have gotten the continuation but I just can’t imagine that). People are going to be talking about this for days, and it will only take away from the Spurs’ eventual victory.

-Can we just forgo handing out MVP? After a game like this who deserves it?

-Props to the Cavs front line tonight for the job the did on Duncan and on help defense in general. Bigger props to Sasha Pavlovich for his amazing job on Manu tonight. If the Cavs have a future, it will be through his development as the Pippen to Lebron’s Jordan (and to Varejao’s Horace Grant). Mark my words, if this team is contending in 4 years its because these two international players have lived up to their talent.

What more can I say

2007-06-10T22:40:00.000-05:00

-It’s a funny thing, half way through the game I thought to myself, I really had it wrong the other day talking about a typical Spurs blowout, the deficit was just too high. And then, it happens again! If you're a Cavs fan you walk away saying "see! We can run with these guys!" If you're a Spurs fan you walk away saying, "We were never not in control of this game, comeback or no!" If you are the rest of the NBA you wonder whether this was really control or whether this was a borderline collapse.

-Another thing I take away from this game is how important it is to have a big man who could pass. For all his size and athleticism, one of the most important element of Shaq’s game is that he has great hands and hit almost anyone, anywhere on the floor. As cool as it is to make an on-target ally-oop pass from half court, it is equally difficult to make a skip pass out of a double team. It is not enough to take a dominant post player and surround him with perimeter scorers, that big man needs to be able to pass. One of the reasons the Knicks never took it to the championship level in the 1990s was that Patrick Ewing is not a phenomenal passer (though he is certainly better than Eddie Curry). Duncan, like Shaq, is vastly underrated in his ability to see the double team coming, and make the appropriate pass. He certainly showed it tonight, racking up 8 assists. His passing ability allows the entire offense to run through him without worry of bad shot or turnover. Think about how great of an asset it is to be able to initiate your offense from the post area as opposed to from beyond the arc. Instad of having to go outside in, everything becomes inside out, allowing for more threes and more dump passes to guys cutting through the lane. Without big man passing, the Spurs would not be leading the NBA in 3 pointers this post-season.

-James really responded tonight, finishing with 25-6-7 in just 38 minutes of game time. Does this mean that he has ‘figured out’ everything Bowen and the Spurs are going to throw at him? No. But I like the fact that he could pick out the defensive weaknesses mid series, by the end of the career he will be able to do this mid game.

-Anderson Varejao just amazes me with his constant effort. He is not exactly intimidating built, yet he is supremely effective in pushing and shoving his way into rebounding position. He is also becoming adept at sliding over to contest everything. His weakness? Speed. Duncan just constantly blazed by him off the dribble (‘blazed by’ is not a phrase often associated with Timmy).

-Clearly, my call before the series to give Elson some more minutes went unheralded. He had 3 fouls in 13 minutes. Still, he netted 3 boards and shot 3-3, not a terrible outing. I really like this man’s game, he is a great backup center, and a wonderful third string center (which is how the Spurs play him).

-Jacque Vaughn and Eric Snow need to have a fight to the death for who is the most offensively challenged point in the league.

-Ladies and gentleman, we had a Beno Udrih sighting! After having a fairly good ’05 post season, Udrih was completely thrown under the bus, and is clearly at odds with Pop. He’s a talented young guy though, I hope they trade him to somewhere he can develop a bit more.

What's Gotten into Robert Horry (and other first half observations)

2007-06-10T21:16:00.000-05:00

Game Two is half over, and the Cavs have about half the Spurs score. Of course, I didn't expect the game to be anything like this, but the way the Spurs are playing is exactly what they did in game 1 and the rest of the playoffs (but better). So there's really not much worth noting, its all just a day at the River Walk. First of all, what the hell is wrong with Robert Horry? He's not supposed to come on until the game's waning minutes, yet he has played phenomenally, with three blocks, and a whole bunch of boards.

-Tony Parker is just waltzing into the lane. What is wrong with the Cavs' front line? Where is Drew Gooden's help defense? I join Jeff Van Gundy in being absolutely blown away by the Cavs' ineptitude.

-When he airballed the FT, I really thought that Bowen had just broken Lebron James. Clearly, I was wrong. He is still not playing well, but he has forced himself back into this game. The emphatic dunk and the string of good hard drives show that this young man is not as easily daunted as I thought.

-Harvey Araton had a nice piece in the New York Times today where he asks whether the Spurs would have the same reputation if they played in New York. He certainly has a point. The Bulls were predictable, running their offence through a single player. The Lakers of the 2000s were predictable, running a bunch of plays that involved only two players. The NBA is a part of the entertainment business, and reputation is a facade. Nothing about the Spurs reputation has anything to do with what they actually do on the court. I just posted at length about this at Five Tool Tool. EDIT: True Hoop has some more on the same issue (and cites the same article). It seems that this season has seen a growing amount of voices calling for more Spur appreciation. Lets see how they are depicted next season (I expect the league and the fans to embrace the 'bad guy' persona, booing the Spurs in every arena).

Continuing the classics

2007-06-10T10:46:00.001-05:00

Up till 4 am last night watching Knicks/Rockets, I wake up just in time to watch the last three minutes of the 1998 finals. The first thing that comes to mind is just how god awful Bob Costas is as a play by play guy. For the three years between 1997 and 2000, Marv Albert's legal trouble had him temporarily fired, and apparently NBC thought that Bob Costas would make for a good replacement. Every time there has been a shot attempt in these last two minutes COSTAS RAISES HIS VOICE TO ENHANCE THE DRAMA. Usually, when media outlets show great moments in playoff history (Willis in 1970 for example) we get the video put over the live announcing. In the case of the last Jordan shot, no one ever plays Bob’s crappy live announcing, forgoing it in favor what he said over the second replay (“If this is the last shot of Michael Jordan’s career…”). His voice should be limited to voice over.

-I wonder if the Bulls second 3 peat could have happened without Dennis Rodman. Rodman guarded the west coast's second best 4 in 1996 (Sean Kemp) and did a terrific job. Then, in 1997 and 1998, he limited (but didn't shut down) the great Karl Malone.

-I feel terrible for Jerry Sloan. That man deserves so much (such as a Coach of the Year!). The look on his face when he congratulated MJ looks like “we can get it next year without you,” but they never did. He and John Stockton are going to be forgotten, and that tears my heart out.

-In my memory, and if David Stern's post game speech is anything to go by, it seems like 1998 was just a series of David Stern handjobs for Michael Jordan.

-In 1999 the Knicks played with so much fire it is just a joy to watch today. I mean, its been clear from the opening tip how poorly the matched up with the Spurs that year, but they kept it close by making San Antonio's defense work through constant help and rotations. Larry Johnson really busted his balls (though ultimately failing) in his defense of Tim Duncan. There are a couple of possessions where all he did, and all he could do, was just muscle Duncan off the block. These days, no one is able to push Duncan around like this, but it does seem that early in his career, Duncan often didn't have his legs under him. No wonder people often doubted whether he could make the adjustment and win Without David Robinson, he didn't always play like a big center.

-Doug Collins just compared Sprewell and Kobe in their ability to drive baseline. Remember those days Knicks fans? The good old days when Sprewell (or anyone on the Knicks for that matter) was good enough to even be mentioned in the same sentence as Bryant? Now I don't think there's a single Knicks player good enough to be compared to an all-star.

-Words do not describe

Turn on ESPN Classic

2007-06-09T21:24:00.000-05:00

Tonight and tomorrow on ESPN Classic, they’re showing a marathon of classic games from NBA finals series of years past. Game five of Bulls/Lakers from 1991 just finished and got me thinking about how different the basketball landscape in the early 1990’s would have been had Magic not retired (or gotten sick). The Lakers, still rebuilding from the loss of Jabbar, were fortunate to have a young Elden Campbell (who exploded for 20+ in the game I just watched), the talented Vlade Divac, and Sam Perkens. Those were three quality centers. Combine that with A.C. Green and you have the making of a great front line. Magic, of course, was still in his prime, and you have to think the Lakers would have contended for years to come. Some other points about 1990’s basketball as I watch these games:

-People complain about bad calls these days, well I hate to break it to everyone but refs have been screwing up for years. One sequence in the fourth quarter of this game really blew my mind. Jordan and Campbell get tangled up fighting for a loose ball and a jump is called. Jordan gets up and starts screaming that he had called time out, and immediately, without even consulting the rest of the officiating team, the ref changes the call. If that had happened to Dwayne Wade in the finals last year there would have been riots on the streets of Dallas. EDIT: Lightning struck again in the fourth quarter of game six in 1992. Drexler fumbles the ball, Scottie Pippen looks at the refs and indicates a travel, and after a slight hesitation the call is made. Unbelievable.

-Scottie Pippen was a terrific rebounder. Watching him in these past two games (I’m now checking out the 1992 finals) brings Sean Marion to mind. He gets his rebounds less by taking his man out of position and more by using his length and athleticism creatively to snatch rebounds from opponents boxing him out. In the mid 90’s there was a camp of people who argued that Pippen was the second best player in the league behind Jordan. Back then I thought it was a crazy thought, but watching him today makes me not so sure, he was truly a complete player in every sense of the word. Was he better than Karl Malone, Gary Payton, Grant Hill, Olajuwon, or some of the decade’s other greats? I don’t think so, but you have to put him at least in the same category.

-Terry Porter really ran an exciting offence. This Portland team pushed the ball so effectively, and with Drexler’s athleticism, they were really a joy to watch. (Its funny to watch Drexler skying all over with youth-like athleticism, only to see him turn around and witness the huge bald spot. Its like watching a grandfather suddenly realize he can jump.) Not only did Portland run the floor effectively (99 possessions per game), they did it with the league’s second best defense (per 100 possession). Watching this team makes me more excited for my upcoming ‘best of the rest’ list because it’s a squad I never really appreciated. In the three seasons from 1990-1992, the Blazers lost in the Finals twice and in the Conference Finals once, one of the best squads in those early years of the Jordan era. Its amazing what wining a championship can do to a team’s legacy.

-Knicks/Rockets game seven is on now (2am). I skipped the second half of the '93 Game six in order to be fresh for this one. I haven't watched this game since I was eight years old when it was first played, and after watching the pre-game intros, I can tell you that the magic is still there. I felt a tug at my heart when my Knicks came out, and the moment Hakeem showed his face, I seethed with jealousy for just a moment.

-The game is over and, emotionally drained, I head for bed. But not before making this comparison. In 1994, Pat Riley had a player in John Starks who played through injury to help New York make the championship. Game 7 rolls around and Starks has one of the worst shooting performances of his career. As each 3-poiner grazes off the rim, New York fans world wide (including announcer Marv Albert) look down the Knicks bench to young Hubert Davis. Davis, a young man who has proven himself to be a great shooter, barely plays, sitting along side fellow guard Rolando Blackman. Riley hesitates to make the switch because of loyalty to his veteran, who deserves admiration for playing through injury. Starks ends up shooting 2/18, possibly costing the Knicks the championship. It is now 13 years later and a veteran point guard (Larry Hughes) on the overmatched Cavs team is starting and playing at the expense of exciting young Boobie. Loyal to his pg, Brown has said he will not make the lineup change because Hughes has battled through injuries so valiantly. Yet perhaps Brown should heed the words of Riley, who now calls playing Starks so much in games 6 and 7 the biggest mistake in his coaching career. Loyalty is a wonderful thing to see, but I bet if you asked Starks today, he would have rather won the championship on the bench than been faced with the disgrace of losing on the floor.

Things to Look for in Game 2

2007-06-09T13:08:00.000-05:00

First of all, thanks to Jerusalem Joe for showing me how to do this

EDIT: Got It!!

Game one went exactly the way I figured it would the other night. It was a typical Spurs blowout, where they go up big to enter the fourth and then allow the lead to dwindle in the name of energy conservation. Seriously, the Spurs have invented a new type of domination, one where the final score doesn’t show the sheer depth of command the Spurs had over the game. Consider: Most would acknowledge that the Spurs have played dominant basketball this post season, yet of their 13 wins, only three were double figure victories. In game five in the Denver series the Spurs closed out by 15, leaving no doubt that they belonged in the second round. In games 4&5 against Utah, the Spurs had something to prove after they were drubbed by 26, so they won by 12 and 25. However, this is not to say that the Spurs were playing in close games all the way, only three of their games were won by two possession or less (and only game 5 in Phoenix was a one possession game by the end, the Spurs won by three). Other than those six games, the Spurs have won two games by seven points, two by eight points, and three games by nine. What this tells me is that they are proficient at knowing exactly how much of their lead they have to protect to ensure the win. A stat I’d like to see is the amount the Spurs have led after three quarters, but I haven’t been able to find it on either ESPN, 82games.com or basketball-reference.com (my sources for most statistics). Still, from the games I’ve seen, it always seems like the Spurs are up more at the end of the third than at the end of the fourth. Usually, it seems that they lose some of the lead in the fourth quarter (like in Game 1 of the Finals), but apply the breaks on the other team just enough to make sure they always keep the game out of reach. Of course, it is possible to interpret this as a team that easily gives up 4th quarter leads, but the Spurs always win these games, and seem to do it in a way that never makes the outcome in doubt.

A couple of things I’ll be looking forward to seeing in game 2:

How is Lebron going to adjust to the Spurs coverage? You know he will, but you also have to think that Popovich has other defensive schemes he’s going to be using. I hope to see a bit of a chess match between Bron Bron and the Spurs’ gurus on the bench.

I know Mike Brown has made it clear that Larry Hughes is his starting pg, but I cannot fathom him not giving Gibson more minutes. I want to see what Gibson does with these minutes and whether the Spurs have enough to put the clamps on him too.

Another Hughes related note. At this point, it is clear the Lebron is out defending Larry. Brown had some success when he stuck Lebron on Tony Parker and hid Hughes in the corner guarding Bruce Bowen. Clearly, with Hughes hobbling, this was a nice band aid in game one to stop some of the bleeding, but I don’t have faith that Lebron can effectively guard Tony for the rest of the series and keep up his energy on the offensive end. Who is Mike Brown going to go to that has the lateral quickness to keep up with Parker. Might we have another Eric Snow sighting?

Big Z is not going to score two points again. The question is, will he get enough help from the perimeter to keep the Spurs from camping out around him?
All in all, game two should be fascinating; I expect a bunch of adjustments from the Cavs and some interesting countermoves from San Antonio.

Best of the rest?

2007-06-06T16:41:00.000-05:00

Hollinger strikes again with a great list posted today on espn.com. Hollinger uses a mostly bullshit formula to rank the 60 NBA finalists of the past 30 years. His formula is absurd, it weights all regular season wins equally, doesn't account for quality of competition, and is arbitrary with how much it weights scoring differential. Still, his results echo common sense, and make a couple of things painfully clear: The best teams in history were the 90's Bulls (by far), followed by the Celtics and Lakers of the mid 80's, the Pistons of the late 80's, and the Lakers and Spurs of this decade. The Rockets of the 90's and the Pistons of 2004 are two of the teams that were ranked much lower than I expected.

Anyway, according to the list, the best 'runner up' was the 1997 Jazz, followed by the 1998 Jazz, and the 1996 Sonics, which shows how strong the Western conference was in the mid 1990s. It also reminded me of an idea I had, to track through the many teams that were consistently among the NBA's elites, but failed to win a title. The Jazz and Sonics are definitely among these, as are the Kings of the early 2000s, and the Knicks of the 1990s. Who else deserve to be included? Right now I'd have to say the Mavs of the past few years deserve consideration, as do Clyde Drexler's Blazers.

Any others?

Remember the Spurs

2007-06-06T12:28:00.001-05:00

“Tim Duncan is the best player of this generation.” Right now, you read this all over the internet, sports writers have been heaping praise on Duncan and the Spurs since their ousting of the Suns in the Conference Semifinals. Though the above statement has been manifest since around 2004, for a while there was a collective Alzheimer’s in the media regarding the accomplishments of this man and his team. All of that has suddenly changed. Whether it is because of the appalling (from some perspectives) lack of star power since round 1, or whether it is an attempt to make the public forget about the Spurs’ dubious win against Phoenix, sports writers in all avenues are suddenly figuring out what the rest of us have known for years: Duncan’s Spurs deserve to be recognized side by side with, if not above, Shaq’s Lakers as the best team of this era.

And yet, for all the praise going around these days, this is not how the Spurs are going to be remembered. Assuming Lebron James ends up sustaining his level of play and enters into the pantheon of over hyped NBA greats, Duncan and the Spurs will either be the faces of that insurmountable opponent that frustrated young Lebron’s first attempt, or they will forever be known as the giant that the young one felled at the tender age of 22. I compare it to the way we look at those great late 80’s Pistons teams. Today, we look at them as the obstacle that Jordan had to get over to become great. We don’t often remember the Pistons as their own team, instead placing them in the context of the Jordan legacy. I feel as though, win or lose, this is how the 2007 San Antonio Spurs will be remembered. Not that they care of course. It is well known that the Spurs care only about winning and Tony Parker’s rap career—reputation pales in comparison.

Even if Pop and Co will never admit to caring about their place in history, I wonder if the basketball world is doing itself a disservice. What the Spurs have done in the past 9 years is nothing short of remarkable. Their accomplishments have been muted for a number of reasons (such as the fact that they have failed to win two years in a row), but the fact is, they have been among the favorites to win a title every year. In 2000, they would have gone deep into the playoffs but for Tim Duncan’s foot injury that resulted in the champs getting ousted in round one. In 2001 and 2002 they were in a period of transition, they’re roster had huge changes between their 1999 and 2003 titles. Still, they remained the best team outside of California (I would have loved to see a Spurs/Kings series during these years. Could you imagine Tim Duncan going at Chris Webber in his prime?). In 2004 they would have won the title if not for that highly deflating Fischer shot and the resulting losses. (By the way, does anyone else see parallels between the Lakers/Spurs series in 2004 and the Mavericks/Heat series last year? In both cases, a team loaded with veterans found itself down, and rallied after a close victory to sweep the rest of a series against a superior team. Just a thought) In 2006, despite Tim Duncan’s severe foot injury, they played as well as ever, falling to a healthier, younger, and perhaps better Dallas team. People talk all the time about Jordan’s flu game, well Duncan had the plantar fasciitis season! I don’t expect people to suddenly give San Antonio their due, its much too late for that, but I hope that 20 years from now, we realize that we were witness to a wonderful era in basketball history, a time when the San Antonio Spurs defined success.

EDIT: Need confirmation of my fear? Kevin Pelton of supersonics.com, in his NBA Finals preview, writes: "Still, as Cleveland prepares to face San Antonio in the first NBA Finals in franchise history, the series is seen as largely about James. Will this be the first step towards his legacy or champion or another learning lesson along that path?"

Cavs/Spurs

2007-06-04T14:45:00.000-05:00

Who saw this coming? Well the guys at thepaintedarea.com for one, but few others. My instincts tell me that San Antonio will have no problem, but I'm tired of sleeping on the Cavaliers, who I think pose some interesting match up difficulties for the Spurs. In fact, both teams have questions in matching up with their foe:

Where will Lebron get his points? While the Pistons were known as a great defensive team, they did not show it in the conference finals. The Spurs’ interior D is not going to give up the kind of penetration that Rasheed Wallace felt compelled to ignore in game five. Furthermore, San Antonio’s disciplined rotation schemes are going to allow them to recover when Lebron penetrates and dishes, I don’t expect Gibson to go off game 6 style against the Spurs. Because of these two factors, Cleveland is going to live and die by Lebron’s midrange jump shot. Over the course of the Pistons series, James has shown that he has the ability to take, and make, the types of difficult shots that Kobe is known for. With Bowen covering him, James is going to have a tough time muscling his way into the post, and Duncan’s help is going to stop easy buckets off penetration. Until the Spurs start to send hard doubles at Lebron (on cnnsi.com, Tony Parker claims that the Spurs are opting for single coverage to start), James’ best scoring opportunities are going to come from jump shots. If Lebron can continue to make these, a lot of pressure will be taken off the rest of Cleveland’s offense. Something to note is that this is the first time throughout the playoffs that Bowen gets a defensive assignment that will rely on his strength more than his (diminished) quickness. While I expect Bowen to do better here than he did with his stints on Deron Williams, he has had trouble with Kobe in the past and might have more trouble with Lebron that people expect.

Who guards Tim Duncan and can Varejao fit into the offense? The way I see it, Duncan is too quick for Ilgauskas, and much too big for everyone else in the Cavs starting five. I expect hard doubles as long as Varejao is off the floor. However, Varejao has shown himself to be one of the league’s more reliable post defenders, and if he can deal with Duncan single coverage, the Cavaliers will be much better for it. With Varejao the question is, and always has been, whether he can play without bogging down Cleveland’s offence. I expect Varejao to get major minutes in this series, perhaps even more than the 26 he averaged in the Detroit series, it will be interesting to see how Cleveland’s offense works with him on the floor (can you even run the pick and roll with him, or do you send him to the far corner, running the P&R with Gooden instead?).

How do the Spurs guard the Cavs front line and which Drew Gooden will we see? I expect the Spurs to put Duncan on Gooden and use Oberto and Elson to use their quickness to bother Big Z. I think Elson will be especially useful in using his length, he is one of the few guys with arms long enough to really bother Ilgauskas. In the Utah series, however, it was Oberto who got the bulk of the minutes (31), while Elson languished on the bench. Pop has shown great aptitude at playing each of his center’s to their strengths, using them when the match up is most appropriate, thus I expect to see more of Elson this series, at least on defense (see below). Related to this is the question of Gooden, who has played significantly worse as the playoffs have gone on. Gooden netted only 9 ppg in the Pistons series, down from 14 in the Washington series. Even more important is the dip in rebounding, Gooden went from grabbing 10 a game in the first two rounds to just 5 in the Conference Finals. Its not like Duncan is going to make his life easier either, Timmy is, after all, one of the world’s best post defenders. However, if Duncan is forced to slide over and help on James’ penetrations, perhaps Gooden will get a few more open looks than he did with Wallace on him. Wallace was loath to slide over and help (explaining Lebron’s lay-up clinic in game 5), but the Spurs are going to want Duncan to help, giving Gooden a few open looks.

Should the Spurs run? YES! The Spurs are not known as a running team, but they are starting to get a reputation as a team that can play at any speed, shown most clearly in the Phoenix series this year. The Cavs defense absolutely smothers the pick and roll, as we saw against New Jersey, and I expect them to give Parker and Duncan trouble when they attempt to run the Spurs’ offense. In fact, with their combination of front court quickness and back court size, the Cavs are better equipped to deal with San Antiono’s pick and roll than any team not from Dallas. If their bread and butter isn’t their, how will the Spurs respond? How about going small, playing stretches with Parker, Manu, Bowen, Finley/Barry, and Duncan/Oberto, running the ball and forcing Cleveland to take one of their bigs off the floor? Parker and Ginobili form one of the best (and most underrated) running back courts in the game, and with Finley or Barry to spread the floor and Duncan and Oberto sprinting to finish long passes, the Spurs might want to do their Phoenix imitation in an effort to win the series.

All and all, I think Cleveland presents and interesting challenge for San Antonio, but the Spurs are playing as well as they ever have. Besides, San Antonio always wins in the odd years!

Spurs in 6

I'm a (reluctant) Witness

2007-06-01T14:06:00.000-05:00

A full week without a real post, I apologize. A number of bullets about the Cavs/Pistons series, and later this weekend I’m going to want to discuss the sudden surge of interest in the San Antonio Spurs:

-Lebron James is good, very very good. Scoring 29 out of his team's last 30 points , 48 total, was no mean feat and he should be acknowledged for the offensive weapon that he is. Furthermore, he has completely undermined what I wrote about him after game 2 (“is Bron Bron playing offense like a super talented version of Eddie Jones?”). The level of difficulty on those types of shots were exactly the type of shots I accused him of not being able to convert. The ability is there, the domination is there, and I truly believe this young man has shifted into another gear during this series.

-People need to stop bashing Mike Brown as a crappy coach. 75% of coaching is not the adjustments you make in the game but the preparations you make before it. Mike Brown has a superstar who has the tools to be a good defender but often lapses and a largely immobile starting center, yet he has crafted a defensive juggernaut. He reminds me Jeff Van Gundy’s work with the Knicks in the early Alan Houston era, where he kept the Knicks defensively dominant as a team with a lineup that consisted of poor individual defenders. Mike Brown has demonstrated a immense strength in getting his team on the same page defensively, instilling the discipline needed for the team to take the Pistons machine off their offensive game. Is he poor at planning his timeouts? Yes. But this team is here largely because of the creative ways he has used his lineup. This is a team of role players, players who are good at one or two things. Brown has played to this identity, creating a team that is very good at two things (offensive rebounding and defense) and poor at everything else. Give Brown credit, he is about to take a mediocre squad to the NBA finals.

-Is Cleveland wins on Saturday, can we call it a 6 game sweep? Cleveland has outplayed Detroit in every single game, including games 1 and 2. That said, I cannot fathom Detroit not getting their game together somehow, they are too good to go out like this.

-Prince does not have the quickness to stay with Lebron. When James decided to stop taking jumpers and penetrate, Prince was going to need help. There were sequences where the Pistons went to either a zone or a hard double team at the top of the circle. Yet on the biggest play of the night, they opted for single coverage, and for some reason pulled away the help defense. Why? Flip Saunders is the opposite of Mike Brown. While Brown has created a strong man-to-man team out of spare parts, Saunders inherited one of the most talented collection of man-to-man defenders in the league and over two years has made them a team that needs a zone or a double to thrive. THEN, to compound the problem, he opts not to double when it is needed? I said this last year, and I will say it again now, Saunders is a terrible playoff coach. With the T-Wolves it took the intensity of Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell to get that team out of the first round, and he is about to lose to an inferior team yet again. He does not spark the Pistons the way that Larry Brown and Rick Carlisle did earlier in the decade. For the second year in a row the Pistons are fighting, there are divisions between coaching staff and roster, and the head coach is doing nothing to quell it. Win or lose, Saunders needs to be fired.

-I'd still take a healthy Wade over a healthy Lebron... as of right now, ask me again next spring.

-One last point. I’ve been bloggin for a bit over a month now. I’d love some feedback. If you are reading this, post a comment or two, lets get some discussions going!

EDIT: Took most of the afternoon, but I found someone who shares my feelings about Flip Saunders (http://mgoblog.blogspot.com/2007/06/flip-saunders-is-idiot.html). And while I'm pleading for people to offer comment, allow me to also ask someone, anyone, to teach this computer illiterate how to post a link. Thanks.

Insight into Tim Duncan

2007-05-25T15:48:00.000-05:00

http://www.washtimes.com/sports/20070525-124024-1139r_page2.htm

Pistons/Cavs Notes

2007-05-24T22:41:00.000-05:00

-Is it possible that I have been completely mistaken about Cleveland? After two closely fought Cleveland losses, it appears as though Lebron James and his ragtag band of role players absolutely belongs on the NBA’s elite stage. Cleveland’s near success begins and ends with the play of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who is averaging seven offensive rebounds a game this series. He has been an absolute monster on offense as well, averaging 22 points, just under double his season average. His presence in the post opens up the floor for the Cavalier guards. While the Pistons limited him to three points on 1-6 shooting, he remained an impact player during his limited playing time.

-Lebron James did a much better job getting to the basket, playing another strong all around game. Still, he continues to struggle against longer defenders, showing a relative inability to create his own shot. Maybe the expectations are too high on this guy. The league slept on him last year and he exploded, now everyone has been able to adapt their defense to make his life harder. Is it just me, or is Bron Bron playing offense like a super talented version of Eddie Jones? Frankly, he has not shown the ability and the range to make the types of shots that define the careers of guys like Kobe Bryant and Gilbert Arenas.

-As a Tayshaun Prince fanatic, I am really disturbed by his 1-19 shooting performance (0-8 tonight). Clearly, Lebron’s size is bothering him. Prince is so skinny he is being bumped off cuts and really feeling the effects of the contact. If the Pistons can get out a series victory with their glue guy playing like this, they should consider themselves lucky.

-I love Jason Maxiell, and have for a while (http://basketball-insight.blogspot.com/2007/05/utah-ds-up-huh.html). He single handedly kept Detroit early on in their atrocious first half. I don’t care what scouts have to say, the NBA does have a place for undersized, athletic power forwards (see: Barkley, Charles).

-How talented is Rasheed Wallace? Really, how many off balance mid-range jumpers off the wrong foot does he have to hit before people realize that he is one of the best five big men of the past decade? He is a brilliant player, and I love the way that he and Chris Webber work together. My only issue? While he is a great defender off the ball, he needs to regain his strong post defense. Anderson Varejao is scoring seemingly at will. Let me repeat that, Anderson Varejao, the man with the footwork of a DIII center is scoring at will.

-On behalf of the staff here at Ballintellectual, I send my condolences to the city of Boston.

-Looking over the stats from the past two games, I see that Drew Gooden has been an absolute non factor. Shooting only six shots and netting 5 boards, he is a far cry from the 14/10 guy we saw in the Washington series. With Varejao carrying some of the load, it is easy to overlook Gooden's absense, but he gives them a presence in the high post with his mid-range jumper that Varejao doesn't. His lack of production is a major reason that Cleveland is having troubles with its offense.

-EDIT: This is what passes for analysis these days? After two games, all the media is talking about are two end of game plays involving Lebron. Should he have passed (game 1)? Was he fouled (game 2)? What about Rasheed Wallace’s pair of great games? The sudden offence coming from Varejao? Lebron’s defense on Tayshaun Prince? Rather than helping fans understand the forces dictating these games, we are given half assed discussion of two plays among many. Maybe fans wouldn’t be so turned off be defense if media outlets took the time to help them understand what’s involved. Just a thought.

The Big Question? Really?

2007-05-22T09:21:00.000-05:00

-ESPN’s Chris Sheridan questions whether Lebron should have passed up his drive with less than ten seconds left in Cleveland’s 2 point loss last night (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dailydime-070522). Would it be impossible for Lebron to get and1 against three players? No, its happened before. But lets face it, Prince was forcing him left, right into the waiting arms of Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton. You HAVE to pass that ball, Detroit’s entire zone was on the left side of the court. Zone-busting 101 tells you that the pass to the right corner or wing is the BEST pass to make. Lebron made exactly the right decision, but on a night when the Pistons took the king off his game, his teammates often let him down.

-Another Lebron-related observation. Bron Bron started on Prince. The Pistons immediately isolated Prince on the wing, utilizing Davis and Wallace to set hard down screens on the week side to open up Billups and Hamilton. Unable to use his size to disrupt Prince, the Detroit Forward was able to either make the right pass or take it strong to the basket (9 asts, 6-6 from the line). Kobe would have stopped that, Jordan would have stopped that, hell, Sasha Pavlovic even helped stop that, the Cavs moved him onto Prince by the second quarter. Lebron is not a good defender, on or off the ball. This makes Mike Brown even more of a defensive genius, he is playing 1st class defense and his best player is a 3rd class defender.

-Who has been the best player in these playoffs? Baron Davis, Tim Duncan, and Steve Nash all make good cases. Davis and Duncan have elevated their games (Duncan does this EVERY YEAR and NOBODY talks about him like he’s a big time player. When they need to be, his shots are better and his passes are crisper.) Lebron? Mediocre for much of the playoffs. Bryant didn’t last long enough. Detroit survives because each of its five starters is an MVP in his own right. The best player, however, was Jason Kidd, who ended his playoff run averaging a triple double for two series. New Jersey, playing with out center Nenad Krstic is NOT a great team. Since his injuries, Richard Jefferson got scared and became a jump shooter. Vince Carter has stretches (seemingly at the worst time) where he suddenly loses motivation and composure (been an issue his whole career). Jason Kidd RUNS that team. Not only in the way that Nash does. Nash runs everything by virtue of having the ball in his hands. What Kidd does as a pg is similar to Nash, but he does even more on defense, when the ball isn’t in his hand. His size and defensive craftiness are what make the Nets a GREAT defensive team. Lawrence Frank is due credit for imbuing most of the roster with a defensive-minded toughness, but Kidd is the only one of Jersey’s guards who has not only the mentality but the skill to be a wonderful defender. Carter is working harder on defense than he ever has before, and Jefferson does his best with limited mobility, but neither is known as an absolute great defender. Outside of Mikki Moore, can you cite anyone on that roster who lives to play defense? Only Jason Kidd. Lebron James is a player blessed with Kidd-esque court vision, great handle, and an even better size-quickness combo. Still, he often comes up short when he’s not scoring (not last night though, see above), fails to defend consistently, and cannot run the break in the way that his skills allow (though this is mostly the fault of his coach and the Cavs’ system). After watching Lebron last night, my mind couldn’t help but return to the fact that Kidd’s performance this spring has been among the best of all time. Factor in that he is single handedly denying critics who call him too slow and old, and you have what could have been a GREAT story in rounds one and two. The NBA, ESPN, and other media outlets really dropped the ball in not covering Kidd more closely. I’m praying that New Jersey surrounds Kidd some more consistent shooters, a big man finisher (Krstic can fill this roll in a year or two), and some better perimeter defense, because Kidd deserves a legitimate shot at a title, and his time is running out.

Why doesn't anyone care about the Jazz?

2007-05-19T18:48:00.000-05:00

If a playoff team fells a giant and no one pays attention, will it make a sound?

Everyone is complaining about the NBA’s post season, but everyone is looking for fun in the wrong places. America hates the Spurs and dislikes the Pistons, we get that. Cleveland, a defensive powerhouse with one exciting offensive player only gets positive press when Lebron is involved. But there’s a four seed in the conference finals, and no one wants to pay them any attention. I was looking at ESPN’s picks for some their earlier series, and I realized that the vast majority of the ‘experts’ picked Houston in the first round and Golden State in the second. Utah is exciting, young, they play with passion, they’re an underdog, and most importantly, they are GOOD. The media made a huge mistake giving all of its attention to Golden State, a decent team that got lucky match up wise in round one. Golden State wasn’t going anywhere, and no amount of Hollinger stats will change that. Utah, while not an underdog seed wise, has never gotten any attention, and thus people have been betting against them from day one.

Now, I happen to be a defense nerd, and so Detroit and San Antonio happen to be my two favorite teams to watch outside of NYC, but most fans don’t find them entertaining and they are complaining to anyone in earshot about the possibility of a San-Antonio/Detroit final. Stop bitching America, your team is right here! Sure, Utah is hurt because it is a small market, but playing in a big market is no longer a pre-requisite for exposure (see San Antonio, Indiana, Portland in the early 2000’s) . In the age of the internet, any team that plays well can get a degree of exposure. There is no excuse for the league and the media’s neglect of the Jazz. This is a great team, a team that came out of no where to be included in the top four teams in the league. This team has no where to go but up. As long as they stay healthy, Utah is going to become a mainstay in the conference elite as San Antonio ages. I don’t think they are going to take this series (my preview should be up later, if its not up before game one know that I’m picking the Spurs in 6), but the team has so much upside its scary. And yet, no one seems to care. If the impossible happens and the Spurs fall before this team, maybe America will finally turn its head and pay attention, but they should have done this already. The Jazz won a game seven on the road in their first playoff series as a team. You almost never see that. I expect great things from this squad and I hope that people start recognizing the same thing.

Detroit vs. Cleveland

2007-05-19T12:29:00.000-05:00

Much has happened in the NBA world since my last post, and it certainly appears as though most of America has written off the rest of the playoffs as a farce… which seems to happen every time the Spurs win the title. In the East, the conference finals feature a Detroit team that appears neigh unbeatable (aside from 5 halves in which they forgot how to play basketball). The ‘Stones face off against a coasting Cavs team. During their widely unappreciated series with New Jersey, the Cavs showed stretches where they played some of the best man-to-man defense I’ve seen all year. They remind me of the ’04 Pistons in their great ability to absolutely smother the pick and roll (the similarities stop there). During the regular season, the Pistons walked away with the series, winning three to the Cavs one. The Cavaliers only victory was a closely fought overtime contest in Detroit. It is going to be interesting how the Pistons play James, especially considering that he is the only player on that team who can hurt them. If they go to man, I don’t think any of the Pistons match up well with Bron Bron. Prince might hurt him with his length and quickness, but if Lebron mixes up his game and takes Prince into the post he might create havoc. I fully expect the Pistons to go zone, utilizing Prince in the middle to force James to stay on one side of the floor. On the other end, the Pistons are better equipped to match up with Cleveland’s man-to-man than anyone. Detroit has players able to score at all five positions and they move the ball well enough that each of those five can get looks. Detroit’s strength on offense is that it starts three of the best playmakers in the game (Billups of course, Webber, and the underrated passer, Rasheed Wallace). Last year, Cleveland (and Miami) was able to play off Ben Wallace, but they can’t do that with Webber. If any of Detroit’s players get doubled, they not only have plenty of options of where to pass, they have the ability and desire to make that good pass.

I’d like to call this a sweep in the Pistons’ favor, but time and again, Detroit has displayed a propensity to let down after a amassing a lead in a series. Though they are better than I expected, I still see remnants of the ‘flip-the-switch’ mentality that killed the Pistons last year, and often did them in the regular season this year. Still, if they drop more than one against Cleveland, I will be very surprised. Thus, I pick…

Detroit in 5

Rolling 'stones

2007-05-11T15:34:00.000-05:00

The Detroit Pistons are playing like a team on a mission. ESPN’s new morning show reported that they were unhappy about not being included among the league’s elite, and my question is, when did this team stop being one of the NBA’s elites? This is a team that has made the Eastern Conference finals (the NBA’s final four) the last four years in a row. Furthermore, five out of the past six years, Detroit has won the Central Division (the year they missed was 2004, when they won the title) The Spurs might have more championships, but other than them, Detroit is the closest thing to a dynasty the NBA has had in the past five years. Unlike last year’s playoffs, when they made it as far as they did purely on the weakness of the rest of the East, Detroit this year is playing like a champion. The Bulls were hot at the regular season’s end and in the first round, this is a good Chicago team. Apparently they are not good enough. Detroit is defending out of its mind, the Bulls guards are completely unable to figure out Detroit’s vice like zone. On offense, the Pistons starting line up, featuring five legitimate offensive threats, is coming together at just the right time, especially Tayshaun Prince, the best 3 (who plays like a 3) in this round (taking over for Deng last round). Most importantly is the focus Detroit is bringing every single night. According to reports, the Pistons’ players and opponents are citing a new level of intensity as the reason behind the Pistons’ improved play. No kidding. Entering the playoffs I wondered aloud about the Pistons’ ability to turn it on. As the regular season came to a close, they were not playing a high quality of basketball. The Bulls were by far playing like the better team. Seems as though the Pistons have gotten their game together at just the right time. They could win a championship at this clip.

#32, Tri-Captain, Herb Williams

2007-05-10T21:08:00.000-05:00

According to the NY Post Herb Williams is interviewing with the Bobcats for a head coaching job. They talk about how Williams has been garnering respect around the league. I am thrilled. Williams, always known as a class act, has been only a gentleman while providing hard work on the coaching staff of a fairly atrocious Knicks franchise. One of the only stable names in the Isiah era, Williams has been a great asset to this chaotic team. I hope Williams gets the head coaching job that he deserves, especially with guys like Doc Rivers out there getting contract extensions.

Western Dominance Manifest

2007-05-10T13:11:00.000-05:00

It’s a phenomenon that baffles and upsets many NBA fans, one that is difficult to explain, and difficult to demonstrate, but its also a universally accepted fact: The East is least, the West is best. Since Jordan hung up his sneakers, the NBA has had to struggle with the reality that basketball is just played better in the NBA’s western half. Today, the all-NBA teams were released, and surprise, surprise, not one of the players on the first team plays for an eastern conference squad (Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, and Amare Stoudemire). That’s not surprising, these are the five best players by position in the league right now. What’s surprising to me is how natural it feels. At no point in reading those names did I think, ‘wow, that’s kind of unfair that the east is unrepresented.’ It’s gotten to the point that it is just natural that the best players, and thus the best teams, are all located out west. But wait, you argue, two out of the last three championships were won by teams in the Eastern Conference. True though this may be, it had more than a little to do with the fact that while the Lakers (in 2004) and Mavericks (in 2006) were busy fighting through the Western gauntlet, the East’s elite face little competition in the first round, and often breeze through round two as well. The fact is, the West features more quality teams and players all the way through (well, at least seeds 1-8) whereas the east features duds every year (looking at your Orlando Magic).

Utah D's up Huh?

2007-05-08T11:43:00.001-05:00

-Yesterday’s Detroit/Chicago game was painful. Time and again, the Bulls’ post defense, held by me to among the league’s best, got burned by whoever got them down low. In 15 minutes of play, Jason Maxiell had 8 rebounds (lets keep watching this young man), and the Pistons’ starting front line had seven boards each (Rasheed Wallace did it in 18 minutes), all told, the Bulls got out rebounded 51-30, giving up 15 offensive boards. Meanwhile, the Bull’s started in some pathetic half court trap, in an effort to keep the ball out of Billup’s hands in transition. They accomplished that mission, but Tayshaun Prince did an admirable job bring the ball up court, giving it to Billups once the point guard was good and set. All in all, the Pistons were never taken out of their game, and the Bulls never looked like they were ever into it. I wonder if the Bulls are just content, I certainly hope not as I still believe that this team can take it to the finals if they get it together (and if the Pistons start slipping).

-Meanwhile, in Utah, we saw a game of contrasting styles indeed. Don’t let the triple digit score fool you, this game saw a back and forth where some stretches were played up tempo, and during others Utah was able to slow things down a bit. I was really surprised how well Golden State was able to bother Boozer, holding him to 6-15. Though, his 10 offensive rebounds, 20 overall, speak for themselves. I also immediately regret not putting Al Harrington in the scout, I didn’t think he could bounce back from the last series and I was clearly wrong. We are in for another good one involving the Jazz.

Warriors/Jazz

2007-05-06T22:08:00.001-05:00

The biggest benefactors of Utah’s game 7 victory over Houston? Well Utah of course. But Golden State was also thanking the basketball gods on Saturday night. While a match up with Houston would have been a nightmare, the Warriors are much better equipped to deal with this smaller Utah squad, and the result is going to be another closely fought series for both teams. There are question marks for each side. How will the Warriors deal with Utah’s big man duo? Dealing with Okur will be like dealing with Nowitzki, and as we’ve seen, the Warriors are well equipped to handle that. What about Boozer? An overlooked low post player for so many years (thanks to injuries), Boozer is coming into his own at just the right time. It is likely that Biedrins will see a lot of time guarding Boozer, and the young Latvian has shown that he is a more than capable defender. However, Boozer is so tough to guard because of he can score so many ways on the low block. With a reliable fade away, a solid dribble, and of course a huge build, Boozer reminds me in a lot of ways as a smaller, quicker, less skilled Tim Duncan. Needless to say, Golden State is going to have their hands filled down low. However, there are match up problems for Utah as well, namely, who is going to stop the ball and guard Baron Davis in transition? The best Utah defenders are their front line (which includes the versatile Kirilenko). But Kirilenko is not quick enough to guard Davis, and will likely be tasked with shutting down Stephen Jackson (a task for which he is very well equipped). Without a proper check, Davis might have free reign in transition, a huge problem for a team that’s trying to slow the tempo and control the pace. Both teams have pretty big issues, but considering the Jazz’s steadiness and the Warriors’ volatile nature, I’m gonna go with the higher seed.

Jazz in 7

Suns/Spurs

2007-05-06T15:12:00.000-05:00

The West’s marquee match up for this second round is now even bigger because the Mavs are out of the playoffs (feels kinda weird, doesn’t it?). This is a series that features perhaps the two best teams left in the playoffs, and pits the league’s best grind it out defense against its most efficient up tempo offense. As I talked about when discussing their first round match up with Denver, San-Antonio’s biggest strength is their ability to masterfully control the tempo of a game. Consider the fact that, during the regular season, Phoenix averaged 12 points less than normal against the Spurs. On the individual side, the Spurs defenders have taken most of Phoenix’s big guns off their game. Nash shot 30% from behind the arc against Tony Parker and whatever help the Spurs gave him, a 15% decrease from his season average. Shawn Marion struggles as well, with his FG% dropping to a ghastly 37%. The other member of the Suns big three, Stoudemire, is well recognized for having big games against San Antonio, especially during their last series in 2005 in which he blew up for over 35 a game. People are putting that stat all over the place, neglecting to point out that that series was never competitive. What happens is that when San Antonio slows the game down, the Phoenix offense becomes a pick and roll or two man game with Nash and Stoudemire. So Soudemire gets more touches against the Spurs, but that’s exactly what San Antonio wants. San Antonio is not perfect, this will not be a sweep, though I don’t think it will be so competitive either. Look for San Antonio to steal one on the road early, defend their home court, and pull it out in six.

San Antonio in 6

EDIT: Looking over old posts, I realize that I had first picked the Spurs to win in five. The only reason why I changed it was because to do so would require San Antonio to win two games, including an elimination game five, on the road. I think its more likely they drop two in Phoenix, but take care of business in Texas to send the Suns packing

New Jersey/Cleveland

2007-05-05T00:43:00.000-05:00

Though Detroit/Chicago will rightly be in the spotlight, the 2/6 match up between the Cavs and Nets will be a good one to watch as well. During the regular season, Cleveland took two out of three from New Jersey, with the home team winning each. The last game was a bit of a blowout, Cleveland took it by 18. My gut tells me that the Nets, with the way they have been playing, will take this series, but the stats tell another tale. Cleveland’s box score from the three games against the Nets reads like a normal Cavs game; nothing New Jersey did took Cleveland off its game. The numbers for both teams are close, and no one Cleveland player did significantly better or worse than normal. New Jersey, however, should be concerned if the season box is anything to go by. While Carter has been great against the Cavs, netting 27 a game on 53% shooting (50% from 3), the other two members of the big three haven’t done nearly as well. Kidd got 9 points a game against them, though this isn’t that concerning considering his 9 boards, 8 assists, and the fact that he’s playing at another level anyway. More concerning is Jefferson who is shooting 35% en route to 12 points a game. Clearly, Hughes has been doing his job on Jefferson. New Jersey is also averaging 18 turnovers against a stingy Cav defense, a far cry from the 14 New Jersey gets on a regular basis. If Richardson cannot find a way to pick up his shooting, the Nets will have very few options for spreading out the defense, allowing the Cavs to pack it inside to keep Kidd and Carter out of the paint. This one will be close, but I’m going to go with Cleveland.

Cavaliers in 6

Detroit vs. Chicago

2007-05-04T01:21:00.001-05:00

As I’ve said twice now already in this space, I’m really, really looking forward to this series. I picked Detroit in seven before the playoffs began and I’m sticking with that, though a lot of evidence points in the opposite direction. What’s going to be great about this series is that it showcases two great defensive teams with very different styles. Chicago’s defense is designed to lead to fast break opportunities. The Bulls pack the defense inside, forcing the opposing team to take outside shots, and then the quick Bulls guards grab the rebound and run with it. Detroit is quite the opposite. When they play man, they practically dare opposing guards to try to take them off the dribble or make an entry pass. Their perimeter defense is so tight its hard for either of those to happen, but its really the only way to beat them because it is so tough to get open looks from outside. While the Bulls like to push the tempo off missed shots, the Pistons like to set up their deadly, patient offence. As I pick a winner, I’m throwing all the stats out the window for this one. The fact of the matter is, this is a professional Detroit team, able to turn it on at the right time, which they have done. Before the playoffs began I questioned their ability to do just that, I worried that they might be coasting, but their domination of the Magic has shown me that my worries had no foundation. Like I said in my initial prediction, this series can go either way. I pick Detroit for their depth, and because Chicago, as a perimeter oriented team, fits right into their hands. But man will this be a good one.

Detroit in 7

The NBA is racially charged?

2007-05-03T11:37:00.000-05:00

First of all, second round starts Saturday, I should have match up breakdowns by tomorrow night. There are going to be two great games on TV tonight, and unless a miracle happens, I wont be able to watch either, major bummer. I’ll say this though, Houston and Utah are both playing great basketball, and I expect the Jazz to extend to seven tonight. I also expect Golden State to take care of business tonight, but if the Mavs win, I don’t think Golden State has the ability to win a game seven on the road.

The biggest story right now, or what should be the biggest story right now (honestly, what is Kobe doing on espn.com’s front page?) is the study done by Justin Wolfers, a business professor at Penn, and Joseph Price, a Cornell economics student. As you might have heard, these two analyzed foul calls and turnovers from 1991 to 2004 and found that referee teams (which are made of three people) that are predominantly white make 4.5% more calls on black players. While the opposite is also true (black refs calling more on white players) the effect there is much less and seems to be negligible.

Now, ever since David Stern has begun to remarket the league back in the mid ‘80s, the NBA’s racial make up has been relegated to elephant in the room, everyone sees it and no one in any official position talks about it. Because the NBA partially controls the content being aired on ESPN, TNT, and ABC, the major media outlets don’t address it much either. So when the New York Times propels race relations to the front page, the NBA quickly was up in arms with a reaction. The NBA produced its own study, written by unnamed ‘experts,’ which examined individual calls and claimed no bias. While the NBA’s study is useful in that it isolates individual referee’s calls, it has a much smaller data base (148,000 calls, that might not even be a full season), and its anonymous authorship coupled with the fact that it is produced in house and not by independent scholars makes it highly dubious.

Is race an issue in the NBA, with out a doubt. Race plays a role in much of what the NBA does as an organization, and some would argue that it has a lot to do with how the fans interact. The NBA is a league in which predominantly white league leadership oversees a predominantly black group of sports-entertainers for the benefit of a predominantly white fan base. There is a lot that can be said about this, and if anyone is interested, I highly recommend David Shields work Black Planet. (http://www.amazon.com/Black-Planet-Facing-During-Season/dp/0609806661) Shields, a professor at Washinton University, followed around the Seatle Sonics in the mid ‘90s, producing an insightful look at race’s role in the NBA and how it is addressed (or unaddressed) by the league, its players, and its fans.

So what about this new study? I cannot say I’m surprised. Everyone who takes an intro to psych class can tell you how powerful stereotype is when it operates on the subconscious. Referees are human beings, and they have their prejeduces, even if they do not foster them consciously or overtly. No one is claming that the NBA’s refs, or league officials for that matter, are racist, rather they are claiming that race plays a role in the NBA, just like it does (unfortunitly) everywhere else. I would like to be able to say that we live in a fully color blind world, I cannot. Certianly, the relationship between blacks and whites is nothing like it used to be, and as far as race relations go, I think this society has been heading in a good direction. But no one should expect that we can completely remove human prejudices, even from the most impartial observers. More important than the question of whether this study holds water or not, I think, is the issue of what should be done now. Is there a way to remove some of this prejudice? There must be, though I cannot think of anything practical anyone can do right now. Rather than outright denying these claims, the NBA should be working on ways of alleviating the problem, if it can. Of course, to do this would be to acknowledge that race is, indeed, a powerful force in the NBA, just as it is in all of society; but if the NBA took necessary steps to take care of this issue, it would speak volumes about its moral priorities as an organization. As it stands right now, Stern and his lawyers look like a bunch of scared business men trying to cover their asses.

Don't, Don't, Don't Believe the Hype

2007-05-02T00:34:00.000-05:00

Between now and Thursday, when the Mavs and Warriors battle again, there is going to be a lot of talk about Dirk, and how he ‘elevated his game,’ ‘silenced critics,’ etc. I think this says a lot about the relationship the media has with the NBA and how powerful they are in influencing how the game is sold. The media is trying to spin the series to tell us fans a story. It’s a story of emotion, where the emotionally charged Warriors are out-emoting the scared Mavs. Dirk Nowitzki, the erstwhile MVP is being bashed because he lacks the ‘fire’ to elevate his game. He is compared to the great scorers of all time and falls short, not because of a deficiency in his game, not because he is easily defended, but because of his ‘passion,’ his ‘drive,’ his ‘confidence.’ Then, like manna from heaven (from the league’s perspective), Dirk puts together his best game of the series in a do or die situation, and a new chapter is added to this heavily constructed story. Columns will come out tomorrow applauding Dirk for silencing the critics, ignoring the fact that the people writing these columns are the very critics he silenced. Folks, most of the people whose stuff you read (yes, even Bill Simmons) are writing for mass media outlets, most of which have close financial ties to the NBA. And so they spin, taking a complex series and telling it as a nice, neat, narrative.

Basketball, like all sports, is in large part a game of intensity, emotion does factor heavily into what these players do every night. That said, 67 win teams do not lose to 42 win teams on intensity alone. Make no mistake people, Dirk Nowitzki is as competitive as most. Not everyone is Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson, or Steve Nash (to name a few), but if you don’t think Nowitzki plays with fire than you aren’t watching closely enough. What’s hurting the Mavs is not an emotional deficiency, it has to do with a combination of a brilliant coaching job on the part of Don Nelson, the unique nature of Nowitzki’s game, and the fact that the Mavs just don’t match up well with the Warriors.

Don Nelson is of a unique mold among coaches in that he needs teams that can play to his style, he doesn’t coach to a team’s strengths (see Knicks, 1995). However, when blessed with the right type of lineup, he is among the best strategists in the game. When he was with Golden State the first time, and definitely during his stint with Dallas, Nelson was great at running the team in a way that emphasized his team’s ability. Add that to the fact that he is intimately acquainted with the Mavs’ personnel, and you have a recipe for a great coaching job. I could cite a number of things that he has done to hurt the Mavs, but let’s focus on how he is defending Dirk.

When people claim that Dirk Nowitzki redefined the 4 position, they say it because he has a unique playing style. Dirk is slow, he can be explosive off one dribble but does a poor job creating his own shot off the dribble. Despite his size, he plays best while facing the basket, and because of this can be very ineffective on the low block. And, of course, Dirk’s stroke combined with his size makes his shot nigh unstoppable. To play down his deficiencies, the Mavs usually run a 1-4 set, which means that Dirk gets the ball in the middle of the floor, while everyone else spreads out along the base line (1 player at the top, 4 players at the bottom). Usually teams isolate their scorers on one side or the other. The problem with isolating the middle of the floor, like the Mavs do, is that it means that a double team can come from anywhere. Nelson knows this, and he has the personnel to exploit this weakness in the Mavs set. He has doubles coming from all over the floor, forcing Nowtizki to make a decision: He can try to pass out of the double team, a tough prospect because the middle of the floor is a difficult place to pass out of effectively (and Dirk is not a terrific passer). Another option is to use his dribble to commit to one side, which is exactly what the Warriors want Nowitzki to do. Once they get Nowitzki to put the ball on the floor, they have him at his most vulnerable. Turnovers and bad shots ensue. These tactics are effective, they take Dirk off his game, and THAT is when the mind games start, that is when the confidence begins to eek away. It is not emotion that is dictating this series, it is strategy.

And regarding whether Nowitzki actually ‘elevated his game’ in the fourth tonight, undoubtedly Dirk played his best fourth quarter tonight, but very little of what he did was different from other games. Those two big threes he hit in the last few minutes? They looked eerily similar to the two he hit at the end of game 4. The difference? These came a few minutes earlier, where as Dirk’s hot shooting in game four was too little too late. So, when you read that Dirk has found his fire, regained the competitive spirit, or whatever hyperbolic statement ESPN.com throws at you, think really hard before you buy into the hype.

The Kidd is Back- Did he ever Leave?

2007-04-30T09:39:00.000-05:00

In 36 minutes of play Jason Kidd is averaging a triple double during the playoffs, 13 points, 11 rebounds, and a fucking unheard of 13 assists (though Nash is netting 15...). Will he maintain this clip beyond the first round (where I am now convinced the Nets are heading)? Probably not, but these incredible numbers underscore a basic truth of the power and ability of often forgotten Jason Kidd. As I’ve mentioned before, a shooting coach who worked with the Nets during their back to back runs to the finals claimed that Kidd is the best transition point guard this side of Magic Johnson, and I’m not inclined to disagree.

He is not the fastest guard in the league, especially now, at age 34 with two bad knees, but rarely does he make a bad pass when running the break. In the half court, his size allows him to post up smaller guards, and he can speed up in bursts, allowing him to penetrate with ease. Nay-sayers will point out that Kidd never developed a reliable jumper, and that his offensive game can never be complete without it. That is nonsense. True, if Jason Kidd had a jumper we’d be looking at the most complete offensive point guard of the past 15 or so years (going back to the era of Thomas and Johnson), but show me proof that he has struggled without it. Kidd is so good at getting the ball where it needs to go that he can have other people make it rain for him. And, by the way, Kidd shot 34% from three this season, not a terrible number considering his other talents.

Speaking of other talents, what about his defense. I have no scruples about naming Kidd among the most effective defensive point guards in the league. He was never a speedster on D like Gary Patyon (his mentor FYI), but he makes up for it in craftiness and size. At 6-4 and 210, his body and wingspan frustrate opposing guards (2.25 steals a game this series, 2 for his career). And he is immune to larger guards who like to post up (looking at you Baron Davis), pushing back as hard as he gets pushed.

Why the sudden Kidd love? I feel I owe him for doubting him all these years. Back when the Nets were putting the rest of the East to shame, I was never one of the voices calling for his MVP nomination. I always accepted him as the best, but was never a fan. Not sure what the reason was, and it doesn’t matter now. Probably because I was never a Kidd fan, somewhere between 2003 and today I forgot what this man was capable of. No longer. If they can finish off the Raptors, I will pick the Nets to be playing for the Eastern Conference Championship in a few weeks. Besides… I’d rather jump on the bandwagon now rather than in round 2.

A Tribute to #20

2007-04-29T14:31:00.000-05:00

Take your mind back for a moment. It is the summer of 1996, eleven years ago this June, and the best team in Basketball history, the '95-'96 Chicago Bulls are playing in the NBA championship. The Bulls were my Knicks eternal rivals, and naturally, I was rooting for whoever stood in their way… in this instance, the Seattle Supersonics. After he molested the Knicks in the second round, I was also pulling for whoever got the assignment of guarding Michael Jordan, that man was Gary Payton, who would go on to become my favorite player. Though the Bulls would win the first three, and then go on to win game 6 and the championship, Payton’s trademark defense was at its best, he held Jordan to 27 ppg, three below his average. I sat in awe throughout that series. Look at that swagger, that confidence! Look at how hard he works defending the ball (one of the best on-ball defenders of all time). How about that speed, the recklessness with which he penetrates, finishing ably with both right and left hands. And what about the passing, his terrific ability to stop, mid penetration, and make a quick pass to Shawn Kemp on a basket cut or to Detleff for a three. And of course, as my mom said, “he has that weird looking neck.”

Gary Payton was not the best point guard of all time, but he was among them. He captured my imagination as a kid and never let go. I’m eleven years older now, so is he. I have Gary Payton memorabilia coming out of my ass, 13 jerseys, around 100 cards, posters, and one (really cool) action figure. Payton has not had an all star season since around 2002, but I followed him nonetheless, routing for him on the Bucks, the Lakers, the Celtics, and (no!) the Heat. Now, the Heat are out of the playoffs (called it!), and Patyon’s storied career might be over. In that vein, I want to spend some time remembering him and how great of a player he was.

He was not the most memorable player of his generation. John Stockton was a better and more successful point guard, and like every other great player of the mid 90’s he perpetually lived in Michael’s shadow. Still, he is now universally recognized as one of the greatest players of the 90’s, and one of the NBA’s most underrated personalities. Gary was annoying. He didn’t just defend with his size and quickness, he defended with his mouth. There was no better trash talker in the league, no one was more capable of getting inside an opponent’s head than Payton, with his half smile and slightly off-putting northern Californian accent. His jaw was always moving, I’m convinced that he was talking even when we thought he was just chewing gum. Annoying? Sure. Effective? Most definitely.

Payton is a free agent and the rumor is that, having won his championship already, he is not coming back to pro basketball. Not that I blame him. It has been painful to watch his decline. The worst of it was in 2003-2004, when he was with the Lakers and his numbers and happiness dipped. I knew then I would not see the 1996 Payton ever again. His speed went first, no longer could he stay with the fastest player on the opposing team, instead being regulated to guarding the opponent’s shooting guard. His relentless drives to the hole were a thing of the past, Payton struggled to develop a jumper, to no avail. Unable to adapt his game to his age, Patyon’s minutes and usefulness decreased. What never changed was his fire, his desire to win, and his will to work as hard as he needed to get there.

I can’t say much is going to change without Payton. I’m going to miss his presence, but he hasn’t been the same for four years. I’ve found new players to idolize, Richard Hamilton, Shane Battier, and Tim Duncan come to mind, but no one player so captivated me and inflicted my love of basketball as the glove.

Because people seem to forget how good he was. Below are the numbers from Payton’s best season, 99-00, numbers that could have won him MVP and show exactly how spectacular this player used to be:

24.2 ppg; 49% fg; 8.9 apg; 6.4 rpg; 1.9 spg

Thanks for the memories Gary

'Hang Tough-' from New Kids on the Block to the Orlando Magic

2007-04-28T14:53:00.000-05:00

As I sit here watching the second quarter of game 4 between the Magic and the Pistons, I keep hearing the New Kids' classic 'hang tough' in the back of my head. The Magic are playing the way they should be, doing a number of things that I've been waiting to see from this lineup:
-Darko is doing an admirable job catching in the high post and making the quick pass out.
-J.J Redick, while still waiting for his first bucket, is doing a good job making the right decision coming off screens. Rather than forcing up shots, he is waiting for the Pistons defenders to commit to him before passing and forcing the defense to adjust. He is doing what a good shooter should do-- keeping the defense honest.
-Trevor Ariza (my former favorite Knick) is defending the way everyone knows he can. He is using his unique combination of power, speed, and wingspan to keep Billups out of the lane. Seriously, look at this guy when his arms are spread, it looks so bizarre to see those huge things protruding from his body.

Remember how I wondered aloud whether the Pistons had the focus to maintain their play for a full series? I think we are seeing a fairly unmotivated Pistons team. They might lose this game... its time for Flip Saunders to rally his team, if he can.

EDIT: It's now three minutes later, Detroit is on a 9-0 run, and as Steve Kerr just pointed out, they just "flipped the switch." Of course, Carlos Delfino's energy doesn't hurt either.

Can we talk about how little effort Darko brings to the defensive end? Delfino just ran right by him and scored off a pass. I guess you could say it was a back door cut, but I don't think it even counts as a back door cut because Darko was never caught looking in the wrong direction, he just stood to watch Delfino as he cut to the hoop.

EDIT: Looks like that's a wrap for Detroit/Orlando. Glad to see that the Magic made a game out of it though. I expect big things from Orlando next year. For now though I wonder whether my reservations about Detroit are appropriate. Either we are dealing with a team that sometimes cares and sometimes doesn’t bring it, or Detroit has reached a level seen by Shaq’s Lakers and the Spurs, a level where a team can just ‘flip the switch,’ as we’ve already talked about. This is the level of professionalism that the Heat thought they had reached this season, only to find that their switch suddenly wasn’t working. Whether Detroit can continue its on and off energy level will be seen next round in their series with Chicago.

60 Point Halves, Parity, and More

2007-04-27T22:49:00.000-05:00

Didn't get to watch the Bulls or the Nets roll tonite (my housemates outvoted me in favor of watching Redsox/Yankees), and its a shame. I am now officially in awe of Jason Kidd, despite multiple knee surgeries and despite me losing faith in his durability, he is showing that he deserves to be mentioned as one of the best clutch players of all time (in addition to being among the top 10 point guards of all time and the top 2 transition point guards of all time). The Nets are playing out of their minds right now, and if they can close out the Raptors, I think they stand a good chance of 'upsetting' the overrated (and overseeded) Cavs.

I now regret claiming that the Heat would take the Bulls to seven games, its as if I bought into the Heat hype as much as everyone else. Still, I reiterate, this Heat team is just not very good.

Meanwhile, we are about to enter the fourth quarter of a Golden State route. A few observations:
-Rarely have I seen a good, right handed, seven footer look as lost in low post as Dirk does right now. He's not doing too badly (7/15 shooting right now), but Stephen Jackson and the rest of the Warriors have done a terrific job keeping out of the middle of the floor where he is most deadly, forcing him to either low post where it is more difficult to get off a shot. I wonder why more teams haven't utilized such a tactic over the course of the season.

-After every made basket in the first half (where they scored 60) the Warriors, if undetered by full court pressure, throw a long pass to around midcourt. They break on plays were they don't even have numbers. For every moment of every game, all five players on the court are thinking three things: 'run, run, and run some more.'

-The Warriors are not a good defensive team personell wise, but they are a smart team defensivly, defending Nowitzki effectivly and taking the Mavs out of their desired offensive schemes.

-I, like the good folks at ESPN, am starting to think upset, and what that would mean for this Mavs team. I'm pretty sure the only thing more dissapointing than losing a 2-0 finals lead is to be the best team in the regular season, only to have it all unravel in the first round. Furthermore, think about what would happen if both the Heat and Mavs lose in the first round. I can't remember the last time both confrences were without their champions in round two (the last champion to keep its team intact and lose in round one were the 99-00 Spurs who were without Tim Duncan). This speaks volumes about the level of parity attained by the NBA in the past decade. Between 1989 and 2002, only five teams won titles, with the Bulls taking six, the Lakers taking three, the Pistons and Rockets taking two each, and the Spurs taking one. Yet, in the years from 2003 to today, we have already seen three teams win titles, with only the Spurs taking more than one. I think that this is great. If the Mavs get eliminated, that leaves, I think, five teams with realistic shots at winning the title (Spurs, Pistons, Bulls, Suns, Rockets). I love it, I love that you can't pick a champion for sure, you really get the sense that anyone can win.

-Finally, Jason Richardson does more than jump high, his shot is deadly, keeping defenses honest. And with his athleticism and explosivness, he is capable of getting to the rim on drives. Baron Davis is the best player on this Warriors team, but Richardson has gone from being a mindless scorers to a perfect fit for a well oiled Warriors machine.

I Live for Spurs/Nuggets

2007-04-25T18:21:00.000-05:00

SA 19, DEN 12- Three minutes left in the First quarter and the Spurs are defending out of their minds. They are demonstrating their masterful ability to control the tempo off every Denver turnover. Parker is looking to push but is also quick to bring the ball out and reset. Furthermore, the Spurs, aparently readers of this blog, have been utilizing Duncan more on the high post, using his explosivness and passing abilities to take Nene off his defensive game. The Nuggets are getting nothing easy and things look good right now for San Antonio.

If nothing else this game showed that Denver needs to be included in discussions of the West's elite teams. The Nugget's interior defense was fantastic in initiating a fourth quarter comeback. Still, the Spurs did what the Spurs do best, controling the tempo for most of the night and utilizing Duncan and Parker's offensive versitility to keep the Nuggets defense guessing. Frankly, other than during Denver's end of the game run, the Spurs looked masterful.

Now we are witnessing Golden State's relentless offensive game. Dallas is within four as of the end of the first, but GS has completly controlled the tempo. Dallas doesn't have to start worrying yet, but looking ahead, I'm not sure Dallas can win four at this speed.

The 3rd quarter is over and clearly I was wrong. Dallas not only produced a 30 point quarter of its own, it did it while holding Golden State to 22. Dallas made it to the finals last year with its versatility, and its showing it again tonight.

First Round Dominance

2007-04-25T12:50:00.000-05:00

Did you catch a look at Kobe Bryant's face at all last night? Did you see the frustration in his eyes every time he turned the ball over or missed one of his forced up fade aways? Didn't he resemble that guy in pickup games who knows he can do better but consistantly gets flustered into making a mistake? Kobe's face was one that I, and all amature ballers like me know all too well, it was the face of a guy who is overmatched, a guy unable to do what he knows he needs to do in order to win. Forget their offense last night (well, forget it for a minute), the Phoenix Suns, as a team, played some of the best defense I've seen from them, and they used it to control the game, almost from begining to end. Early in the broadcast, Craig Sager reported that Dantoni was going to use a different set of schemes on Bryant. The ever impressive Raja Bell remained Kobe's primary defender, but his perimeter and weak side help defenders played off their men enough for a consistant barrage of double teams. No matter where he recieved the ball, whether he brought it up the court or whether the Lakers ran him off screens, Kobe was hounded by two or more Suns' defenders. I give the Suns a raw deal sometimes, partially because I don't believe they are as good a playoff team as the Spurs and Mavs are. Still, when they play well, the Suns are among the NBA's elite, and they showed that last night. I'm not sure the Lakers can take a game off them the way they're playing, and sweaping the Lakers would leave them fresh for San-Antonio (assuming that they make it past Denver).

Many people expceted Phoenix to dominate in the first round, few expected that result from Chicago. Because they are matched up with the defending champs, pundits (including myself) and experts everywhere imagined that this 4/5 matchup (which is really a 3/5 matchup) would be a dogfight. The fact is, we were all fooled by the myth that superstars can turn bad teams into good teams overnight. Miami never played up to the level they demonstrated during the '05-'06 season. A large part of that was due to injuries, but part of it stems from the fact that Miami's pieces are getting old, and its young guns' growth (Kopono, Haslem, and Posey) have been marginalized by a system that revolves around two players. Miami is not in Chicago's league, that was evident in game 1, where Chicago pulled out a victory despite playing their worst game in months, and it became painfully clear by the buzzer of game 2. When Chicago buckled down, they prevented the Heat from getting the looks they wanted, and then ran the ball down their throats. Chicago is an elite team in the East, part of a tier that I think includes only them and Detroit. Miami is a playoff team, but the stars are no longer aligned for them, a championship is too much to hope for, especially when they had the luck of being matched up with the beast of the east in round 1. I'm not going to predict a sweap now, though I wouldn't be surprised, I will say,however, that these two games have demonstrated how overrated Miami really is.

Finally, I wish the NBA would throw me a bone and let me watch some of the Toronto/NJN series, because that looks like its the best (only?) series in the east right now.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I must prepare myself for a night of terrific bball.

National Pride?

2007-04-24T15:00:00.000-05:00

This week, Fabricio Oberto, Walter Herrmann, and Manu Ginobili announced that they will not play for the Argintine national team this summer, though they did say that they would play in 2008's Olympics. I find this story just a bit unsettling. Over the past four plus years many NBA player's are scolded for forgoing international compition during the summer. Now, Argentina, who fields perhaps the world's finest team, is faling victim to the same phenominon. This, however, seems to only be an American thing. I doubt many pros from the European leagues fail to join their national team. Yet the NBA's players, for whatever reason, seem to be starting a trend of opting against major compitition in the summer, resulting perhaps from the NBA's corporate culture.

In the NBA, rewards are high, but are risks. If you are making millions of dollars playing basketball, you also stand to lose millions of dollars if you get hurt and are unable to continue your career. In Europe there are so many teams and so many different professional levels, it is easier to lose your first step but keep your professional career alive. In Europe, a player on a terrific sqad could get hurt and have their abilities deminished, but there are more teams there, and thus a larger market for talent. In America the NBA is enroute to monopolizing minor leagues with its D-League, taking buisness away from 'minor' leagues such as USBL and ABA (2000). This contributes to the fact that 'minor' league European teams are less far away form 'minor' league American teams, where, other than the NBDL, the drop off in play, pay, and prestige is high. Therefore, NBA players are more likely to be conservative in the off season, because the cost of failure is high. This, I think, is why players in America are begining to skip the smaller international matches.

This is an American phonomion, borne out of the incredible amounts of corporate control that exist over all American professional basketball. Because of this, I expect to see other Eurupean players playing here to start taking their summers off.

Why the Mavs should worry less and why the Spurs should worry more

2007-04-23T11:40:00.000-05:00

I'm a Spurs fan... there, I said it. I'm upset that they lost last night, depite the well recited factoid that they have lost their first playoff game for the past couple of years. Still, much of what I saw last night gives me, and Spurs fans all over, reason to panic.

First of all, Denver was able to get 95 points on the Spurs defense, but not only did they outscore the supposed masters of tempo control, they outdefended them as well. For much of the night, Duncan, and everyone else in black and white seemed unable to get off solid shots. On the other end, the Spurs could not put a stop to Iverson and Anthony's abilities to take it inside. This is both surprising and upsetting, seeing as how much of the Spurs defense is predicated on Bowen's toughness and Ginobli's speed, which are supposed to keep dribble penetration to a minimum. Denver seemed capable of pushing the tempo at times and slowing it down when they needed it, San Antonio rarely looked like they were in control, and without their ability to force teams to play their style, I don't think the spurs have much going for them.

Scarier than both of those were the way that Nene was able to bully Tim Duncan. I have long believed that Nene is an underated defender, but I had no idea just how good he was. With Camby intimidating would be dribblers, the Spurs best bet was to get the ball to Duncan and let him go to work. Duncan shot 7/17 and at times looked frustrated against Nene's defense. At other times, the Spurs used Duncan as a point forward, giving him the ball high and allowing him to make plays. This was when the team looked their best, and Duncan is certianly capable enough (7 assists last night), but Duncan is not Chris Webber, it is good to post him up high sometimes to distribute, but in general, he belongs on the block with his back to the basket. What I'm hoping is that Duncan finds a way to use his faceup game more. He has the skill to get by Nene off the dribble, but with Camby's presence on help, taking Nene off the dribble might be risky. In general, the Spurs showed that the Nuggets are more than capable of giving them fits. Pop and his soldiers are in need of adjustment. Perhaps we need to see the ball in Ginobili's hands more, allowing him to push the tempo before Camby and Nene are able to get set. The spurs are a better than averege running sqad, with Parker and Ginobili, alongside Brent Barry and Finley who can spread the defense. Eitherway, something needs to be done or the Spurs will be fishing with alot of questions to answer.

The Mavs' loss is the one more people are talking about, yet it was the upset that has been predicted over and over the past few weeks. I did expect Dallas to lose one or two to GS, but not this soon and not this bad. Still, I think the Mavs have more positives to take out of this game than does San-Antonio. As Hollinger and others have pointed out (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2007/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2846252), Avery Johnson might have over-adjusted his lineup to match up with Golden State. Dirk just doesn't look comfortable when he plays the 5. I, like Hollinger, think that Dallas should focus more on playing its game. They are a much better team, they need to force Golden State to match up with them.

All told, last night was a very exciting first Sunday night of playoff basketball, but no one has been eliminated yet. While both Texas giants should be sweating, it is much to early to start talking about historically unprecidented upsets.

Welcome to NBA Playoff Sunday

2007-04-22T11:20:00.000-05:00

-On the topic of the officiating debate: People are worried that we are witnessing a rift between league office, refs, and players. To this I ask, where have you been the last decade? The NBA has long been conflicted between the desire to placate an audience that wants to see players play, and the knowledge that if it doesn't stand by its refs, the league would suffer from instant credibility loss. David Stern and his refs have always had a strange dynamic for a number of reasons. First of all, as much as I hate the way the NBA fines anyone who says anything about its beloved officiating, I do understand the compulsion behind it. Could you imagine of Stern and his gang DIDN'T stand by his refs? That would give players, fans, and coaches everywhere license to question every call. This would result in a huge credibility gap because of all the criticism that would be going around the league. To fix this, Stern has done much more than just fine everyone with a negative talking point, he has, I believe, sent the message to major sports outlets to depict the refs in a new light. Think back on all the nationally televised games this past season. It seems to me that more time has been spent talking about the refs, reminding viewers that they have histories, families, and a contribution to the game. Even before the Crawford incident, I have distinct memories of Mike Breen (et al) not just running down the list of refs but telling us a bit about each one. I don't think this has happened in any other year. Is it too much of a stretch to argue that NBA league officials have sent the message to media outlets to let fans know how important refs are? I think Stern is really scared of what would happen with hoards of unabashed critics, and thus he is using all of his tools to ensure that that doesn't happen. The second strange thing about the NBA and its refs is the way that Stern uses the in-game tendencies of the refs to try and change the image of the game. Before the season began, Stern gave his refs license to T up anything that walks. What Stern is doing is try to cut down on notion that his players are whiney primadonnas, and to do this, he is attempting to manipulate the way the games are called.

-How awesome would it be to see the Wiz pull off a first round upset? I’ve never seen so many people (with good reason) counting a team out in the first round. This would be huge… Huge I say!

Magic/Pistons

2007-04-21T17:57:00.000-05:00

-Looks like Proffessor Hubie Brown will be calling the game. I love this man, best color commentator I've seen. People complain that he talks too much, taking away from the sub-par Mike Tirico, but I would rather have a discertation on defending the pick and roll than having to listen to Tirico's bad jokes and incorrect observations.

-I think the way the first quarter goes will say a lot about how the series is going to go. Which Pistons are we going to see? When they are focused and intense, Detroit can beat anyone with their brtual efficiancy. However, I haven't seen that team in almost two months. Detroit is picked as the heaviest favorite in this first round, are they just going to stay rolling on cruise control? If so, look for Orlando to put some pressure on them early. EDIT: As of midway through the second, with Detroit up 12, I think we can safely say that the killer instinct is back. Detroit is playing like a group of professionals, setting the right screens, making the right passes, and taking the right shots. This game is not as close as the score belies.

-Dwight Howard in the First quarter: Orlando is attacking inside early. Not surprising because of how poor their offence is everywhere else. The Pistons doubled on Howard this first time out which is surprising because they didn't do much of that in the regular season. I know the Stones started Rasheed on Howard, but Webber seems to be getting caught on him. Dwight will dominate that matchup, and even Sheed will have his work cut out for him. Like I said last week, Howard is going to make a name for himself over the next 4/5 games. Look at how hard he is playing, if I may quote Hubie, "He is a monster on the offensive glass."

-I like how the Magic put Hill on Billups, Nelson is too small for him. Still, I don't see Rip missing many shots with Nelson's short wingspan. Nelson is getting caught up in those staggard screens for Hamelton, why is he trailing? If I were the Magic I'd tell Jameer to cheat a bit under some of those and cut him off, otherwise Hamelton is going to get 30 or more.

-D WINS GAMES: Kudos to Detroit's transition D, Orlando is trying to run and getting nothing out of it. On the flip side, Orlando's defense is horrific. Detroit has 15 points in 3 minutes and looks like they aren't even trying. Tony Battie is geting pulvarized by the aging Rasheed Wallace. He's getting points off the pick and pop, and to some degree Orlando is going to live with those. What can't happen is Battie allowing himself to get burned on simple step back moves in the post. Wallace hasn't been a great low post scorer in three years, they shouldn't have to double him. Finally, the Magic go to a zone, forcing the ball out of hte middle and into the hands of Prince and Hamilton who have trouble creating their own shot against swarming Defenses.

-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4UCq_Wf6wk Great time-out material!

Watching Bulls/Heat

2007-04-21T15:46:00.000-05:00

-Thabo Sefolosha is doing such a good job on Wade. That length is giving Dwayne trouble, but I'm legitiamtly surprised to see his speed keeping up with #3... as I type, Sefolosha forces Wayne right into Nocioni- charging foul. Wade isn't exaclty having his way with Hienrich, but he's having a much easier time getting shots off. I think the 6-7 Sefolosha is just too lanky and long for the 6-4 Wade.

-Shaq got off to such a good start, I jumped on the 'Ben Wallace has lost it' bandwagon halfway into the second. Seriously though, Ben Wallace has some gift to defend Shaq the way he does. How do you push an object that big off the low block? I'm sure that someone, somwhere has written this, but forcing Shaq to a right hand hookshot is the only way to stop from scoring on the left side, even at his age he has suck a quick spin going baseline, one of the best in the L right now.

-Tyrus Thomas jumps high. Seriously, he's comming over so quickly with such good timing that he's effecting every shot taken in the lane. Payton just lost a pass out of bounds, try to make that pass with Thomas' wingspan blocking your vision like that. If I were the heat, I'd throw it to Morning and take it to Thomas that way. Let's see how the Heat adjust in the fourth quarter, they are getting no offence from anyone besides Antoine Walker's shooting. I'm starting to think that thats the best way to beat the champs, make Toine jack it from outside.

-Teams shooting a combined 8-31 from 3... ugly, ugly fourth quarter so far.

-I can't say im surprised at this outcome (a closly fought Bulls win), but I don't understand why people view this as an upset. Every season is new, and if you look at both these teams and how they played this past season, you would see that the Bulls are just a suprior squad. People say that their lack of inside scoring will hurt them, but I've waited all season and haven't seen it.

Texas Domination

2007-04-21T12:59:00.000-05:00

Western Confrence Preview- streamlined version

1. Dallas vs. 8. Golden State: Dallas in 5. Believe the hype, GS is good, but not good enough.
2. Phoenix vs. 7. LA Lakers: Phoenix in 5. Lakers are stone cold, we will not see a repeat of last year.
3. San-Antonio vs. 6. Denver: San-Antonio in 6. Spurs don't lose in the first round, espeically not against a running team.
4. Houston vs. 5. Utah: Houston in 7. This will be a great series for defense lovers.

Second round:
1. Dallas vs. 4. Houston: Dallas in 7. This series will be more competitive than people think.
2. Phoenix vs. 3. San-Antonio: San-Antonio in 5. No one will be surprised when San-Antonio wins, they'll be surprised when the see how quickly

Finals:

1. Dallas vs. 3. San-Antonio: San-Antonio in 7. I can't vote against the Spurs, but this could go either way.

Eastern Confrence Playoff Predictions

2007-04-18T21:34:00.000-05:00

First round:

1. Detroit vs. 8. Orlando
Pistons in 5
Orlando wins my award for most disappointing team in the NBA. Now they find themselves in a no win situation against the Pistons. Detroit won the season series 4-0, and I see very little reason for them not to sweep. The only thing that might hurt the Pistons is their tendency to play down to the competition. Hopefully this will subside come playoff time, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they come out flat and allow the Magic to steal a game. Look for Howard to have a big series no matter the outcome; he averaged 21 and 14 against Detroit during the regular season

2. Cleveland vs. 7. Washington
Cleveland in 4
This was the rematch everyone wanted, but unfortunately for fans world wide, the Wizards just don’t have the weapons to get it done. This was the only match up that I didn’t look at the numbers for. That said, I expect some of the games to be close. Washington has been playing some good ball since Arenas went down, losing five of their games in April by less than 10 points. Antonio Daniels and Deshawn Stevenson have been playing good ball and will do their best to keep it close. In the end, Washington just doesn’t have the weapons to get the job done.

3. Toronto vs. 6. New Jersey
Toronto in 6
Home court means everything in this match up. During the regular season, the home team won every game, with Carter being fairly terrible in both games in Toronto. He shot a combined 9-32 in the two games in Toronto, though he was good for ten assists in the second one. New Jersey has been playing some very good ball lately, but I think Toronto makes for some match up problems. While Chris Bosh has struggled a bit against the Nets’ front line (17 and 7), I don’t think Jason Kidd has the speed to keep up with Ford in a 7 game series. Toronto has the ability to push the tempo, and while New Jersey is a good running team in general, Carter’s game is better suited for the half court.
EDIT: I'm very surprised that most of the online sports world disagrees with me here.

4. Miami vs. 5. Chicago (Chicago has home court)
Chicago in 7
The biggest loser tonight, other than Chicago (who dropped from 2 to 5), was Miami. I think Miami matches up much better against Cleveland, they would have won that series. Chicago has the best low post defense in the East, and they will do a very good job on Shaq. The only game the Bulls lost this season was an utter blow out (103-70) in which they had 20 turnovers and shot 35%. This will not happen night in and night out. Wade is Wade, and will be good for a few wins, but I still think Chicago is the hottest team in the East and will be too tough for this very good Miami team.
EDIT: I am not surprised that the majority of the online sports world disagrees with me here.

Second Round:
1. Detroit vs. 5. Chicago: Detroit in 7
(I should say that I still believe that this series could go either way. I give it to Detroit simply because Chicago will be comming off a much more difficult series and Detroit is better equiped to go a full 7 games.)

2. Cleveland vs. 3. Toronto: Cleveland in 6

Finals: 1. Detroit vs. 2. Cleveland: Detroit in 7

These are my predictions as I see them. When the first round ends, I'll revaluate these and provide full analysis for the second round.

Yesterday

2007-04-17T10:59:00.000-05:00

I want to send condolences out to all of the families and the students involved in yesterday's shooting at VT. Over the next few days pundits everywhere are going to spin this story for agendas, be it gun control, video games, the role of football in a school community (heard it on ESPN's Cold Pizza this morning). The bottom line is that this was one of the worst events in US history, and there is nothing that anyone can say about it that will change that. I'm not going to comment because it's not my place, and like Columbine eight years ago, this story is too much of a tragedy for any words to mean much.

Why I'm Psyched for the Western Confrence Playoffs

2007-04-15T14:26:00.000-05:00

The East is very top heavy in that the top five teams (Pistons, Bulls, Cavs, Raptors, and Heat) are far beyond the bottom three, as a result, I don't think we are going to see such a great first round out East. That's why my preview of the Eastern Confrence Playoffs (below) focuses on the second round. In the West, however, there are some good matchups out there from the get go. Unfortunately for them, Denver just sealed up the sixth seed, earning them a date with the Spurs (most likely). I truly think that Denver could have, and might have, upset the Suns. But against the Spurs, who are the NBA's best at shutting down running teams, I'm not sure they can win a game.

I'm praying that Golden State catches the Clippers and the lakers fall out. I think a Clippers/Suns series would be good, but I'm really looking forward to a match between Dallas and Golden State. Don Nelson has always done a good job coaching against his former teams, and I think GS's high paced offence can give Dallas fits. I don't expect an upset, but I wouldn't be surprised if it takes Dallas six games to get it.

If the Lakers do play the Suns, we've got a rematch of what ended up being a good series last year. However, I don't see the Lakers playing the calibre of ball they were at this time last season. Raja Bell does a better job on Kobe than 90% of the league. That said, if the Lakers can get it together, their big front line has what it takes to give the Suns trouble at times. We've already seen that this matchup can be a good one, but it depends on how well Phil Jackson can rally the troops.

Finally, we have Houston/Utah, which I think is going to be a grind it out battle between the two of the most overlooked teams in the NBA. When it comes down to it, I think Houston is going to be too much defense for the already suspect Jazz offense, but if the Jazz take the series, no one will be surprised, least of all me.

For the second round, all eyes are going to be on San Antonio and Phoenix, but I'm not sure Phoenix is capable of taking three games off the Spurs, who are should be called the Maestros because they are so good at controling tempo. Much more fun to me will be the Houston/Dallas match, featuring two of the best hard nosed, defensive minded coaches in the NBA. Van Gundy and Johnson imbue their teams with a toughness that alot of teams lack. I expect this series to be hard fouht. I'm not sure Houston has what it takes to get it to six or seven, but they might. And whatever games there are will be highly entertaining contests.

Finally, we're going to have Dallas/San Antonio in the matchup that everybody wants to see. Last year's series was one of the best playoff matchups I've ever seen, I can't imagine that this year can be better, but basketball fans around the world are praying.

All in all, I think we are in store for a great couple of months of playoff basketball. Once the seedings are solidified I'll post my formal predictions.

Why I'm psyched for the eastern confrence playoffs

2007-04-10T21:07:00.000-05:00

We're not talking about the Knicks game tonite beyond saying this, in the last two games I've seen them play, against the Nets and then tonite, Chicago is playing like a team on a mission. I cannot say the same thing, right now, about the Pistons.

The way things are in the East today, the Pistons would play Miami in round two, with Miami at the four seed and Chicago at the two seed. Meanwhile, on the other side of the bracket would be Chicago and Toronto. If these are indeed the two second round series, I think NBA fans are in for a treat. Right now, I would have to say that Chicago is playing the best ball in the conference. That said, however, I think the conference is the Pistons' to lose. Still, would anyone be surprised if Miami made it right back to the finals? I doubt it. But what about Toronto? I picked this team to win the Atlantic in the pre-season, but I had no clue that Chris Bosh and his European teammates would come along so quickly. So fans would be flipping between a rematch of last year's semi-finals, in which the Heat would face their biggest test of the season (was the Shaq-inspired run a fluke? Is Wade going to rejoin the team in good enough shape to run with the stones?), and seeing big man Bosh taking on the best low post defense in the league.

In other words, ladies and gentlemen, we are positioned right now for the best East second round since 2001 (remember that Bucks/Hornets series? That was a great seven game match, surpassed only by Iverson and Carter's personal game of 'can you top this' in that 76ers/Raptors match).

As good as last year's tourney was, I'm starting to get really excited for the next couple of months.

By the way, if I had to pick, it would be Detroit and Chicago battling in a series that might be the best of them all...

Knicks...

2007-04-09T20:58:00.000-05:00

Playoff hopes are dwindling, but I would expect no less from a team that gave Kelvin Cato big 4th quarter minutes tonite. Some observations:

-Well, after jumping on the Mardy bandwagon yesterday, I had to grimace along with Mike Breen when Collins over dribbled, making a pass to Curry too late and comitting the turnover that started Detroit's fatal run.

-I gotta say I like the wierd zone the Knicks threw at the Pistons during the second quarter. Not sure how to describe it. Clyde called it a 2-1-2, which I guess it was, but really it was a 2-3 that kinda morphed into a 3-2 as the middle guy down low would slide up. While a 2-3 zone puts you in good position to double down in the low post, this defense was designed, I assume, to double Webber/Wallace on the high post, where they create havok with their terrific passing skills. I liked it, and I think it vexed the Pistons a bit.

-I love Pistons basketball. Aside from maybe San Antonio and Dallas, no team looks as professional as the Pistons, always seeming to be able to get off the shot they want when they want it. Tonite though it looked like they just arrived after hotboxing the team bus. True, they are looking forward to the playoffs, but until the end there, this was a wholly different team. I will say though that the Knicks defense (*cough* Mardy Collins *cough*) helped.

-Nate Robinson showed once again how dangerous a scorer he is capable of being. Still, I counted along with Breen (best play-by-play guy in the game FYI) around 5-7 instances where he just threw up a bad shot (though I'll admit one or two went in), often leading to a Pistons' break. While I think I was a little hard on him in my post the other day, little man's got some growing up to do.

-Steve Francis just blows my mind. Does he care? Doesn't he? I know he is hurt, and I know this is a bad situation for him. But it seems to me that he is in a position to make some moves over the last six games and maybe improve his trade value, if not convince Isiah to keep him on board. He showed some signs tonite, maybe one or two. But then you get plays like the one that got him ejected. The 14 year olds I coached knew better than to dribble, BACKWARDS mind you, into a corner. I don't even think we'd see that from li'l Nate.

On another note, two great articles from two of my favorite writers in the buisness. Much worth checking out:

Selena Roberts of the NYTimes writes an article that no one intrested in youth sports can afford not to read (http://select.nytimes.com/2007/04/08/sports/08roberts.html). The line between cheating and 'intelligent ballplaying' is thin and morally dubious. Is it cheating to foul a guy in such a way that the refs wont see it? That's been a large part of playing defense for years. Yet it is a case of going outside of the rules. One practice this past year our best post defender asked me to show him "some dirty tricks the refs won't catch." My first instinct was to show him how to tug a jersey as the guy turns, or how to crouch in a way that lets you stick your knee into the offensive player, both tactics that I use in pickup, but it just felt wrong. Definitly an issue worth discussing (so comment!)

Jack McCallum, basketball guru for SI writes a piece about the coaching match between the Mavs' and Suns' staffs leading up to one of their regular season games (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jack_mccallum/04/03/mavs.suns0409/index.html). Very intesresting for any fan. What I took out of the article was that NBA players are so good, when you create a defensive scheme, its really a case of picking your poison. A good example is Devin Harris, a player whom the Suns' staff want to shoot jumpers, is not such a bad shooter, but his penetration skills are so good, the Suns go under screens for him, practically begging him to step back for a jump shot. Coaching in the league must be really difficult.

Whose Your MVP?

2007-04-09T14:00:00.000-05:00

I realize this might open up a can of worms, but I can't remember an MVP race where so many people are so unsure of who to pick. Someone has to win it, just like somone has to win the Eastern Confrence, but the makeup of candidates this year is hardly as clear cut as in years past. This is not the year 2000, where Shaq's dominance overrode everyone else's season. Nor do we have a situation like 1997 or 1998 where it was clear that Karl Malone and Michael Jordan were playing basketball at a level unlike anyone else in the universe. Nor does this year resemble last year's MVP race where there was a legitimate debate between those arguing for the scoring kings (Lebron and Kobe [and Gilbert?]) and those arguing for the more complete (offensive) statistics (Steve Nash) (though as we will see, I believe that Dirk was the true MVP last year). In those years there was an MVP tier, sometimes occupied by a single player, sometimes by two, and sometimes by many players for many different reasons. This year? I don't see anyone playing at a level so high that he just blows everyone else out of the water.

Most people are saying that the race is between Nash and Nowitzki, and this is likely the case. Those are the two best players on the two best teams and they are both having great seasons.

Dirk makes for an interseting case. I believed then, and still believe, that Dirk was last year's MVP, but because his scoring paled in comparison to Kobe's, and because he didn't have history on his side like Nash, he mostly got left out of consideration. This year, his scoring is down two points, but otherwise his stats are the same. If his stats weren't impressive enough last year (and I think they should have been), then you cannot argue that they are good enough this year. What Dirk has on his side is the best record in the NBA, the idea being that the best player on the best team has a certain right to the trophy. People make this argument every year, but how often is it the case? Every time the best player from the best team won MVP in recent history (Jordan in '96 and '98, Shaq in '00, Duncan in '03), they also hadthe benifit of truly being among the most dominant players in the league. Looking at the list of NBA MVP's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Valuable_Player_Award) I see no case in recent history when a player won it simply because of regular season success. Certianlly, team quality counts for something. The MVP doesn't, and shouldn't go to a player on a bad team (which is why #24 is absent in this discussion). But while team quality is always a factor, I don't think it is ever the factor in determining the NBA's MVP.

So what does Dirk have on his side? He is among the few players in the league (along with Shaq, Kobe, Duncan, and Garnet, and Arenas) who have displayed flashes of dominance that the MVPs of old possessed. Of the two main candidates, I think Dirk is the one who most fits the profile of dominance I outlined above. This, not the Mavs record, is what I believe the German has going for him. Dirk's offensive (and newly found defensive) abilities take over games much in the same fashion as Iverson did in 2001 or Garnett did in 2003. The difference between Dirk this year and those players in those years is that Dirk is not always the man on the court like they were, his team's offense doesn't always run through him. Still, 9 times out of 10, when he needs to, Dirk can provide moments of uber ball.

Nash's numbers are for the most part simliar to last year's, he's avereging one more assist, shooting slightly better from the field and slightly less well from the line. In general, though, the numbers are where they were the year before. Though I would argue that Nash is still getting better, the jump between last year and this year is not nearly as great as the jump between '05 and '06. Nash is having an MVP type season, yet for his supporters/detractors, the arguments have gone far beyond who is the best.
Scoop Jackson (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=jackson/070409) wants to aruge that Nash shouldn't win it for history's sake. I think that is garbage. The MVP is the MVP, let history sort itself out later. If the MVP truly means most valuble player, then Nash deserves the award as much as anyone. Numbers aside, no one is more important to the way his team functions as Nash. But I'm not sure 'valuable' is always the operative word in the voting process. As I've mentioned above, when I look back on recent MVPs, I picture figures who dominated the basketball realm. Much like the way Jordan did, or the great MVP centers of the past fifteen years (Hakeem, Robinson, Shaq). Duncan and Garnett were another pair whose numbers and game changing proformances were just so mind blowing, they practically took the award for themselves. I would argue that no matter what the pundits say, it is this sense of dominance that voters most look to when choosing the MVP. And the fact is, despite a handful of players who have moments of such dominance (like Dirk), I don't see a single player who has maintained that level of play for the entire season. If I am right, and the MVP is largly determined by a player's domination over the rest of the league, then I think we are witnessing a dearth of candidates.

Most of the league's best teams (including the Spurs, Mavs, Suns, Raptors, Pistons, Bulls, and Jazz) play truly unselfish ball. Some of those teams have a universally acknowledged "best player," (Duncan, Dirk, Nash, Bosh), but none of them have one guy who is 'the man' night in and night out. Why is this? I'm not sure and its certianly a question worth thinking about. But what this means is that when the media votes on its MVP this year, it will have to use a different paradigm than in years past.

So whose my MVP? Lets split the trophy in two and send half to Canada and half to Deutchland.

Too little too Nate

2007-04-08T14:20:00.000-05:00

Knicks won a game last night, but its too late for them, I'm already thinking of next year and the future of the franchise.

No, not Nate Robinson.

Robinson is good, but hes a novelty act. Hes a small guard who can get a good shot off at will, but they don't always go in. With his jumping ability, his step back moves create enough space to get off a shot anywhere on the floor. He is quick enough off the dribble to get to the hoop almost at will. While Robinson's ability to make a good shot out of nothing is a skill that few have, he is separated from the NBAs great scoring guards (Kobe, Lebron, Ray Allen, among others) by the fact that he lacks the size and strength to make those shots look routine. But thats not Robinson's problem.

Robinson's problem is that big ass head of his. He might be one of the worst decision makers among NBA guards. Over the course of the last few weeks, he has had the ball in his hands often during the final seconds of a big game, and why shouldn't he? His handle is good enough to play keep away for a good amount of the shot clock. Robinson, however, forces himself into turnovers and wasted possessions. He is the sort of player who hits two shots in a row and then jacks up a 25 footer because he can. He dribbles into two defenders, jumps, and then tries to pass, rather than using his ball handling ability to dribble in and then out. (Incidentally, Steve Nash does the opposite and it is my favorite thing about Steve Nash's game, if he penetrates and doesn't have a good angle to make a pass, rather than jumping to pass, he takes a dribble or two backwards to get the angle he needs) Robinson makes bad passes in transition as well, did anyone else see his pass to nobody on a break during the fourth quarter last night? It was bad.

Robinson reminds me of a smaller Nick Van Exel, a great scoring, quick pointguard with a wicked jumper, a temper, and an uncanny ability to make the wrong decision. Maybe ten years from now Robinson will pull a Van Exel, wise up to how to be a point guard and sign with a contender like Nick did with Dallas a few years back. Until then, however, he's a novelty act.

So whose the future of the Knicks? Mardy Collins

Between his thinning hair line and his strong fundimentals, its hard to believe that Collins is still a rookie. Though it makes sense considering he was coached by the great Coach Chaney at Temple U. He is strong like bull, pulling down rebounds. He is not as quick as Robinson, not as athletic, and his jump shot is two years away from being viable, but god damn can this young man run the point. Hopefully next year, Thomas will have the sense to keep him in late game situations, if only for his decisions making skills. This is a guy who gets the ball where it needs to go.

Also, he made Carmelo look like a punk.

Everything starts somewhere

2007-04-08T09:58:00.000-05:00

I wonder how you found this place. Everyone else seems to be popping up with blogs so I figured, why not?

A bit about myself and what you should expect to see here. I'm a (soon to be) fresh out of college type from the NYC area with dreams and aspirations and time to waste. I want to use this space to write about the little things and the things I love. I'm an aspiring basketball coach and history nerd, so expect alot of unrelated musings about basketball and intellectual type stuff, mixed in with whatever else crosses my mind on a given day. I love to write so I'll probebly be here alot.... starting in a few hours when I get back from lunch. Also, my grammer is impecible, my spelling isn't

So ya, enjoy, and feel free to contact me about any of the offense crap I might write (philkeis@brandeis.edu).

PS: A million points to anyone who figures out where the title comes from.