There’s really nothing about this game that needs to be said. The Spurs won tonight just as the won game three, just as they’ve won most other games. I do think, however, there are a number of interesting stories that came out of these finals, and the first one was just made evident from Lebron James’ last press conference as a 2007 NBA Finalist. People have been saying for months how much pressure is on Lebron’s shoulders. He has to carry his team offensively, put up with intense scrutiny, and, according to some, save the floundering NBA. Well this past week he did none of these, and he is taking a lot of flak.
I am the last person who wants to make excuses for James. The type of criticism levied at him by Rick Barry is all accurate. He doesn’t have a reliable jumper, he has trouble moving without the ball, he has zero skills in the post (unheard of for a 6’8 guy), and he often makes bad decisions in crunch time. People have given him a free pass for four years, and have done him a serious disservice, there are clearly elements of his game that needs improving, and he needs to improve them under intense scrutiny. Which brings me to the depressing post-game press conference I just witnessed. I don’t have a transcript, but here are a few points about Lebron James in interviews. He is very charming, but he is also very polished. You can tell that years of molding have taught this young man exactly what to say and how to say it. The result? Lebron usually does not convey much emotion other than the arrogance expected from a young superstar. Tonight it was different. Lebron’s mouth was smiling but his eyes told a different story. James looked disturbed. Disturbed by the fact that, frankly, he did not do the types of things he expected himself to do. Disturbed because he knows that millions of people expect him to develop a jumper and a post game by October. Disturbed because he had the hopes of an entire city on his back and he faltered.
Now lets be fair, Lebron’s play had as much to do with San Antonio and Bruce Bowen as it did with Lebron’s flaws. But that’s not the way James saw it. Every question shot at him led to a downcast facial expression and an answer that basically said “I need to do better.” When asked whether he needed a better team around him, he basically responded by saying that the team’s progress will begin and end with him. This is true, of course, but maybe all of this is too much for him right now. Because looking at Lebron tonight I saw not a man-child, but just a child, a child who has a lot of questions and not so many answers. James looked worried, he looked worried that he might not have enough to make the necessary changes to his game. Not enough to make it back to this stage, and not enough to leave the Finals’ as a winner.
And I feel for him.
Showing posts with label Cleveland Cavaliers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cleveland Cavaliers. Show all posts
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Game 3 Notes
-Playing the Empire’s theme from Star Wars when the Spurs were introduced? Brilliant. You could tell some of the Spurs were having trouble keeping a straight face… Matt Bonner just broke up laughing.
-The Cavs tried to be classy with the benching of Larry Hughes, instead it came off as disingenuous. By claiming that the lineup change was due entirely to Hughes’ decision, they forced it to make it seem like his foot was worse than it was. Now he can’t play, he’s stuck in a suit. I think all parties would have been happier if the Cavs had been up front about the necessary lineup change, they could have utilized Hughes for a few minutes here and there, which he is definitely good for.
-Other than the fact that Gibson is actually starting, the biggest defensive change for the Cavs is that Gibson seems to be going over screens while guarding Parker. Now, traditioanlly, you go over screens on jump shooters and under on players looking to penetrate, going under usually gives a better angle to cut off the dribble. However, the Cavs are looking to trap off the pick and roll, and by sending Gibson over the screens they allow the trap to come more quickly. However, they are also making Gibson work harder, and setting themselves up for a couple of hand-check calls.
-Its midway into the first and the Cavs are doing a much better job on the glass, especially on the offensive end. This is the one area where they have the advantage over San Antonio and if they can keep it up they have a chance to win. Offensive rebounds give the Cavs extra possessions, every rebound represents another chance to get a good shot. Because the Spurs are so great at forcing teams into missed shots, the Cavs need all the chances they can get. The ability to get offensive rebounds is always important for the Cavs, its all the more important against a team like the Spurs
-If Tony Parker wins Finals MVP, are we going to be subjected to a David Stern speech about how this truly signifies the international, global nature of the NBA? Ten bucks says we will be. At least its better than his various verbal hand jobs to Michael Jordan during the 1997-1998 season.
-This game is playing right into the Cavs’s hands. A forty point half for both teams? What more could they ask for? Unfortunately, the Spurs might just be the best slow tempo team in the league (it just happens that they can play fast too). Still, the Cavs are outplaying San Antonio on both ends, the Spurs need to get it together because the Cavs are more than capable of stealing this game away from them.
-Bruce Bowen makes for a good interview. Its too bad he gets such a bad rep for his style of play. But, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, all great on-ball defenders utilize tricks and play ‘dirty’ sometimes. Jordan did it, Kobe does it, I do it… the list goes on.
-Wow, I didn't update once in the second half, I was just that riveted. Truth be told, other than the finish, which was fun, this was pretty crappy basketball. The Cavs played fairly well at times, but their offense is just so stagnant you wouldn’t notices. Meanwhile the Spurs didn’t help out the game’s aesthetic quality by playing down to the level of competition. I’d rather watch one team play well in a blow out than this, does anyone not agree?
-Terrible no-call at the end there. It didn’t exactly cost the Cavs the game, but there’s a possibility it might have (Van Gundy says James would have gotten the continuation but I just can’t imagine that). People are going to be talking about this for days, and it will only take away from the Spurs’ eventual victory.
-Can we just forgo handing out MVP? After a game like this who deserves it?
-Props to the Cavs front line tonight for the job the did on Duncan and on help defense in general. Bigger props to Sasha Pavlovich for his amazing job on Manu tonight. If the Cavs have a future, it will be through his development as the Pippen to Lebron’s Jordan (and to Varejao’s Horace Grant). Mark my words, if this team is contending in 4 years its because these two international players have lived up to their talent.
-The Cavs tried to be classy with the benching of Larry Hughes, instead it came off as disingenuous. By claiming that the lineup change was due entirely to Hughes’ decision, they forced it to make it seem like his foot was worse than it was. Now he can’t play, he’s stuck in a suit. I think all parties would have been happier if the Cavs had been up front about the necessary lineup change, they could have utilized Hughes for a few minutes here and there, which he is definitely good for.
-Other than the fact that Gibson is actually starting, the biggest defensive change for the Cavs is that Gibson seems to be going over screens while guarding Parker. Now, traditioanlly, you go over screens on jump shooters and under on players looking to penetrate, going under usually gives a better angle to cut off the dribble. However, the Cavs are looking to trap off the pick and roll, and by sending Gibson over the screens they allow the trap to come more quickly. However, they are also making Gibson work harder, and setting themselves up for a couple of hand-check calls.
-Its midway into the first and the Cavs are doing a much better job on the glass, especially on the offensive end. This is the one area where they have the advantage over San Antonio and if they can keep it up they have a chance to win. Offensive rebounds give the Cavs extra possessions, every rebound represents another chance to get a good shot. Because the Spurs are so great at forcing teams into missed shots, the Cavs need all the chances they can get. The ability to get offensive rebounds is always important for the Cavs, its all the more important against a team like the Spurs
-If Tony Parker wins Finals MVP, are we going to be subjected to a David Stern speech about how this truly signifies the international, global nature of the NBA? Ten bucks says we will be. At least its better than his various verbal hand jobs to Michael Jordan during the 1997-1998 season.
-This game is playing right into the Cavs’s hands. A forty point half for both teams? What more could they ask for? Unfortunately, the Spurs might just be the best slow tempo team in the league (it just happens that they can play fast too). Still, the Cavs are outplaying San Antonio on both ends, the Spurs need to get it together because the Cavs are more than capable of stealing this game away from them.
-Bruce Bowen makes for a good interview. Its too bad he gets such a bad rep for his style of play. But, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, all great on-ball defenders utilize tricks and play ‘dirty’ sometimes. Jordan did it, Kobe does it, I do it… the list goes on.
-Wow, I didn't update once in the second half, I was just that riveted. Truth be told, other than the finish, which was fun, this was pretty crappy basketball. The Cavs played fairly well at times, but their offense is just so stagnant you wouldn’t notices. Meanwhile the Spurs didn’t help out the game’s aesthetic quality by playing down to the level of competition. I’d rather watch one team play well in a blow out than this, does anyone not agree?
-Terrible no-call at the end there. It didn’t exactly cost the Cavs the game, but there’s a possibility it might have (Van Gundy says James would have gotten the continuation but I just can’t imagine that). People are going to be talking about this for days, and it will only take away from the Spurs’ eventual victory.
-Can we just forgo handing out MVP? After a game like this who deserves it?
-Props to the Cavs front line tonight for the job the did on Duncan and on help defense in general. Bigger props to Sasha Pavlovich for his amazing job on Manu tonight. If the Cavs have a future, it will be through his development as the Pippen to Lebron’s Jordan (and to Varejao’s Horace Grant). Mark my words, if this team is contending in 4 years its because these two international players have lived up to their talent.
Sunday, June 10, 2007
What more can I say
-It’s a funny thing, half way through the game I thought to myself, I really had it wrong the other day talking about a typical Spurs blowout, the deficit was just too high. And then, it happens again! If you're a Cavs fan you walk away saying "see! We can run with these guys!" If you're a Spurs fan you walk away saying, "We were never not in control of this game, comeback or no!" If you are the rest of the NBA you wonder whether this was really control or whether this was a borderline collapse.
-Another thing I take away from this game is how important it is to have a big man who could pass. For all his size and athleticism, one of the most important element of Shaq’s game is that he has great hands and hit almost anyone, anywhere on the floor. As cool as it is to make an on-target ally-oop pass from half court, it is equally difficult to make a skip pass out of a double team. It is not enough to take a dominant post player and surround him with perimeter scorers, that big man needs to be able to pass. One of the reasons the Knicks never took it to the championship level in the 1990s was that Patrick Ewing is not a phenomenal passer (though he is certainly better than Eddie Curry). Duncan, like Shaq, is vastly underrated in his ability to see the double team coming, and make the appropriate pass. He certainly showed it tonight, racking up 8 assists. His passing ability allows the entire offense to run through him without worry of bad shot or turnover. Think about how great of an asset it is to be able to initiate your offense from the post area as opposed to from beyond the arc. Instad of having to go outside in, everything becomes inside out, allowing for more threes and more dump passes to guys cutting through the lane. Without big man passing, the Spurs would not be leading the NBA in 3 pointers this post-season.
-James really responded tonight, finishing with 25-6-7 in just 38 minutes of game time. Does this mean that he has ‘figured out’ everything Bowen and the Spurs are going to throw at him? No. But I like the fact that he could pick out the defensive weaknesses mid series, by the end of the career he will be able to do this mid game.
-Anderson Varejao just amazes me with his constant effort. He is not exactly intimidating built, yet he is supremely effective in pushing and shoving his way into rebounding position. He is also becoming adept at sliding over to contest everything. His weakness? Speed. Duncan just constantly blazed by him off the dribble (‘blazed by’ is not a phrase often associated with Timmy).
-Clearly, my call before the series to give Elson some more minutes went unheralded. He had 3 fouls in 13 minutes. Still, he netted 3 boards and shot 3-3, not a terrible outing. I really like this man’s game, he is a great backup center, and a wonderful third string center (which is how the Spurs play him).
-Jacque Vaughn and Eric Snow need to have a fight to the death for who is the most offensively challenged point in the league.
-Ladies and gentleman, we had a Beno Udrih sighting! After having a fairly good ’05 post season, Udrih was completely thrown under the bus, and is clearly at odds with Pop. He’s a talented young guy though, I hope they trade him to somewhere he can develop a bit more.
-Another thing I take away from this game is how important it is to have a big man who could pass. For all his size and athleticism, one of the most important element of Shaq’s game is that he has great hands and hit almost anyone, anywhere on the floor. As cool as it is to make an on-target ally-oop pass from half court, it is equally difficult to make a skip pass out of a double team. It is not enough to take a dominant post player and surround him with perimeter scorers, that big man needs to be able to pass. One of the reasons the Knicks never took it to the championship level in the 1990s was that Patrick Ewing is not a phenomenal passer (though he is certainly better than Eddie Curry). Duncan, like Shaq, is vastly underrated in his ability to see the double team coming, and make the appropriate pass. He certainly showed it tonight, racking up 8 assists. His passing ability allows the entire offense to run through him without worry of bad shot or turnover. Think about how great of an asset it is to be able to initiate your offense from the post area as opposed to from beyond the arc. Instad of having to go outside in, everything becomes inside out, allowing for more threes and more dump passes to guys cutting through the lane. Without big man passing, the Spurs would not be leading the NBA in 3 pointers this post-season.
-James really responded tonight, finishing with 25-6-7 in just 38 minutes of game time. Does this mean that he has ‘figured out’ everything Bowen and the Spurs are going to throw at him? No. But I like the fact that he could pick out the defensive weaknesses mid series, by the end of the career he will be able to do this mid game.
-Anderson Varejao just amazes me with his constant effort. He is not exactly intimidating built, yet he is supremely effective in pushing and shoving his way into rebounding position. He is also becoming adept at sliding over to contest everything. His weakness? Speed. Duncan just constantly blazed by him off the dribble (‘blazed by’ is not a phrase often associated with Timmy).
-Clearly, my call before the series to give Elson some more minutes went unheralded. He had 3 fouls in 13 minutes. Still, he netted 3 boards and shot 3-3, not a terrible outing. I really like this man’s game, he is a great backup center, and a wonderful third string center (which is how the Spurs play him).
-Jacque Vaughn and Eric Snow need to have a fight to the death for who is the most offensively challenged point in the league.
-Ladies and gentleman, we had a Beno Udrih sighting! After having a fairly good ’05 post season, Udrih was completely thrown under the bus, and is clearly at odds with Pop. He’s a talented young guy though, I hope they trade him to somewhere he can develop a bit more.
What's Gotten into Robert Horry (and other first half observations)
Game Two is half over, and the Cavs have about half the Spurs score. Of course, I didn't expect the game to be anything like this, but the way the Spurs are playing is exactly what they did in game 1 and the rest of the playoffs (but better). So there's really not much worth noting, its all just a day at the River Walk. First of all, what the hell is wrong with Robert Horry? He's not supposed to come on until the game's waning minutes, yet he has played phenomenally, with three blocks, and a whole bunch of boards.
-Tony Parker is just waltzing into the lane. What is wrong with the Cavs' front line? Where is Drew Gooden's help defense? I join Jeff Van Gundy in being absolutely blown away by the Cavs' ineptitude.
-When he airballed the FT, I really thought that Bowen had just broken Lebron James. Clearly, I was wrong. He is still not playing well, but he has forced himself back into this game. The emphatic dunk and the string of good hard drives show that this young man is not as easily daunted as I thought.
-Harvey Araton had a nice piece in the New York Times today where he asks whether the Spurs would have the same reputation if they played in New York. He certainly has a point. The Bulls were predictable, running their offence through a single player. The Lakers of the 2000s were predictable, running a bunch of plays that involved only two players. The NBA is a part of the entertainment business, and reputation is a facade. Nothing about the Spurs reputation has anything to do with what they actually do on the court. I just posted at length about this at Five Tool Tool. EDIT: True Hoop has some more on the same issue (and cites the same article). It seems that this season has seen a growing amount of voices calling for more Spur appreciation. Lets see how they are depicted next season (I expect the league and the fans to embrace the 'bad guy' persona, booing the Spurs in every arena).
-Tony Parker is just waltzing into the lane. What is wrong with the Cavs' front line? Where is Drew Gooden's help defense? I join Jeff Van Gundy in being absolutely blown away by the Cavs' ineptitude.
-When he airballed the FT, I really thought that Bowen had just broken Lebron James. Clearly, I was wrong. He is still not playing well, but he has forced himself back into this game. The emphatic dunk and the string of good hard drives show that this young man is not as easily daunted as I thought.
-Harvey Araton had a nice piece in the New York Times today where he asks whether the Spurs would have the same reputation if they played in New York. He certainly has a point. The Bulls were predictable, running their offence through a single player. The Lakers of the 2000s were predictable, running a bunch of plays that involved only two players. The NBA is a part of the entertainment business, and reputation is a facade. Nothing about the Spurs reputation has anything to do with what they actually do on the court. I just posted at length about this at Five Tool Tool. EDIT: True Hoop has some more on the same issue (and cites the same article). It seems that this season has seen a growing amount of voices calling for more Spur appreciation. Lets see how they are depicted next season (I expect the league and the fans to embrace the 'bad guy' persona, booing the Spurs in every arena).
Saturday, June 9, 2007
Things to Look for in Game 2
First of all, thanks to Jerusalem Joe for showing me how to do this
EDIT: Got It!!
Game one went exactly the way I figured it would the other night. It was a typical Spurs blowout, where they go up big to enter the fourth and then allow the lead to dwindle in the name of energy conservation. Seriously, the Spurs have invented a new type of domination, one where the final score doesn’t show the sheer depth of command the Spurs had over the game. Consider: Most would acknowledge that the Spurs have played dominant basketball this post season, yet of their 13 wins, only three were double figure victories. In game five in the Denver series the Spurs closed out by 15, leaving no doubt that they belonged in the second round. In games 4&5 against Utah, the Spurs had something to prove after they were drubbed by 26, so they won by 12 and 25. However, this is not to say that the Spurs were playing in close games all the way, only three of their games were won by two possession or less (and only game 5 in Phoenix was a one possession game by the end, the Spurs won by three). Other than those six games, the Spurs have won two games by seven points, two by eight points, and three games by nine. What this tells me is that they are proficient at knowing exactly how much of their lead they have to protect to ensure the win. A stat I’d like to see is the amount the Spurs have led after three quarters, but I haven’t been able to find it on either ESPN, 82games.com or basketball-reference.com (my sources for most statistics). Still, from the games I’ve seen, it always seems like the Spurs are up more at the end of the third than at the end of the fourth. Usually, it seems that they lose some of the lead in the fourth quarter (like in Game 1 of the Finals), but apply the breaks on the other team just enough to make sure they always keep the game out of reach. Of course, it is possible to interpret this as a team that easily gives up 4th quarter leads, but the Spurs always win these games, and seem to do it in a way that never makes the outcome in doubt.
A couple of things I’ll be looking forward to seeing in game 2:
How is Lebron going to adjust to the Spurs coverage? You know he will, but you also have to think that Popovich has other defensive schemes he’s going to be using. I hope to see a bit of a chess match between Bron Bron and the Spurs’ gurus on the bench.
I know Mike Brown has made it clear that Larry Hughes is his starting pg, but I cannot fathom him not giving Gibson more minutes. I want to see what Gibson does with these minutes and whether the Spurs have enough to put the clamps on him too.
Another Hughes related note. At this point, it is clear the Lebron is out defending Larry. Brown had some success when he stuck Lebron on Tony Parker and hid Hughes in the corner guarding Bruce Bowen. Clearly, with Hughes hobbling, this was a nice band aid in game one to stop some of the bleeding, but I don’t have faith that Lebron can effectively guard Tony for the rest of the series and keep up his energy on the offensive end. Who is Mike Brown going to go to that has the lateral quickness to keep up with Parker. Might we have another Eric Snow sighting?
Big Z is not going to score two points again. The question is, will he get enough help from the perimeter to keep the Spurs from camping out around him?
All in all, game two should be fascinating; I expect a bunch of adjustments from the Cavs and some interesting countermoves from San Antonio.
EDIT: Got It!!
Game one went exactly the way I figured it would the other night. It was a typical Spurs blowout, where they go up big to enter the fourth and then allow the lead to dwindle in the name of energy conservation. Seriously, the Spurs have invented a new type of domination, one where the final score doesn’t show the sheer depth of command the Spurs had over the game. Consider: Most would acknowledge that the Spurs have played dominant basketball this post season, yet of their 13 wins, only three were double figure victories. In game five in the Denver series the Spurs closed out by 15, leaving no doubt that they belonged in the second round. In games 4&5 against Utah, the Spurs had something to prove after they were drubbed by 26, so they won by 12 and 25. However, this is not to say that the Spurs were playing in close games all the way, only three of their games were won by two possession or less (and only game 5 in Phoenix was a one possession game by the end, the Spurs won by three). Other than those six games, the Spurs have won two games by seven points, two by eight points, and three games by nine. What this tells me is that they are proficient at knowing exactly how much of their lead they have to protect to ensure the win. A stat I’d like to see is the amount the Spurs have led after three quarters, but I haven’t been able to find it on either ESPN, 82games.com or basketball-reference.com (my sources for most statistics). Still, from the games I’ve seen, it always seems like the Spurs are up more at the end of the third than at the end of the fourth. Usually, it seems that they lose some of the lead in the fourth quarter (like in Game 1 of the Finals), but apply the breaks on the other team just enough to make sure they always keep the game out of reach. Of course, it is possible to interpret this as a team that easily gives up 4th quarter leads, but the Spurs always win these games, and seem to do it in a way that never makes the outcome in doubt.
A couple of things I’ll be looking forward to seeing in game 2:
How is Lebron going to adjust to the Spurs coverage? You know he will, but you also have to think that Popovich has other defensive schemes he’s going to be using. I hope to see a bit of a chess match between Bron Bron and the Spurs’ gurus on the bench.
I know Mike Brown has made it clear that Larry Hughes is his starting pg, but I cannot fathom him not giving Gibson more minutes. I want to see what Gibson does with these minutes and whether the Spurs have enough to put the clamps on him too.
Another Hughes related note. At this point, it is clear the Lebron is out defending Larry. Brown had some success when he stuck Lebron on Tony Parker and hid Hughes in the corner guarding Bruce Bowen. Clearly, with Hughes hobbling, this was a nice band aid in game one to stop some of the bleeding, but I don’t have faith that Lebron can effectively guard Tony for the rest of the series and keep up his energy on the offensive end. Who is Mike Brown going to go to that has the lateral quickness to keep up with Parker. Might we have another Eric Snow sighting?
Big Z is not going to score two points again. The question is, will he get enough help from the perimeter to keep the Spurs from camping out around him?
All in all, game two should be fascinating; I expect a bunch of adjustments from the Cavs and some interesting countermoves from San Antonio.
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Remember the Spurs
“Tim Duncan is the best player of this generation.” Right now, you read this all over the internet, sports writers have been heaping praise on Duncan and the Spurs since their ousting of the Suns in the Conference Semifinals. Though the above statement has been manifest since around 2004, for a while there was a collective Alzheimer’s in the media regarding the accomplishments of this man and his team. All of that has suddenly changed. Whether it is because of the appalling (from some perspectives) lack of star power since round 1, or whether it is an attempt to make the public forget about the Spurs’ dubious win against Phoenix, sports writers in all avenues are suddenly figuring out what the rest of us have known for years: Duncan’s Spurs deserve to be recognized side by side with, if not above, Shaq’s Lakers as the best team of this era.
And yet, for all the praise going around these days, this is not how the Spurs are going to be remembered. Assuming Lebron James ends up sustaining his level of play and enters into the pantheon of over hyped NBA greats, Duncan and the Spurs will either be the faces of that insurmountable opponent that frustrated young Lebron’s first attempt, or they will forever be known as the giant that the young one felled at the tender age of 22. I compare it to the way we look at those great late 80’s Pistons teams. Today, we look at them as the obstacle that Jordan had to get over to become great. We don’t often remember the Pistons as their own team, instead placing them in the context of the Jordan legacy. I feel as though, win or lose, this is how the 2007 San Antonio Spurs will be remembered. Not that they care of course. It is well known that the Spurs care only about winning and Tony Parker’s rap career—reputation pales in comparison.
Even if Pop and Co will never admit to caring about their place in history, I wonder if the basketball world is doing itself a disservice. What the Spurs have done in the past 9 years is nothing short of remarkable. Their accomplishments have been muted for a number of reasons (such as the fact that they have failed to win two years in a row), but the fact is, they have been among the favorites to win a title every year. In 2000, they would have gone deep into the playoffs but for Tim Duncan’s foot injury that resulted in the champs getting ousted in round one. In 2001 and 2002 they were in a period of transition, they’re roster had huge changes between their 1999 and 2003 titles. Still, they remained the best team outside of California (I would have loved to see a Spurs/Kings series during these years. Could you imagine Tim Duncan going at Chris Webber in his prime?). In 2004 they would have won the title if not for that highly deflating Fischer shot and the resulting losses. (By the way, does anyone else see parallels between the Lakers/Spurs series in 2004 and the Mavericks/Heat series last year? In both cases, a team loaded with veterans found itself down, and rallied after a close victory to sweep the rest of a series against a superior team. Just a thought) In 2006, despite Tim Duncan’s severe foot injury, they played as well as ever, falling to a healthier, younger, and perhaps better Dallas team. People talk all the time about Jordan’s flu game, well Duncan had the plantar fasciitis season! I don’t expect people to suddenly give San Antonio their due, its much too late for that, but I hope that 20 years from now, we realize that we were witness to a wonderful era in basketball history, a time when the San Antonio Spurs defined success.
EDIT: Need confirmation of my fear? Kevin Pelton of supersonics.com, in his NBA Finals preview, writes: "Still, as Cleveland prepares to face San Antonio in the first NBA Finals in franchise history, the series is seen as largely about James. Will this be the first step towards his legacy or champion or another learning lesson along that path?"
And yet, for all the praise going around these days, this is not how the Spurs are going to be remembered. Assuming Lebron James ends up sustaining his level of play and enters into the pantheon of over hyped NBA greats, Duncan and the Spurs will either be the faces of that insurmountable opponent that frustrated young Lebron’s first attempt, or they will forever be known as the giant that the young one felled at the tender age of 22. I compare it to the way we look at those great late 80’s Pistons teams. Today, we look at them as the obstacle that Jordan had to get over to become great. We don’t often remember the Pistons as their own team, instead placing them in the context of the Jordan legacy. I feel as though, win or lose, this is how the 2007 San Antonio Spurs will be remembered. Not that they care of course. It is well known that the Spurs care only about winning and Tony Parker’s rap career—reputation pales in comparison.
Even if Pop and Co will never admit to caring about their place in history, I wonder if the basketball world is doing itself a disservice. What the Spurs have done in the past 9 years is nothing short of remarkable. Their accomplishments have been muted for a number of reasons (such as the fact that they have failed to win two years in a row), but the fact is, they have been among the favorites to win a title every year. In 2000, they would have gone deep into the playoffs but for Tim Duncan’s foot injury that resulted in the champs getting ousted in round one. In 2001 and 2002 they were in a period of transition, they’re roster had huge changes between their 1999 and 2003 titles. Still, they remained the best team outside of California (I would have loved to see a Spurs/Kings series during these years. Could you imagine Tim Duncan going at Chris Webber in his prime?). In 2004 they would have won the title if not for that highly deflating Fischer shot and the resulting losses. (By the way, does anyone else see parallels between the Lakers/Spurs series in 2004 and the Mavericks/Heat series last year? In both cases, a team loaded with veterans found itself down, and rallied after a close victory to sweep the rest of a series against a superior team. Just a thought) In 2006, despite Tim Duncan’s severe foot injury, they played as well as ever, falling to a healthier, younger, and perhaps better Dallas team. People talk all the time about Jordan’s flu game, well Duncan had the plantar fasciitis season! I don’t expect people to suddenly give San Antonio their due, its much too late for that, but I hope that 20 years from now, we realize that we were witness to a wonderful era in basketball history, a time when the San Antonio Spurs defined success.
EDIT: Need confirmation of my fear? Kevin Pelton of supersonics.com, in his NBA Finals preview, writes: "Still, as Cleveland prepares to face San Antonio in the first NBA Finals in franchise history, the series is seen as largely about James. Will this be the first step towards his legacy or champion or another learning lesson along that path?"
Monday, June 4, 2007
Cavs/Spurs
Who saw this coming? Well the guys at thepaintedarea.com for one, but few others. My instincts tell me that San Antonio will have no problem, but I'm tired of sleeping on the Cavaliers, who I think pose some interesting match up difficulties for the Spurs. In fact, both teams have questions in matching up with their foe:
Where will Lebron get his points? While the Pistons were known as a great defensive team, they did not show it in the conference finals. The Spurs’ interior D is not going to give up the kind of penetration that Rasheed Wallace felt compelled to ignore in game five. Furthermore, San Antonio’s disciplined rotation schemes are going to allow them to recover when Lebron penetrates and dishes, I don’t expect Gibson to go off game 6 style against the Spurs. Because of these two factors, Cleveland is going to live and die by Lebron’s midrange jump shot. Over the course of the Pistons series, James has shown that he has the ability to take, and make, the types of difficult shots that Kobe is known for. With Bowen covering him, James is going to have a tough time muscling his way into the post, and Duncan’s help is going to stop easy buckets off penetration. Until the Spurs start to send hard doubles at Lebron (on cnnsi.com, Tony Parker claims that the Spurs are opting for single coverage to start), James’ best scoring opportunities are going to come from jump shots. If Lebron can continue to make these, a lot of pressure will be taken off the rest of Cleveland’s offense. Something to note is that this is the first time throughout the playoffs that Bowen gets a defensive assignment that will rely on his strength more than his (diminished) quickness. While I expect Bowen to do better here than he did with his stints on Deron Williams, he has had trouble with Kobe in the past and might have more trouble with Lebron that people expect.
Who guards Tim Duncan and can Varejao fit into the offense? The way I see it, Duncan is too quick for Ilgauskas, and much too big for everyone else in the Cavs starting five. I expect hard doubles as long as Varejao is off the floor. However, Varejao has shown himself to be one of the league’s more reliable post defenders, and if he can deal with Duncan single coverage, the Cavaliers will be much better for it. With Varejao the question is, and always has been, whether he can play without bogging down Cleveland’s offence. I expect Varejao to get major minutes in this series, perhaps even more than the 26 he averaged in the Detroit series, it will be interesting to see how Cleveland’s offense works with him on the floor (can you even run the pick and roll with him, or do you send him to the far corner, running the P&R with Gooden instead?).
How do the Spurs guard the Cavs front line and which Drew Gooden will we see? I expect the Spurs to put Duncan on Gooden and use Oberto and Elson to use their quickness to bother Big Z. I think Elson will be especially useful in using his length, he is one of the few guys with arms long enough to really bother Ilgauskas. In the Utah series, however, it was Oberto who got the bulk of the minutes (31), while Elson languished on the bench. Pop has shown great aptitude at playing each of his center’s to their strengths, using them when the match up is most appropriate, thus I expect to see more of Elson this series, at least on defense (see below). Related to this is the question of Gooden, who has played significantly worse as the playoffs have gone on. Gooden netted only 9 ppg in the Pistons series, down from 14 in the Washington series. Even more important is the dip in rebounding, Gooden went from grabbing 10 a game in the first two rounds to just 5 in the Conference Finals. Its not like Duncan is going to make his life easier either, Timmy is, after all, one of the world’s best post defenders. However, if Duncan is forced to slide over and help on James’ penetrations, perhaps Gooden will get a few more open looks than he did with Wallace on him. Wallace was loath to slide over and help (explaining Lebron’s lay-up clinic in game 5), but the Spurs are going to want Duncan to help, giving Gooden a few open looks.
Should the Spurs run? YES! The Spurs are not known as a running team, but they are starting to get a reputation as a team that can play at any speed, shown most clearly in the Phoenix series this year. The Cavs defense absolutely smothers the pick and roll, as we saw against New Jersey, and I expect them to give Parker and Duncan trouble when they attempt to run the Spurs’ offense. In fact, with their combination of front court quickness and back court size, the Cavs are better equipped to deal with San Antiono’s pick and roll than any team not from Dallas. If their bread and butter isn’t their, how will the Spurs respond? How about going small, playing stretches with Parker, Manu, Bowen, Finley/Barry, and Duncan/Oberto, running the ball and forcing Cleveland to take one of their bigs off the floor? Parker and Ginobili form one of the best (and most underrated) running back courts in the game, and with Finley or Barry to spread the floor and Duncan and Oberto sprinting to finish long passes, the Spurs might want to do their Phoenix imitation in an effort to win the series.
All and all, I think Cleveland presents and interesting challenge for San Antonio, but the Spurs are playing as well as they ever have. Besides, San Antonio always wins in the odd years!
Spurs in 6
Where will Lebron get his points? While the Pistons were known as a great defensive team, they did not show it in the conference finals. The Spurs’ interior D is not going to give up the kind of penetration that Rasheed Wallace felt compelled to ignore in game five. Furthermore, San Antonio’s disciplined rotation schemes are going to allow them to recover when Lebron penetrates and dishes, I don’t expect Gibson to go off game 6 style against the Spurs. Because of these two factors, Cleveland is going to live and die by Lebron’s midrange jump shot. Over the course of the Pistons series, James has shown that he has the ability to take, and make, the types of difficult shots that Kobe is known for. With Bowen covering him, James is going to have a tough time muscling his way into the post, and Duncan’s help is going to stop easy buckets off penetration. Until the Spurs start to send hard doubles at Lebron (on cnnsi.com, Tony Parker claims that the Spurs are opting for single coverage to start), James’ best scoring opportunities are going to come from jump shots. If Lebron can continue to make these, a lot of pressure will be taken off the rest of Cleveland’s offense. Something to note is that this is the first time throughout the playoffs that Bowen gets a defensive assignment that will rely on his strength more than his (diminished) quickness. While I expect Bowen to do better here than he did with his stints on Deron Williams, he has had trouble with Kobe in the past and might have more trouble with Lebron that people expect.
Who guards Tim Duncan and can Varejao fit into the offense? The way I see it, Duncan is too quick for Ilgauskas, and much too big for everyone else in the Cavs starting five. I expect hard doubles as long as Varejao is off the floor. However, Varejao has shown himself to be one of the league’s more reliable post defenders, and if he can deal with Duncan single coverage, the Cavaliers will be much better for it. With Varejao the question is, and always has been, whether he can play without bogging down Cleveland’s offence. I expect Varejao to get major minutes in this series, perhaps even more than the 26 he averaged in the Detroit series, it will be interesting to see how Cleveland’s offense works with him on the floor (can you even run the pick and roll with him, or do you send him to the far corner, running the P&R with Gooden instead?).
How do the Spurs guard the Cavs front line and which Drew Gooden will we see? I expect the Spurs to put Duncan on Gooden and use Oberto and Elson to use their quickness to bother Big Z. I think Elson will be especially useful in using his length, he is one of the few guys with arms long enough to really bother Ilgauskas. In the Utah series, however, it was Oberto who got the bulk of the minutes (31), while Elson languished on the bench. Pop has shown great aptitude at playing each of his center’s to their strengths, using them when the match up is most appropriate, thus I expect to see more of Elson this series, at least on defense (see below). Related to this is the question of Gooden, who has played significantly worse as the playoffs have gone on. Gooden netted only 9 ppg in the Pistons series, down from 14 in the Washington series. Even more important is the dip in rebounding, Gooden went from grabbing 10 a game in the first two rounds to just 5 in the Conference Finals. Its not like Duncan is going to make his life easier either, Timmy is, after all, one of the world’s best post defenders. However, if Duncan is forced to slide over and help on James’ penetrations, perhaps Gooden will get a few more open looks than he did with Wallace on him. Wallace was loath to slide over and help (explaining Lebron’s lay-up clinic in game 5), but the Spurs are going to want Duncan to help, giving Gooden a few open looks.
Should the Spurs run? YES! The Spurs are not known as a running team, but they are starting to get a reputation as a team that can play at any speed, shown most clearly in the Phoenix series this year. The Cavs defense absolutely smothers the pick and roll, as we saw against New Jersey, and I expect them to give Parker and Duncan trouble when they attempt to run the Spurs’ offense. In fact, with their combination of front court quickness and back court size, the Cavs are better equipped to deal with San Antiono’s pick and roll than any team not from Dallas. If their bread and butter isn’t their, how will the Spurs respond? How about going small, playing stretches with Parker, Manu, Bowen, Finley/Barry, and Duncan/Oberto, running the ball and forcing Cleveland to take one of their bigs off the floor? Parker and Ginobili form one of the best (and most underrated) running back courts in the game, and with Finley or Barry to spread the floor and Duncan and Oberto sprinting to finish long passes, the Spurs might want to do their Phoenix imitation in an effort to win the series.
All and all, I think Cleveland presents and interesting challenge for San Antonio, but the Spurs are playing as well as they ever have. Besides, San Antonio always wins in the odd years!
Spurs in 6
Friday, June 1, 2007
I'm a (reluctant) Witness
A full week without a real post, I apologize. A number of bullets about the Cavs/Pistons series, and later this weekend I’m going to want to discuss the sudden surge of interest in the San Antonio Spurs:
-Lebron James is good, very very good. Scoring 29 out of his team's last 30 points , 48 total, was no mean feat and he should be acknowledged for the offensive weapon that he is. Furthermore, he has completely undermined what I wrote about him after game 2 (“is Bron Bron playing offense like a super talented version of Eddie Jones?”). The level of difficulty on those types of shots were exactly the type of shots I accused him of not being able to convert. The ability is there, the domination is there, and I truly believe this young man has shifted into another gear during this series.
-People need to stop bashing Mike Brown as a crappy coach. 75% of coaching is not the adjustments you make in the game but the preparations you make before it. Mike Brown has a superstar who has the tools to be a good defender but often lapses and a largely immobile starting center, yet he has crafted a defensive juggernaut. He reminds me Jeff Van Gundy’s work with the Knicks in the early Alan Houston era, where he kept the Knicks defensively dominant as a team with a lineup that consisted of poor individual defenders. Mike Brown has demonstrated a immense strength in getting his team on the same page defensively, instilling the discipline needed for the team to take the Pistons machine off their offensive game. Is he poor at planning his timeouts? Yes. But this team is here largely because of the creative ways he has used his lineup. This is a team of role players, players who are good at one or two things. Brown has played to this identity, creating a team that is very good at two things (offensive rebounding and defense) and poor at everything else. Give Brown credit, he is about to take a mediocre squad to the NBA finals.
-Is Cleveland wins on Saturday, can we call it a 6 game sweep? Cleveland has outplayed Detroit in every single game, including games 1 and 2. That said, I cannot fathom Detroit not getting their game together somehow, they are too good to go out like this.
-Prince does not have the quickness to stay with Lebron. When James decided to stop taking jumpers and penetrate, Prince was going to need help. There were sequences where the Pistons went to either a zone or a hard double team at the top of the circle. Yet on the biggest play of the night, they opted for single coverage, and for some reason pulled away the help defense. Why? Flip Saunders is the opposite of Mike Brown. While Brown has created a strong man-to-man team out of spare parts, Saunders inherited one of the most talented collection of man-to-man defenders in the league and over two years has made them a team that needs a zone or a double to thrive. THEN, to compound the problem, he opts not to double when it is needed? I said this last year, and I will say it again now, Saunders is a terrible playoff coach. With the T-Wolves it took the intensity of Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell to get that team out of the first round, and he is about to lose to an inferior team yet again. He does not spark the Pistons the way that Larry Brown and Rick Carlisle did earlier in the decade. For the second year in a row the Pistons are fighting, there are divisions between coaching staff and roster, and the head coach is doing nothing to quell it. Win or lose, Saunders needs to be fired.
-I'd still take a healthy Wade over a healthy Lebron... as of right now, ask me again next spring.
-One last point. I’ve been bloggin for a bit over a month now. I’d love some feedback. If you are reading this, post a comment or two, lets get some discussions going!
EDIT: Took most of the afternoon, but I found someone who shares my feelings about Flip Saunders (http://mgoblog.blogspot.com/2007/06/flip-saunders-is-idiot.html). And while I'm pleading for people to offer comment, allow me to also ask someone, anyone, to teach this computer illiterate how to post a link. Thanks.
-Lebron James is good, very very good. Scoring 29 out of his team's last 30 points , 48 total, was no mean feat and he should be acknowledged for the offensive weapon that he is. Furthermore, he has completely undermined what I wrote about him after game 2 (“is Bron Bron playing offense like a super talented version of Eddie Jones?”). The level of difficulty on those types of shots were exactly the type of shots I accused him of not being able to convert. The ability is there, the domination is there, and I truly believe this young man has shifted into another gear during this series.
-People need to stop bashing Mike Brown as a crappy coach. 75% of coaching is not the adjustments you make in the game but the preparations you make before it. Mike Brown has a superstar who has the tools to be a good defender but often lapses and a largely immobile starting center, yet he has crafted a defensive juggernaut. He reminds me Jeff Van Gundy’s work with the Knicks in the early Alan Houston era, where he kept the Knicks defensively dominant as a team with a lineup that consisted of poor individual defenders. Mike Brown has demonstrated a immense strength in getting his team on the same page defensively, instilling the discipline needed for the team to take the Pistons machine off their offensive game. Is he poor at planning his timeouts? Yes. But this team is here largely because of the creative ways he has used his lineup. This is a team of role players, players who are good at one or two things. Brown has played to this identity, creating a team that is very good at two things (offensive rebounding and defense) and poor at everything else. Give Brown credit, he is about to take a mediocre squad to the NBA finals.
-Is Cleveland wins on Saturday, can we call it a 6 game sweep? Cleveland has outplayed Detroit in every single game, including games 1 and 2. That said, I cannot fathom Detroit not getting their game together somehow, they are too good to go out like this.
-Prince does not have the quickness to stay with Lebron. When James decided to stop taking jumpers and penetrate, Prince was going to need help. There were sequences where the Pistons went to either a zone or a hard double team at the top of the circle. Yet on the biggest play of the night, they opted for single coverage, and for some reason pulled away the help defense. Why? Flip Saunders is the opposite of Mike Brown. While Brown has created a strong man-to-man team out of spare parts, Saunders inherited one of the most talented collection of man-to-man defenders in the league and over two years has made them a team that needs a zone or a double to thrive. THEN, to compound the problem, he opts not to double when it is needed? I said this last year, and I will say it again now, Saunders is a terrible playoff coach. With the T-Wolves it took the intensity of Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell to get that team out of the first round, and he is about to lose to an inferior team yet again. He does not spark the Pistons the way that Larry Brown and Rick Carlisle did earlier in the decade. For the second year in a row the Pistons are fighting, there are divisions between coaching staff and roster, and the head coach is doing nothing to quell it. Win or lose, Saunders needs to be fired.
-I'd still take a healthy Wade over a healthy Lebron... as of right now, ask me again next spring.
-One last point. I’ve been bloggin for a bit over a month now. I’d love some feedback. If you are reading this, post a comment or two, lets get some discussions going!
EDIT: Took most of the afternoon, but I found someone who shares my feelings about Flip Saunders (http://mgoblog.blogspot.com/2007/06/flip-saunders-is-idiot.html). And while I'm pleading for people to offer comment, allow me to also ask someone, anyone, to teach this computer illiterate how to post a link. Thanks.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Pistons/Cavs Notes
-Is it possible that I have been completely mistaken about Cleveland? After two closely fought Cleveland losses, it appears as though Lebron James and his ragtag band of role players absolutely belongs on the NBA’s elite stage. Cleveland’s near success begins and ends with the play of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who is averaging seven offensive rebounds a game this series. He has been an absolute monster on offense as well, averaging 22 points, just under double his season average. His presence in the post opens up the floor for the Cavalier guards. While the Pistons limited him to three points on 1-6 shooting, he remained an impact player during his limited playing time.
-Lebron James did a much better job getting to the basket, playing another strong all around game. Still, he continues to struggle against longer defenders, showing a relative inability to create his own shot. Maybe the expectations are too high on this guy. The league slept on him last year and he exploded, now everyone has been able to adapt their defense to make his life harder. Is it just me, or is Bron Bron playing offense like a super talented version of Eddie Jones? Frankly, he has not shown the ability and the range to make the types of shots that define the careers of guys like Kobe Bryant and Gilbert Arenas.
-As a Tayshaun Prince fanatic, I am really disturbed by his 1-19 shooting performance (0-8 tonight). Clearly, Lebron’s size is bothering him. Prince is so skinny he is being bumped off cuts and really feeling the effects of the contact. If the Pistons can get out a series victory with their glue guy playing like this, they should consider themselves lucky.
-I love Jason Maxiell, and have for a while (http://basketball-insight.blogspot.com/2007/05/utah-ds-up-huh.html). He single handedly kept Detroit early on in their atrocious first half. I don’t care what scouts have to say, the NBA does have a place for undersized, athletic power forwards (see: Barkley, Charles).
-How talented is Rasheed Wallace? Really, how many off balance mid-range jumpers off the wrong foot does he have to hit before people realize that he is one of the best five big men of the past decade? He is a brilliant player, and I love the way that he and Chris Webber work together. My only issue? While he is a great defender off the ball, he needs to regain his strong post defense. Anderson Varejao is scoring seemingly at will. Let me repeat that, Anderson Varejao, the man with the footwork of a DIII center is scoring at will.
-On behalf of the staff here at Ballintellectual, I send my condolences to the city of Boston.
-Looking over the stats from the past two games, I see that Drew Gooden has been an absolute non factor. Shooting only six shots and netting 5 boards, he is a far cry from the 14/10 guy we saw in the Washington series. With Varejao carrying some of the load, it is easy to overlook Gooden's absense, but he gives them a presence in the high post with his mid-range jumper that Varejao doesn't. His lack of production is a major reason that Cleveland is having troubles with its offense.
-EDIT: This is what passes for analysis these days? After two games, all the media is talking about are two end of game plays involving Lebron. Should he have passed (game 1)? Was he fouled (game 2)? What about Rasheed Wallace’s pair of great games? The sudden offence coming from Varejao? Lebron’s defense on Tayshaun Prince? Rather than helping fans understand the forces dictating these games, we are given half assed discussion of two plays among many. Maybe fans wouldn’t be so turned off be defense if media outlets took the time to help them understand what’s involved. Just a thought.
-Lebron James did a much better job getting to the basket, playing another strong all around game. Still, he continues to struggle against longer defenders, showing a relative inability to create his own shot. Maybe the expectations are too high on this guy. The league slept on him last year and he exploded, now everyone has been able to adapt their defense to make his life harder. Is it just me, or is Bron Bron playing offense like a super talented version of Eddie Jones? Frankly, he has not shown the ability and the range to make the types of shots that define the careers of guys like Kobe Bryant and Gilbert Arenas.
-As a Tayshaun Prince fanatic, I am really disturbed by his 1-19 shooting performance (0-8 tonight). Clearly, Lebron’s size is bothering him. Prince is so skinny he is being bumped off cuts and really feeling the effects of the contact. If the Pistons can get out a series victory with their glue guy playing like this, they should consider themselves lucky.
-I love Jason Maxiell, and have for a while (http://basketball-insight.blogspot.com/2007/05/utah-ds-up-huh.html). He single handedly kept Detroit early on in their atrocious first half. I don’t care what scouts have to say, the NBA does have a place for undersized, athletic power forwards (see: Barkley, Charles).
-How talented is Rasheed Wallace? Really, how many off balance mid-range jumpers off the wrong foot does he have to hit before people realize that he is one of the best five big men of the past decade? He is a brilliant player, and I love the way that he and Chris Webber work together. My only issue? While he is a great defender off the ball, he needs to regain his strong post defense. Anderson Varejao is scoring seemingly at will. Let me repeat that, Anderson Varejao, the man with the footwork of a DIII center is scoring at will.
-On behalf of the staff here at Ballintellectual, I send my condolences to the city of Boston.
-Looking over the stats from the past two games, I see that Drew Gooden has been an absolute non factor. Shooting only six shots and netting 5 boards, he is a far cry from the 14/10 guy we saw in the Washington series. With Varejao carrying some of the load, it is easy to overlook Gooden's absense, but he gives them a presence in the high post with his mid-range jumper that Varejao doesn't. His lack of production is a major reason that Cleveland is having troubles with its offense.
-EDIT: This is what passes for analysis these days? After two games, all the media is talking about are two end of game plays involving Lebron. Should he have passed (game 1)? Was he fouled (game 2)? What about Rasheed Wallace’s pair of great games? The sudden offence coming from Varejao? Lebron’s defense on Tayshaun Prince? Rather than helping fans understand the forces dictating these games, we are given half assed discussion of two plays among many. Maybe fans wouldn’t be so turned off be defense if media outlets took the time to help them understand what’s involved. Just a thought.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
The Big Question? Really?
-ESPN’s Chris Sheridan questions whether Lebron should have passed up his drive with less than ten seconds left in Cleveland’s 2 point loss last night (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dailydime-070522). Would it be impossible for Lebron to get and1 against three players? No, its happened before. But lets face it, Prince was forcing him left, right into the waiting arms of Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton. You HAVE to pass that ball, Detroit’s entire zone was on the left side of the court. Zone-busting 101 tells you that the pass to the right corner or wing is the BEST pass to make. Lebron made exactly the right decision, but on a night when the Pistons took the king off his game, his teammates often let him down.
-Another Lebron-related observation. Bron Bron started on Prince. The Pistons immediately isolated Prince on the wing, utilizing Davis and Wallace to set hard down screens on the week side to open up Billups and Hamilton. Unable to use his size to disrupt Prince, the Detroit Forward was able to either make the right pass or take it strong to the basket (9 asts, 6-6 from the line). Kobe would have stopped that, Jordan would have stopped that, hell, Sasha Pavlovic even helped stop that, the Cavs moved him onto Prince by the second quarter. Lebron is not a good defender, on or off the ball. This makes Mike Brown even more of a defensive genius, he is playing 1st class defense and his best player is a 3rd class defender.
-Who has been the best player in these playoffs? Baron Davis, Tim Duncan, and Steve Nash all make good cases. Davis and Duncan have elevated their games (Duncan does this EVERY YEAR and NOBODY talks about him like he’s a big time player. When they need to be, his shots are better and his passes are crisper.) Lebron? Mediocre for much of the playoffs. Bryant didn’t last long enough. Detroit survives because each of its five starters is an MVP in his own right. The best player, however, was Jason Kidd, who ended his playoff run averaging a triple double for two series. New Jersey, playing with out center Nenad Krstic is NOT a great team. Since his injuries, Richard Jefferson got scared and became a jump shooter. Vince Carter has stretches (seemingly at the worst time) where he suddenly loses motivation and composure (been an issue his whole career). Jason Kidd RUNS that team. Not only in the way that Nash does. Nash runs everything by virtue of having the ball in his hands. What Kidd does as a pg is similar to Nash, but he does even more on defense, when the ball isn’t in his hand. His size and defensive craftiness are what make the Nets a GREAT defensive team. Lawrence Frank is due credit for imbuing most of the roster with a defensive-minded toughness, but Kidd is the only one of Jersey’s guards who has not only the mentality but the skill to be a wonderful defender. Carter is working harder on defense than he ever has before, and Jefferson does his best with limited mobility, but neither is known as an absolute great defender. Outside of Mikki Moore, can you cite anyone on that roster who lives to play defense? Only Jason Kidd. Lebron James is a player blessed with Kidd-esque court vision, great handle, and an even better size-quickness combo. Still, he often comes up short when he’s not scoring (not last night though, see above), fails to defend consistently, and cannot run the break in the way that his skills allow (though this is mostly the fault of his coach and the Cavs’ system). After watching Lebron last night, my mind couldn’t help but return to the fact that Kidd’s performance this spring has been among the best of all time. Factor in that he is single handedly denying critics who call him too slow and old, and you have what could have been a GREAT story in rounds one and two. The NBA, ESPN, and other media outlets really dropped the ball in not covering Kidd more closely. I’m praying that New Jersey surrounds Kidd some more consistent shooters, a big man finisher (Krstic can fill this roll in a year or two), and some better perimeter defense, because Kidd deserves a legitimate shot at a title, and his time is running out.
-Another Lebron-related observation. Bron Bron started on Prince. The Pistons immediately isolated Prince on the wing, utilizing Davis and Wallace to set hard down screens on the week side to open up Billups and Hamilton. Unable to use his size to disrupt Prince, the Detroit Forward was able to either make the right pass or take it strong to the basket (9 asts, 6-6 from the line). Kobe would have stopped that, Jordan would have stopped that, hell, Sasha Pavlovic even helped stop that, the Cavs moved him onto Prince by the second quarter. Lebron is not a good defender, on or off the ball. This makes Mike Brown even more of a defensive genius, he is playing 1st class defense and his best player is a 3rd class defender.
-Who has been the best player in these playoffs? Baron Davis, Tim Duncan, and Steve Nash all make good cases. Davis and Duncan have elevated their games (Duncan does this EVERY YEAR and NOBODY talks about him like he’s a big time player. When they need to be, his shots are better and his passes are crisper.) Lebron? Mediocre for much of the playoffs. Bryant didn’t last long enough. Detroit survives because each of its five starters is an MVP in his own right. The best player, however, was Jason Kidd, who ended his playoff run averaging a triple double for two series. New Jersey, playing with out center Nenad Krstic is NOT a great team. Since his injuries, Richard Jefferson got scared and became a jump shooter. Vince Carter has stretches (seemingly at the worst time) where he suddenly loses motivation and composure (been an issue his whole career). Jason Kidd RUNS that team. Not only in the way that Nash does. Nash runs everything by virtue of having the ball in his hands. What Kidd does as a pg is similar to Nash, but he does even more on defense, when the ball isn’t in his hand. His size and defensive craftiness are what make the Nets a GREAT defensive team. Lawrence Frank is due credit for imbuing most of the roster with a defensive-minded toughness, but Kidd is the only one of Jersey’s guards who has not only the mentality but the skill to be a wonderful defender. Carter is working harder on defense than he ever has before, and Jefferson does his best with limited mobility, but neither is known as an absolute great defender. Outside of Mikki Moore, can you cite anyone on that roster who lives to play defense? Only Jason Kidd. Lebron James is a player blessed with Kidd-esque court vision, great handle, and an even better size-quickness combo. Still, he often comes up short when he’s not scoring (not last night though, see above), fails to defend consistently, and cannot run the break in the way that his skills allow (though this is mostly the fault of his coach and the Cavs’ system). After watching Lebron last night, my mind couldn’t help but return to the fact that Kidd’s performance this spring has been among the best of all time. Factor in that he is single handedly denying critics who call him too slow and old, and you have what could have been a GREAT story in rounds one and two. The NBA, ESPN, and other media outlets really dropped the ball in not covering Kidd more closely. I’m praying that New Jersey surrounds Kidd some more consistent shooters, a big man finisher (Krstic can fill this roll in a year or two), and some better perimeter defense, because Kidd deserves a legitimate shot at a title, and his time is running out.
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Detroit vs. Cleveland
Much has happened in the NBA world since my last post, and it certainly appears as though most of America has written off the rest of the playoffs as a farce… which seems to happen every time the Spurs win the title. In the East, the conference finals feature a Detroit team that appears neigh unbeatable (aside from 5 halves in which they forgot how to play basketball). The ‘Stones face off against a coasting Cavs team. During their widely unappreciated series with New Jersey, the Cavs showed stretches where they played some of the best man-to-man defense I’ve seen all year. They remind me of the ’04 Pistons in their great ability to absolutely smother the pick and roll (the similarities stop there). During the regular season, the Pistons walked away with the series, winning three to the Cavs one. The Cavaliers only victory was a closely fought overtime contest in Detroit. It is going to be interesting how the Pistons play James, especially considering that he is the only player on that team who can hurt them. If they go to man, I don’t think any of the Pistons match up well with Bron Bron. Prince might hurt him with his length and quickness, but if Lebron mixes up his game and takes Prince into the post he might create havoc. I fully expect the Pistons to go zone, utilizing Prince in the middle to force James to stay on one side of the floor. On the other end, the Pistons are better equipped to match up with Cleveland’s man-to-man than anyone. Detroit has players able to score at all five positions and they move the ball well enough that each of those five can get looks. Detroit’s strength on offense is that it starts three of the best playmakers in the game (Billups of course, Webber, and the underrated passer, Rasheed Wallace). Last year, Cleveland (and Miami) was able to play off Ben Wallace, but they can’t do that with Webber. If any of Detroit’s players get doubled, they not only have plenty of options of where to pass, they have the ability and desire to make that good pass.
I’d like to call this a sweep in the Pistons’ favor, but time and again, Detroit has displayed a propensity to let down after a amassing a lead in a series. Though they are better than I expected, I still see remnants of the ‘flip-the-switch’ mentality that killed the Pistons last year, and often did them in the regular season this year. Still, if they drop more than one against Cleveland, I will be very surprised. Thus, I pick…
Detroit in 5
I’d like to call this a sweep in the Pistons’ favor, but time and again, Detroit has displayed a propensity to let down after a amassing a lead in a series. Though they are better than I expected, I still see remnants of the ‘flip-the-switch’ mentality that killed the Pistons last year, and often did them in the regular season this year. Still, if they drop more than one against Cleveland, I will be very surprised. Thus, I pick…
Detroit in 5
Saturday, May 5, 2007
New Jersey/Cleveland
Though Detroit/Chicago will rightly be in the spotlight, the 2/6 match up between the Cavs and Nets will be a good one to watch as well. During the regular season, Cleveland took two out of three from New Jersey, with the home team winning each. The last game was a bit of a blowout, Cleveland took it by 18. My gut tells me that the Nets, with the way they have been playing, will take this series, but the stats tell another tale. Cleveland’s box score from the three games against the Nets reads like a normal Cavs game; nothing New Jersey did took Cleveland off its game. The numbers for both teams are close, and no one Cleveland player did significantly better or worse than normal. New Jersey, however, should be concerned if the season box is anything to go by. While Carter has been great against the Cavs, netting 27 a game on 53% shooting (50% from 3), the other two members of the big three haven’t done nearly as well. Kidd got 9 points a game against them, though this isn’t that concerning considering his 9 boards, 8 assists, and the fact that he’s playing at another level anyway. More concerning is Jefferson who is shooting 35% en route to 12 points a game. Clearly, Hughes has been doing his job on Jefferson. New Jersey is also averaging 18 turnovers against a stingy Cav defense, a far cry from the 14 New Jersey gets on a regular basis. If Richardson cannot find a way to pick up his shooting, the Nets will have very few options for spreading out the defense, allowing the Cavs to pack it inside to keep Kidd and Carter out of the paint. This one will be close, but I’m going to go with Cleveland.
Cavaliers in 6
Cavaliers in 6
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Eastern Confrence Playoff Predictions
First round:
1. Detroit vs. 8. Orlando
Pistons in 5
Orlando wins my award for most disappointing team in the NBA. Now they find themselves in a no win situation against the Pistons. Detroit won the season series 4-0, and I see very little reason for them not to sweep. The only thing that might hurt the Pistons is their tendency to play down to the competition. Hopefully this will subside come playoff time, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they come out flat and allow the Magic to steal a game. Look for Howard to have a big series no matter the outcome; he averaged 21 and 14 against Detroit during the regular season
2. Cleveland vs. 7. Washington
Cleveland in 4
This was the rematch everyone wanted, but unfortunately for fans world wide, the Wizards just don’t have the weapons to get it done. This was the only match up that I didn’t look at the numbers for. That said, I expect some of the games to be close. Washington has been playing some good ball since Arenas went down, losing five of their games in April by less than 10 points. Antonio Daniels and Deshawn Stevenson have been playing good ball and will do their best to keep it close. In the end, Washington just doesn’t have the weapons to get the job done.
3. Toronto vs. 6. New Jersey
Toronto in 6
Home court means everything in this match up. During the regular season, the home team won every game, with Carter being fairly terrible in both games in Toronto. He shot a combined 9-32 in the two games in Toronto, though he was good for ten assists in the second one. New Jersey has been playing some very good ball lately, but I think Toronto makes for some match up problems. While Chris Bosh has struggled a bit against the Nets’ front line (17 and 7), I don’t think Jason Kidd has the speed to keep up with Ford in a 7 game series. Toronto has the ability to push the tempo, and while New Jersey is a good running team in general, Carter’s game is better suited for the half court.
EDIT: I'm very surprised that most of the online sports world disagrees with me here.
4. Miami vs. 5. Chicago (Chicago has home court)
Chicago in 7
The biggest loser tonight, other than Chicago (who dropped from 2 to 5), was Miami. I think Miami matches up much better against Cleveland, they would have won that series. Chicago has the best low post defense in the East, and they will do a very good job on Shaq. The only game the Bulls lost this season was an utter blow out (103-70) in which they had 20 turnovers and shot 35%. This will not happen night in and night out. Wade is Wade, and will be good for a few wins, but I still think Chicago is the hottest team in the East and will be too tough for this very good Miami team.
EDIT: I am not surprised that the majority of the online sports world disagrees with me here.
Second Round:
1. Detroit vs. 5. Chicago: Detroit in 7
(I should say that I still believe that this series could go either way. I give it to Detroit simply because Chicago will be comming off a much more difficult series and Detroit is better equiped to go a full 7 games.)
2. Cleveland vs. 3. Toronto: Cleveland in 6
Finals: 1. Detroit vs. 2. Cleveland: Detroit in 7
These are my predictions as I see them. When the first round ends, I'll revaluate these and provide full analysis for the second round.
1. Detroit vs. 8. Orlando
Pistons in 5
Orlando wins my award for most disappointing team in the NBA. Now they find themselves in a no win situation against the Pistons. Detroit won the season series 4-0, and I see very little reason for them not to sweep. The only thing that might hurt the Pistons is their tendency to play down to the competition. Hopefully this will subside come playoff time, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they come out flat and allow the Magic to steal a game. Look for Howard to have a big series no matter the outcome; he averaged 21 and 14 against Detroit during the regular season
2. Cleveland vs. 7. Washington
Cleveland in 4
This was the rematch everyone wanted, but unfortunately for fans world wide, the Wizards just don’t have the weapons to get it done. This was the only match up that I didn’t look at the numbers for. That said, I expect some of the games to be close. Washington has been playing some good ball since Arenas went down, losing five of their games in April by less than 10 points. Antonio Daniels and Deshawn Stevenson have been playing good ball and will do their best to keep it close. In the end, Washington just doesn’t have the weapons to get the job done.
3. Toronto vs. 6. New Jersey
Toronto in 6
Home court means everything in this match up. During the regular season, the home team won every game, with Carter being fairly terrible in both games in Toronto. He shot a combined 9-32 in the two games in Toronto, though he was good for ten assists in the second one. New Jersey has been playing some very good ball lately, but I think Toronto makes for some match up problems. While Chris Bosh has struggled a bit against the Nets’ front line (17 and 7), I don’t think Jason Kidd has the speed to keep up with Ford in a 7 game series. Toronto has the ability to push the tempo, and while New Jersey is a good running team in general, Carter’s game is better suited for the half court.
EDIT: I'm very surprised that most of the online sports world disagrees with me here.
4. Miami vs. 5. Chicago (Chicago has home court)
Chicago in 7
The biggest loser tonight, other than Chicago (who dropped from 2 to 5), was Miami. I think Miami matches up much better against Cleveland, they would have won that series. Chicago has the best low post defense in the East, and they will do a very good job on Shaq. The only game the Bulls lost this season was an utter blow out (103-70) in which they had 20 turnovers and shot 35%. This will not happen night in and night out. Wade is Wade, and will be good for a few wins, but I still think Chicago is the hottest team in the East and will be too tough for this very good Miami team.
EDIT: I am not surprised that the majority of the online sports world disagrees with me here.
Second Round:
1. Detroit vs. 5. Chicago: Detroit in 7
(I should say that I still believe that this series could go either way. I give it to Detroit simply because Chicago will be comming off a much more difficult series and Detroit is better equiped to go a full 7 games.)
2. Cleveland vs. 3. Toronto: Cleveland in 6
Finals: 1. Detroit vs. 2. Cleveland: Detroit in 7
These are my predictions as I see them. When the first round ends, I'll revaluate these and provide full analysis for the second round.
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