Utah D's up Huh?

-Yesterday’s Detroit/Chicago game was painful. Time and again, the Bulls’ post defense, held by me to among the league’s best, got burned by whoever got them down low. In 15 minutes of play, Jason Maxiell had 8 rebounds (lets keep watching this young man), and the Pistons’ starting front line had seven boards each (Rasheed Wallace did it in 18 minutes), all told, the Bulls got out rebounded 51-30, giving up 15 offensive boards. Meanwhile, the Bull’s started in some pathetic half court trap, in an effort to keep the ball out of Billup’s hands in transition. They accomplished that mission, but Tayshaun Prince did an admirable job bring the ball up court, giving it to Billups once the point guard was good and set. All in all, the Pistons were never taken out of their game, and the Bulls never looked like they were ever into it. I wonder if the Bulls are just content, I certainly hope not as I still believe that this team can take it to the finals if they get it together (and if the Pistons start slipping).

-Meanwhile, in Utah, we saw a game of contrasting styles indeed. Don’t let the triple digit score fool you, this game saw a back and forth where some stretches were played up tempo, and during others Utah was able to slow things down a bit. I was really surprised how well Golden State was able to bother Boozer, holding him to 6-15. Though, his 10 offensive rebounds, 20 overall, speak for themselves. I also immediately regret not putting Al Harrington in the scout, I didn’t think he could bounce back from the last series and I was clearly wrong. We are in for another good one involving the Jazz.

Warriors/Jazz

The biggest benefactors of Utah’s game 7 victory over Houston? Well Utah of course. But Golden State was also thanking the basketball gods on Saturday night. While a match up with Houston would have been a nightmare, the Warriors are much better equipped to deal with this smaller Utah squad, and the result is going to be another closely fought series for both teams. There are question marks for each side. How will the Warriors deal with Utah’s big man duo? Dealing with Okur will be like dealing with Nowitzki, and as we’ve seen, the Warriors are well equipped to handle that. What about Boozer? An overlooked low post player for so many years (thanks to injuries), Boozer is coming into his own at just the right time. It is likely that Biedrins will see a lot of time guarding Boozer, and the young Latvian has shown that he is a more than capable defender. However, Boozer is so tough to guard because of he can score so many ways on the low block. With a reliable fade away, a solid dribble, and of course a huge build, Boozer reminds me in a lot of ways as a smaller, quicker, less skilled Tim Duncan. Needless to say, Golden State is going to have their hands filled down low. However, there are match up problems for Utah as well, namely, who is going to stop the ball and guard Baron Davis in transition? The best Utah defenders are their front line (which includes the versatile Kirilenko). But Kirilenko is not quick enough to guard Davis, and will likely be tasked with shutting down Stephen Jackson (a task for which he is very well equipped). Without a proper check, Davis might have free reign in transition, a huge problem for a team that’s trying to slow the tempo and control the pace. Both teams have pretty big issues, but considering the Jazz’s steadiness and the Warriors’ volatile nature, I’m gonna go with the higher seed.

Jazz in 7

Suns/Spurs

The West’s marquee match up for this second round is now even bigger because the Mavs are out of the playoffs (feels kinda weird, doesn’t it?). This is a series that features perhaps the two best teams left in the playoffs, and pits the league’s best grind it out defense against its most efficient up tempo offense. As I talked about when discussing their first round match up with Denver, San-Antonio’s biggest strength is their ability to masterfully control the tempo of a game. Consider the fact that, during the regular season, Phoenix averaged 12 points less than normal against the Spurs. On the individual side, the Spurs defenders have taken most of Phoenix’s big guns off their game. Nash shot 30% from behind the arc against Tony Parker and whatever help the Spurs gave him, a 15% decrease from his season average. Shawn Marion struggles as well, with his FG% dropping to a ghastly 37%. The other member of the Suns big three, Stoudemire, is well recognized for having big games against San Antonio, especially during their last series in 2005 in which he blew up for over 35 a game. People are putting that stat all over the place, neglecting to point out that that series was never competitive. What happens is that when San Antonio slows the game down, the Phoenix offense becomes a pick and roll or two man game with Nash and Stoudemire. So Soudemire gets more touches against the Spurs, but that’s exactly what San Antonio wants. San Antonio is not perfect, this will not be a sweep, though I don’t think it will be so competitive either. Look for San Antonio to steal one on the road early, defend their home court, and pull it out in six.

San Antonio in 6

EDIT: Looking over old posts, I realize that I had first picked the Spurs to win in five. The only reason why I changed it was because to do so would require San Antonio to win two games, including an elimination game five, on the road. I think its more likely they drop two in Phoenix, but take care of business in Texas to send the Suns packing

New Jersey/Cleveland

Though Detroit/Chicago will rightly be in the spotlight, the 2/6 match up between the Cavs and Nets will be a good one to watch as well. During the regular season, Cleveland took two out of three from New Jersey, with the home team winning each. The last game was a bit of a blowout, Cleveland took it by 18. My gut tells me that the Nets, with the way they have been playing, will take this series, but the stats tell another tale. Cleveland’s box score from the three games against the Nets reads like a normal Cavs game; nothing New Jersey did took Cleveland off its game. The numbers for both teams are close, and no one Cleveland player did significantly better or worse than normal. New Jersey, however, should be concerned if the season box is anything to go by. While Carter has been great against the Cavs, netting 27 a game on 53% shooting (50% from 3), the other two members of the big three haven’t done nearly as well. Kidd got 9 points a game against them, though this isn’t that concerning considering his 9 boards, 8 assists, and the fact that he’s playing at another level anyway. More concerning is Jefferson who is shooting 35% en route to 12 points a game. Clearly, Hughes has been doing his job on Jefferson. New Jersey is also averaging 18 turnovers against a stingy Cav defense, a far cry from the 14 New Jersey gets on a regular basis. If Richardson cannot find a way to pick up his shooting, the Nets will have very few options for spreading out the defense, allowing the Cavs to pack it inside to keep Kidd and Carter out of the paint. This one will be close, but I’m going to go with Cleveland.

Cavaliers in 6

Detroit vs. Chicago

As I’ve said twice now already in this space, I’m really, really looking forward to this series. I picked Detroit in seven before the playoffs began and I’m sticking with that, though a lot of evidence points in the opposite direction. What’s going to be great about this series is that it showcases two great defensive teams with very different styles. Chicago’s defense is designed to lead to fast break opportunities. The Bulls pack the defense inside, forcing the opposing team to take outside shots, and then the quick Bulls guards grab the rebound and run with it. Detroit is quite the opposite. When they play man, they practically dare opposing guards to try to take them off the dribble or make an entry pass. Their perimeter defense is so tight its hard for either of those to happen, but its really the only way to beat them because it is so tough to get open looks from outside. While the Bulls like to push the tempo off missed shots, the Pistons like to set up their deadly, patient offence. As I pick a winner, I’m throwing all the stats out the window for this one. The fact of the matter is, this is a professional Detroit team, able to turn it on at the right time, which they have done. Before the playoffs began I questioned their ability to do just that, I worried that they might be coasting, but their domination of the Magic has shown me that my worries had no foundation. Like I said in my initial prediction, this series can go either way. I pick Detroit for their depth, and because Chicago, as a perimeter oriented team, fits right into their hands. But man will this be a good one.

Detroit in 7

The NBA is racially charged?

First of all, second round starts Saturday, I should have match up breakdowns by tomorrow night. There are going to be two great games on TV tonight, and unless a miracle happens, I wont be able to watch either, major bummer. I’ll say this though, Houston and Utah are both playing great basketball, and I expect the Jazz to extend to seven tonight. I also expect Golden State to take care of business tonight, but if the Mavs win, I don’t think Golden State has the ability to win a game seven on the road.

The biggest story right now, or what should be the biggest story right now (honestly, what is Kobe doing on espn.com’s front page?) is the study done by Justin Wolfers, a business professor at Penn, and Joseph Price, a Cornell economics student. As you might have heard, these two analyzed foul calls and turnovers from 1991 to 2004 and found that referee teams (which are made of three people) that are predominantly white make 4.5% more calls on black players. While the opposite is also true (black refs calling more on white players) the effect there is much less and seems to be negligible.

Now, ever since David Stern has begun to remarket the league back in the mid ‘80s, the NBA’s racial make up has been relegated to elephant in the room, everyone sees it and no one in any official position talks about it. Because the NBA partially controls the content being aired on ESPN, TNT, and ABC, the major media outlets don’t address it much either. So when the New York Times propels race relations to the front page, the NBA quickly was up in arms with a reaction. The NBA produced its own study, written by unnamed ‘experts,’ which examined individual calls and claimed no bias. While the NBA’s study is useful in that it isolates individual referee’s calls, it has a much smaller data base (148,000 calls, that might not even be a full season), and its anonymous authorship coupled with the fact that it is produced in house and not by independent scholars makes it highly dubious.

Is race an issue in the NBA, with out a doubt. Race plays a role in much of what the NBA does as an organization, and some would argue that it has a lot to do with how the fans interact. The NBA is a league in which predominantly white league leadership oversees a predominantly black group of sports-entertainers for the benefit of a predominantly white fan base. There is a lot that can be said about this, and if anyone is interested, I highly recommend David Shields work Black Planet. (http://www.amazon.com/Black-Planet-Facing-During-Season/dp/0609806661) Shields, a professor at Washinton University, followed around the Seatle Sonics in the mid ‘90s, producing an insightful look at race’s role in the NBA and how it is addressed (or unaddressed) by the league, its players, and its fans.

So what about this new study? I cannot say I’m surprised. Everyone who takes an intro to psych class can tell you how powerful stereotype is when it operates on the subconscious. Referees are human beings, and they have their prejeduces, even if they do not foster them consciously or overtly. No one is claming that the NBA’s refs, or league officials for that matter, are racist, rather they are claiming that race plays a role in the NBA, just like it does (unfortunitly) everywhere else. I would like to be able to say that we live in a fully color blind world, I cannot. Certianly, the relationship between blacks and whites is nothing like it used to be, and as far as race relations go, I think this society has been heading in a good direction. But no one should expect that we can completely remove human prejudices, even from the most impartial observers. More important than the question of whether this study holds water or not, I think, is the issue of what should be done now. Is there a way to remove some of this prejudice? There must be, though I cannot think of anything practical anyone can do right now. Rather than outright denying these claims, the NBA should be working on ways of alleviating the problem, if it can. Of course, to do this would be to acknowledge that race is, indeed, a powerful force in the NBA, just as it is in all of society; but if the NBA took necessary steps to take care of this issue, it would speak volumes about its moral priorities as an organization. As it stands right now, Stern and his lawyers look like a bunch of scared business men trying to cover their asses.

Don't, Don't, Don't Believe the Hype

Between now and Thursday, when the Mavs and Warriors battle again, there is going to be a lot of talk about Dirk, and how he ‘elevated his game,’ ‘silenced critics,’ etc. I think this says a lot about the relationship the media has with the NBA and how powerful they are in influencing how the game is sold. The media is trying to spin the series to tell us fans a story. It’s a story of emotion, where the emotionally charged Warriors are out-emoting the scared Mavs. Dirk Nowitzki, the erstwhile MVP is being bashed because he lacks the ‘fire’ to elevate his game. He is compared to the great scorers of all time and falls short, not because of a deficiency in his game, not because he is easily defended, but because of his ‘passion,’ his ‘drive,’ his ‘confidence.’ Then, like manna from heaven (from the league’s perspective), Dirk puts together his best game of the series in a do or die situation, and a new chapter is added to this heavily constructed story. Columns will come out tomorrow applauding Dirk for silencing the critics, ignoring the fact that the people writing these columns are the very critics he silenced. Folks, most of the people whose stuff you read (yes, even Bill Simmons) are writing for mass media outlets, most of which have close financial ties to the NBA. And so they spin, taking a complex series and telling it as a nice, neat, narrative.

Basketball, like all sports, is in large part a game of intensity, emotion does factor heavily into what these players do every night. That said, 67 win teams do not lose to 42 win teams on intensity alone. Make no mistake people, Dirk Nowitzki is as competitive as most. Not everyone is Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson, or Steve Nash (to name a few), but if you don’t think Nowitzki plays with fire than you aren’t watching closely enough. What’s hurting the Mavs is not an emotional deficiency, it has to do with a combination of a brilliant coaching job on the part of Don Nelson, the unique nature of Nowitzki’s game, and the fact that the Mavs just don’t match up well with the Warriors.

Don Nelson is of a unique mold among coaches in that he needs teams that can play to his style, he doesn’t coach to a team’s strengths (see Knicks, 1995). However, when blessed with the right type of lineup, he is among the best strategists in the game. When he was with Golden State the first time, and definitely during his stint with Dallas, Nelson was great at running the team in a way that emphasized his team’s ability. Add that to the fact that he is intimately acquainted with the Mavs’ personnel, and you have a recipe for a great coaching job. I could cite a number of things that he has done to hurt the Mavs, but let’s focus on how he is defending Dirk.

When people claim that Dirk Nowitzki redefined the 4 position, they say it because he has a unique playing style. Dirk is slow, he can be explosive off one dribble but does a poor job creating his own shot off the dribble. Despite his size, he plays best while facing the basket, and because of this can be very ineffective on the low block. And, of course, Dirk’s stroke combined with his size makes his shot nigh unstoppable. To play down his deficiencies, the Mavs usually run a 1-4 set, which means that Dirk gets the ball in the middle of the floor, while everyone else spreads out along the base line (1 player at the top, 4 players at the bottom). Usually teams isolate their scorers on one side or the other. The problem with isolating the middle of the floor, like the Mavs do, is that it means that a double team can come from anywhere. Nelson knows this, and he has the personnel to exploit this weakness in the Mavs set. He has doubles coming from all over the floor, forcing Nowtizki to make a decision: He can try to pass out of the double team, a tough prospect because the middle of the floor is a difficult place to pass out of effectively (and Dirk is not a terrific passer). Another option is to use his dribble to commit to one side, which is exactly what the Warriors want Nowitzki to do. Once they get Nowitzki to put the ball on the floor, they have him at his most vulnerable. Turnovers and bad shots ensue. These tactics are effective, they take Dirk off his game, and THAT is when the mind games start, that is when the confidence begins to eek away. It is not emotion that is dictating this series, it is strategy.

And regarding whether Nowitzki actually ‘elevated his game’ in the fourth tonight, undoubtedly Dirk played his best fourth quarter tonight, but very little of what he did was different from other games. Those two big threes he hit in the last few minutes? They looked eerily similar to the two he hit at the end of game 4. The difference? These came a few minutes earlier, where as Dirk’s hot shooting in game four was too little too late. So, when you read that Dirk has found his fire, regained the competitive spirit, or whatever hyperbolic statement ESPN.com throws at you, think really hard before you buy into the hype.