60 Point Halves, Parity, and More

Didn't get to watch the Bulls or the Nets roll tonite (my housemates outvoted me in favor of watching Redsox/Yankees), and its a shame. I am now officially in awe of Jason Kidd, despite multiple knee surgeries and despite me losing faith in his durability, he is showing that he deserves to be mentioned as one of the best clutch players of all time (in addition to being among the top 10 point guards of all time and the top 2 transition point guards of all time). The Nets are playing out of their minds right now, and if they can close out the Raptors, I think they stand a good chance of 'upsetting' the overrated (and overseeded) Cavs.

I now regret claiming that the Heat would take the Bulls to seven games, its as if I bought into the Heat hype as much as everyone else. Still, I reiterate, this Heat team is just not very good.

Meanwhile, we are about to enter the fourth quarter of a Golden State route. A few observations:
-Rarely have I seen a good, right handed, seven footer look as lost in low post as Dirk does right now. He's not doing too badly (7/15 shooting right now), but Stephen Jackson and the rest of the Warriors have done a terrific job keeping out of the middle of the floor where he is most deadly, forcing him to either low post where it is more difficult to get off a shot. I wonder why more teams haven't utilized such a tactic over the course of the season.

-After every made basket in the first half (where they scored 60) the Warriors, if undetered by full court pressure, throw a long pass to around midcourt. They break on plays were they don't even have numbers. For every moment of every game, all five players on the court are thinking three things: 'run, run, and run some more.'

-The Warriors are not a good defensive team personell wise, but they are a smart team defensivly, defending Nowitzki effectivly and taking the Mavs out of their desired offensive schemes.

-I, like the good folks at ESPN, am starting to think upset, and what that would mean for this Mavs team. I'm pretty sure the only thing more dissapointing than losing a 2-0 finals lead is to be the best team in the regular season, only to have it all unravel in the first round. Furthermore, think about what would happen if both the Heat and Mavs lose in the first round. I can't remember the last time both confrences were without their champions in round two (the last champion to keep its team intact and lose in round one were the 99-00 Spurs who were without Tim Duncan). This speaks volumes about the level of parity attained by the NBA in the past decade. Between 1989 and 2002, only five teams won titles, with the Bulls taking six, the Lakers taking three, the Pistons and Rockets taking two each, and the Spurs taking one. Yet, in the years from 2003 to today, we have already seen three teams win titles, with only the Spurs taking more than one. I think that this is great. If the Mavs get eliminated, that leaves, I think, five teams with realistic shots at winning the title (Spurs, Pistons, Bulls, Suns, Rockets). I love it, I love that you can't pick a champion for sure, you really get the sense that anyone can win.

-Finally, Jason Richardson does more than jump high, his shot is deadly, keeping defenses honest. And with his athleticism and explosivness, he is capable of getting to the rim on drives. Baron Davis is the best player on this Warriors team, but Richardson has gone from being a mindless scorers to a perfect fit for a well oiled Warriors machine.

Eastern Confrence Playoff Predictions

First round:

1. Detroit vs. 8. Orlando
Pistons in 5
Orlando wins my award for most disappointing team in the NBA. Now they find themselves in a no win situation against the Pistons. Detroit won the season series 4-0, and I see very little reason for them not to sweep. The only thing that might hurt the Pistons is their tendency to play down to the competition. Hopefully this will subside come playoff time, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they come out flat and allow the Magic to steal a game. Look for Howard to have a big series no matter the outcome; he averaged 21 and 14 against Detroit during the regular season


2. Cleveland vs. 7. Washington
Cleveland in 4
This was the rematch everyone wanted, but unfortunately for fans world wide, the Wizards just don’t have the weapons to get it done. This was the only match up that I didn’t look at the numbers for. That said, I expect some of the games to be close. Washington has been playing some good ball since Arenas went down, losing five of their games in April by less than 10 points. Antonio Daniels and Deshawn Stevenson have been playing good ball and will do their best to keep it close. In the end, Washington just doesn’t have the weapons to get the job done.

3. Toronto vs. 6. New Jersey
Toronto in 6
Home court means everything in this match up. During the regular season, the home team won every game, with Carter being fairly terrible in both games in Toronto. He shot a combined 9-32 in the two games in Toronto, though he was good for ten assists in the second one. New Jersey has been playing some very good ball lately, but I think Toronto makes for some match up problems. While Chris Bosh has struggled a bit against the Nets’ front line (17 and 7), I don’t think Jason Kidd has the speed to keep up with Ford in a 7 game series. Toronto has the ability to push the tempo, and while New Jersey is a good running team in general, Carter’s game is better suited for the half court.
EDIT: I'm very surprised that most of the online sports world disagrees with me here.

4. Miami vs. 5. Chicago (Chicago has home court)
Chicago in 7
The biggest loser tonight, other than Chicago (who dropped from 2 to 5), was Miami. I think Miami matches up much better against Cleveland, they would have won that series. Chicago has the best low post defense in the East, and they will do a very good job on Shaq. The only game the Bulls lost this season was an utter blow out (103-70) in which they had 20 turnovers and shot 35%. This will not happen night in and night out. Wade is Wade, and will be good for a few wins, but I still think Chicago is the hottest team in the East and will be too tough for this very good Miami team.
EDIT: I am not surprised that the majority of the online sports world disagrees with me here.

Second Round:
1. Detroit vs. 5. Chicago: Detroit in 7
(I should say that I still believe that this series could go either way. I give it to Detroit simply because Chicago will be comming off a much more difficult series and Detroit is better equiped to go a full 7 games.)

2. Cleveland vs. 3. Toronto: Cleveland in 6

Finals: 1. Detroit vs. 2. Cleveland: Detroit in 7


These are my predictions as I see them. When the first round ends, I'll revaluate these and provide full analysis for the second round.

Why I'm psyched for the eastern confrence playoffs

We're not talking about the Knicks game tonite beyond saying this, in the last two games I've seen them play, against the Nets and then tonite, Chicago is playing like a team on a mission. I cannot say the same thing, right now, about the Pistons.

The way things are in the East today, the Pistons would play Miami in round two, with Miami at the four seed and Chicago at the two seed. Meanwhile, on the other side of the bracket would be Chicago and Toronto. If these are indeed the two second round series, I think NBA fans are in for a treat. Right now, I would have to say that Chicago is playing the best ball in the conference. That said, however, I think the conference is the Pistons' to lose. Still, would anyone be surprised if Miami made it right back to the finals? I doubt it. But what about Toronto? I picked this team to win the Atlantic in the pre-season, but I had no clue that Chris Bosh and his European teammates would come along so quickly. So fans would be flipping between a rematch of last year's semi-finals, in which the Heat would face their biggest test of the season (was the Shaq-inspired run a fluke? Is Wade going to rejoin the team in good enough shape to run with the stones?), and seeing big man Bosh taking on the best low post defense in the league.

In other words, ladies and gentlemen, we are positioned right now for the best East second round since 2001 (remember that Bucks/Hornets series? That was a great seven game match, surpassed only by Iverson and Carter's personal game of 'can you top this' in that 76ers/Raptors match).

As good as last year's tourney was, I'm starting to get really excited for the next couple of months.


By the way, if I had to pick, it would be Detroit and Chicago battling in a series that might be the best of them all...