-Playing the Empire’s theme from Star Wars when the Spurs were introduced? Brilliant. You could tell some of the Spurs were having trouble keeping a straight face… Matt Bonner just broke up laughing.
-The Cavs tried to be classy with the benching of Larry Hughes, instead it came off as disingenuous. By claiming that the lineup change was due entirely to Hughes’ decision, they forced it to make it seem like his foot was worse than it was. Now he can’t play, he’s stuck in a suit. I think all parties would have been happier if the Cavs had been up front about the necessary lineup change, they could have utilized Hughes for a few minutes here and there, which he is definitely good for.
-Other than the fact that Gibson is actually starting, the biggest defensive change for the Cavs is that Gibson seems to be going over screens while guarding Parker. Now, traditioanlly, you go over screens on jump shooters and under on players looking to penetrate, going under usually gives a better angle to cut off the dribble. However, the Cavs are looking to trap off the pick and roll, and by sending Gibson over the screens they allow the trap to come more quickly. However, they are also making Gibson work harder, and setting themselves up for a couple of hand-check calls.
-Its midway into the first and the Cavs are doing a much better job on the glass, especially on the offensive end. This is the one area where they have the advantage over San Antonio and if they can keep it up they have a chance to win. Offensive rebounds give the Cavs extra possessions, every rebound represents another chance to get a good shot. Because the Spurs are so great at forcing teams into missed shots, the Cavs need all the chances they can get. The ability to get offensive rebounds is always important for the Cavs, its all the more important against a team like the Spurs
-If Tony Parker wins Finals MVP, are we going to be subjected to a David Stern speech about how this truly signifies the international, global nature of the NBA? Ten bucks says we will be. At least its better than his various verbal hand jobs to Michael Jordan during the 1997-1998 season.
-This game is playing right into the Cavs’s hands. A forty point half for both teams? What more could they ask for? Unfortunately, the Spurs might just be the best slow tempo team in the league (it just happens that they can play fast too). Still, the Cavs are outplaying San Antonio on both ends, the Spurs need to get it together because the Cavs are more than capable of stealing this game away from them.
-Bruce Bowen makes for a good interview. Its too bad he gets such a bad rep for his style of play. But, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, all great on-ball defenders utilize tricks and play ‘dirty’ sometimes. Jordan did it, Kobe does it, I do it… the list goes on.
-Wow, I didn't update once in the second half, I was just that riveted. Truth be told, other than the finish, which was fun, this was pretty crappy basketball. The Cavs played fairly well at times, but their offense is just so stagnant you wouldn’t notices. Meanwhile the Spurs didn’t help out the game’s aesthetic quality by playing down to the level of competition. I’d rather watch one team play well in a blow out than this, does anyone not agree?
-Terrible no-call at the end there. It didn’t exactly cost the Cavs the game, but there’s a possibility it might have (Van Gundy says James would have gotten the continuation but I just can’t imagine that). People are going to be talking about this for days, and it will only take away from the Spurs’ eventual victory.
-Can we just forgo handing out MVP? After a game like this who deserves it?
-Props to the Cavs front line tonight for the job the did on Duncan and on help defense in general. Bigger props to Sasha Pavlovich for his amazing job on Manu tonight. If the Cavs have a future, it will be through his development as the Pippen to Lebron’s Jordan (and to Varejao’s Horace Grant). Mark my words, if this team is contending in 4 years its because these two international players have lived up to their talent.
Showing posts with label San Antonio Spurs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label San Antonio Spurs. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Sunday, June 10, 2007
What more can I say
-It’s a funny thing, half way through the game I thought to myself, I really had it wrong the other day talking about a typical Spurs blowout, the deficit was just too high. And then, it happens again! If you're a Cavs fan you walk away saying "see! We can run with these guys!" If you're a Spurs fan you walk away saying, "We were never not in control of this game, comeback or no!" If you are the rest of the NBA you wonder whether this was really control or whether this was a borderline collapse.
-Another thing I take away from this game is how important it is to have a big man who could pass. For all his size and athleticism, one of the most important element of Shaq’s game is that he has great hands and hit almost anyone, anywhere on the floor. As cool as it is to make an on-target ally-oop pass from half court, it is equally difficult to make a skip pass out of a double team. It is not enough to take a dominant post player and surround him with perimeter scorers, that big man needs to be able to pass. One of the reasons the Knicks never took it to the championship level in the 1990s was that Patrick Ewing is not a phenomenal passer (though he is certainly better than Eddie Curry). Duncan, like Shaq, is vastly underrated in his ability to see the double team coming, and make the appropriate pass. He certainly showed it tonight, racking up 8 assists. His passing ability allows the entire offense to run through him without worry of bad shot or turnover. Think about how great of an asset it is to be able to initiate your offense from the post area as opposed to from beyond the arc. Instad of having to go outside in, everything becomes inside out, allowing for more threes and more dump passes to guys cutting through the lane. Without big man passing, the Spurs would not be leading the NBA in 3 pointers this post-season.
-James really responded tonight, finishing with 25-6-7 in just 38 minutes of game time. Does this mean that he has ‘figured out’ everything Bowen and the Spurs are going to throw at him? No. But I like the fact that he could pick out the defensive weaknesses mid series, by the end of the career he will be able to do this mid game.
-Anderson Varejao just amazes me with his constant effort. He is not exactly intimidating built, yet he is supremely effective in pushing and shoving his way into rebounding position. He is also becoming adept at sliding over to contest everything. His weakness? Speed. Duncan just constantly blazed by him off the dribble (‘blazed by’ is not a phrase often associated with Timmy).
-Clearly, my call before the series to give Elson some more minutes went unheralded. He had 3 fouls in 13 minutes. Still, he netted 3 boards and shot 3-3, not a terrible outing. I really like this man’s game, he is a great backup center, and a wonderful third string center (which is how the Spurs play him).
-Jacque Vaughn and Eric Snow need to have a fight to the death for who is the most offensively challenged point in the league.
-Ladies and gentleman, we had a Beno Udrih sighting! After having a fairly good ’05 post season, Udrih was completely thrown under the bus, and is clearly at odds with Pop. He’s a talented young guy though, I hope they trade him to somewhere he can develop a bit more.
-Another thing I take away from this game is how important it is to have a big man who could pass. For all his size and athleticism, one of the most important element of Shaq’s game is that he has great hands and hit almost anyone, anywhere on the floor. As cool as it is to make an on-target ally-oop pass from half court, it is equally difficult to make a skip pass out of a double team. It is not enough to take a dominant post player and surround him with perimeter scorers, that big man needs to be able to pass. One of the reasons the Knicks never took it to the championship level in the 1990s was that Patrick Ewing is not a phenomenal passer (though he is certainly better than Eddie Curry). Duncan, like Shaq, is vastly underrated in his ability to see the double team coming, and make the appropriate pass. He certainly showed it tonight, racking up 8 assists. His passing ability allows the entire offense to run through him without worry of bad shot or turnover. Think about how great of an asset it is to be able to initiate your offense from the post area as opposed to from beyond the arc. Instad of having to go outside in, everything becomes inside out, allowing for more threes and more dump passes to guys cutting through the lane. Without big man passing, the Spurs would not be leading the NBA in 3 pointers this post-season.
-James really responded tonight, finishing with 25-6-7 in just 38 minutes of game time. Does this mean that he has ‘figured out’ everything Bowen and the Spurs are going to throw at him? No. But I like the fact that he could pick out the defensive weaknesses mid series, by the end of the career he will be able to do this mid game.
-Anderson Varejao just amazes me with his constant effort. He is not exactly intimidating built, yet he is supremely effective in pushing and shoving his way into rebounding position. He is also becoming adept at sliding over to contest everything. His weakness? Speed. Duncan just constantly blazed by him off the dribble (‘blazed by’ is not a phrase often associated with Timmy).
-Clearly, my call before the series to give Elson some more minutes went unheralded. He had 3 fouls in 13 minutes. Still, he netted 3 boards and shot 3-3, not a terrible outing. I really like this man’s game, he is a great backup center, and a wonderful third string center (which is how the Spurs play him).
-Jacque Vaughn and Eric Snow need to have a fight to the death for who is the most offensively challenged point in the league.
-Ladies and gentleman, we had a Beno Udrih sighting! After having a fairly good ’05 post season, Udrih was completely thrown under the bus, and is clearly at odds with Pop. He’s a talented young guy though, I hope they trade him to somewhere he can develop a bit more.
What's Gotten into Robert Horry (and other first half observations)
Game Two is half over, and the Cavs have about half the Spurs score. Of course, I didn't expect the game to be anything like this, but the way the Spurs are playing is exactly what they did in game 1 and the rest of the playoffs (but better). So there's really not much worth noting, its all just a day at the River Walk. First of all, what the hell is wrong with Robert Horry? He's not supposed to come on until the game's waning minutes, yet he has played phenomenally, with three blocks, and a whole bunch of boards.
-Tony Parker is just waltzing into the lane. What is wrong with the Cavs' front line? Where is Drew Gooden's help defense? I join Jeff Van Gundy in being absolutely blown away by the Cavs' ineptitude.
-When he airballed the FT, I really thought that Bowen had just broken Lebron James. Clearly, I was wrong. He is still not playing well, but he has forced himself back into this game. The emphatic dunk and the string of good hard drives show that this young man is not as easily daunted as I thought.
-Harvey Araton had a nice piece in the New York Times today where he asks whether the Spurs would have the same reputation if they played in New York. He certainly has a point. The Bulls were predictable, running their offence through a single player. The Lakers of the 2000s were predictable, running a bunch of plays that involved only two players. The NBA is a part of the entertainment business, and reputation is a facade. Nothing about the Spurs reputation has anything to do with what they actually do on the court. I just posted at length about this at Five Tool Tool. EDIT: True Hoop has some more on the same issue (and cites the same article). It seems that this season has seen a growing amount of voices calling for more Spur appreciation. Lets see how they are depicted next season (I expect the league and the fans to embrace the 'bad guy' persona, booing the Spurs in every arena).
-Tony Parker is just waltzing into the lane. What is wrong with the Cavs' front line? Where is Drew Gooden's help defense? I join Jeff Van Gundy in being absolutely blown away by the Cavs' ineptitude.
-When he airballed the FT, I really thought that Bowen had just broken Lebron James. Clearly, I was wrong. He is still not playing well, but he has forced himself back into this game. The emphatic dunk and the string of good hard drives show that this young man is not as easily daunted as I thought.
-Harvey Araton had a nice piece in the New York Times today where he asks whether the Spurs would have the same reputation if they played in New York. He certainly has a point. The Bulls were predictable, running their offence through a single player. The Lakers of the 2000s were predictable, running a bunch of plays that involved only two players. The NBA is a part of the entertainment business, and reputation is a facade. Nothing about the Spurs reputation has anything to do with what they actually do on the court. I just posted at length about this at Five Tool Tool. EDIT: True Hoop has some more on the same issue (and cites the same article). It seems that this season has seen a growing amount of voices calling for more Spur appreciation. Lets see how they are depicted next season (I expect the league and the fans to embrace the 'bad guy' persona, booing the Spurs in every arena).
Saturday, June 9, 2007
Things to Look for in Game 2
First of all, thanks to Jerusalem Joe for showing me how to do this
EDIT: Got It!!
Game one went exactly the way I figured it would the other night. It was a typical Spurs blowout, where they go up big to enter the fourth and then allow the lead to dwindle in the name of energy conservation. Seriously, the Spurs have invented a new type of domination, one where the final score doesn’t show the sheer depth of command the Spurs had over the game. Consider: Most would acknowledge that the Spurs have played dominant basketball this post season, yet of their 13 wins, only three were double figure victories. In game five in the Denver series the Spurs closed out by 15, leaving no doubt that they belonged in the second round. In games 4&5 against Utah, the Spurs had something to prove after they were drubbed by 26, so they won by 12 and 25. However, this is not to say that the Spurs were playing in close games all the way, only three of their games were won by two possession or less (and only game 5 in Phoenix was a one possession game by the end, the Spurs won by three). Other than those six games, the Spurs have won two games by seven points, two by eight points, and three games by nine. What this tells me is that they are proficient at knowing exactly how much of their lead they have to protect to ensure the win. A stat I’d like to see is the amount the Spurs have led after three quarters, but I haven’t been able to find it on either ESPN, 82games.com or basketball-reference.com (my sources for most statistics). Still, from the games I’ve seen, it always seems like the Spurs are up more at the end of the third than at the end of the fourth. Usually, it seems that they lose some of the lead in the fourth quarter (like in Game 1 of the Finals), but apply the breaks on the other team just enough to make sure they always keep the game out of reach. Of course, it is possible to interpret this as a team that easily gives up 4th quarter leads, but the Spurs always win these games, and seem to do it in a way that never makes the outcome in doubt.
A couple of things I’ll be looking forward to seeing in game 2:
How is Lebron going to adjust to the Spurs coverage? You know he will, but you also have to think that Popovich has other defensive schemes he’s going to be using. I hope to see a bit of a chess match between Bron Bron and the Spurs’ gurus on the bench.
I know Mike Brown has made it clear that Larry Hughes is his starting pg, but I cannot fathom him not giving Gibson more minutes. I want to see what Gibson does with these minutes and whether the Spurs have enough to put the clamps on him too.
Another Hughes related note. At this point, it is clear the Lebron is out defending Larry. Brown had some success when he stuck Lebron on Tony Parker and hid Hughes in the corner guarding Bruce Bowen. Clearly, with Hughes hobbling, this was a nice band aid in game one to stop some of the bleeding, but I don’t have faith that Lebron can effectively guard Tony for the rest of the series and keep up his energy on the offensive end. Who is Mike Brown going to go to that has the lateral quickness to keep up with Parker. Might we have another Eric Snow sighting?
Big Z is not going to score two points again. The question is, will he get enough help from the perimeter to keep the Spurs from camping out around him?
All in all, game two should be fascinating; I expect a bunch of adjustments from the Cavs and some interesting countermoves from San Antonio.
EDIT: Got It!!
Game one went exactly the way I figured it would the other night. It was a typical Spurs blowout, where they go up big to enter the fourth and then allow the lead to dwindle in the name of energy conservation. Seriously, the Spurs have invented a new type of domination, one where the final score doesn’t show the sheer depth of command the Spurs had over the game. Consider: Most would acknowledge that the Spurs have played dominant basketball this post season, yet of their 13 wins, only three were double figure victories. In game five in the Denver series the Spurs closed out by 15, leaving no doubt that they belonged in the second round. In games 4&5 against Utah, the Spurs had something to prove after they were drubbed by 26, so they won by 12 and 25. However, this is not to say that the Spurs were playing in close games all the way, only three of their games were won by two possession or less (and only game 5 in Phoenix was a one possession game by the end, the Spurs won by three). Other than those six games, the Spurs have won two games by seven points, two by eight points, and three games by nine. What this tells me is that they are proficient at knowing exactly how much of their lead they have to protect to ensure the win. A stat I’d like to see is the amount the Spurs have led after three quarters, but I haven’t been able to find it on either ESPN, 82games.com or basketball-reference.com (my sources for most statistics). Still, from the games I’ve seen, it always seems like the Spurs are up more at the end of the third than at the end of the fourth. Usually, it seems that they lose some of the lead in the fourth quarter (like in Game 1 of the Finals), but apply the breaks on the other team just enough to make sure they always keep the game out of reach. Of course, it is possible to interpret this as a team that easily gives up 4th quarter leads, but the Spurs always win these games, and seem to do it in a way that never makes the outcome in doubt.
A couple of things I’ll be looking forward to seeing in game 2:
How is Lebron going to adjust to the Spurs coverage? You know he will, but you also have to think that Popovich has other defensive schemes he’s going to be using. I hope to see a bit of a chess match between Bron Bron and the Spurs’ gurus on the bench.
I know Mike Brown has made it clear that Larry Hughes is his starting pg, but I cannot fathom him not giving Gibson more minutes. I want to see what Gibson does with these minutes and whether the Spurs have enough to put the clamps on him too.
Another Hughes related note. At this point, it is clear the Lebron is out defending Larry. Brown had some success when he stuck Lebron on Tony Parker and hid Hughes in the corner guarding Bruce Bowen. Clearly, with Hughes hobbling, this was a nice band aid in game one to stop some of the bleeding, but I don’t have faith that Lebron can effectively guard Tony for the rest of the series and keep up his energy on the offensive end. Who is Mike Brown going to go to that has the lateral quickness to keep up with Parker. Might we have another Eric Snow sighting?
Big Z is not going to score two points again. The question is, will he get enough help from the perimeter to keep the Spurs from camping out around him?
All in all, game two should be fascinating; I expect a bunch of adjustments from the Cavs and some interesting countermoves from San Antonio.
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Remember the Spurs
“Tim Duncan is the best player of this generation.” Right now, you read this all over the internet, sports writers have been heaping praise on Duncan and the Spurs since their ousting of the Suns in the Conference Semifinals. Though the above statement has been manifest since around 2004, for a while there was a collective Alzheimer’s in the media regarding the accomplishments of this man and his team. All of that has suddenly changed. Whether it is because of the appalling (from some perspectives) lack of star power since round 1, or whether it is an attempt to make the public forget about the Spurs’ dubious win against Phoenix, sports writers in all avenues are suddenly figuring out what the rest of us have known for years: Duncan’s Spurs deserve to be recognized side by side with, if not above, Shaq’s Lakers as the best team of this era.
And yet, for all the praise going around these days, this is not how the Spurs are going to be remembered. Assuming Lebron James ends up sustaining his level of play and enters into the pantheon of over hyped NBA greats, Duncan and the Spurs will either be the faces of that insurmountable opponent that frustrated young Lebron’s first attempt, or they will forever be known as the giant that the young one felled at the tender age of 22. I compare it to the way we look at those great late 80’s Pistons teams. Today, we look at them as the obstacle that Jordan had to get over to become great. We don’t often remember the Pistons as their own team, instead placing them in the context of the Jordan legacy. I feel as though, win or lose, this is how the 2007 San Antonio Spurs will be remembered. Not that they care of course. It is well known that the Spurs care only about winning and Tony Parker’s rap career—reputation pales in comparison.
Even if Pop and Co will never admit to caring about their place in history, I wonder if the basketball world is doing itself a disservice. What the Spurs have done in the past 9 years is nothing short of remarkable. Their accomplishments have been muted for a number of reasons (such as the fact that they have failed to win two years in a row), but the fact is, they have been among the favorites to win a title every year. In 2000, they would have gone deep into the playoffs but for Tim Duncan’s foot injury that resulted in the champs getting ousted in round one. In 2001 and 2002 they were in a period of transition, they’re roster had huge changes between their 1999 and 2003 titles. Still, they remained the best team outside of California (I would have loved to see a Spurs/Kings series during these years. Could you imagine Tim Duncan going at Chris Webber in his prime?). In 2004 they would have won the title if not for that highly deflating Fischer shot and the resulting losses. (By the way, does anyone else see parallels between the Lakers/Spurs series in 2004 and the Mavericks/Heat series last year? In both cases, a team loaded with veterans found itself down, and rallied after a close victory to sweep the rest of a series against a superior team. Just a thought) In 2006, despite Tim Duncan’s severe foot injury, they played as well as ever, falling to a healthier, younger, and perhaps better Dallas team. People talk all the time about Jordan’s flu game, well Duncan had the plantar fasciitis season! I don’t expect people to suddenly give San Antonio their due, its much too late for that, but I hope that 20 years from now, we realize that we were witness to a wonderful era in basketball history, a time when the San Antonio Spurs defined success.
EDIT: Need confirmation of my fear? Kevin Pelton of supersonics.com, in his NBA Finals preview, writes: "Still, as Cleveland prepares to face San Antonio in the first NBA Finals in franchise history, the series is seen as largely about James. Will this be the first step towards his legacy or champion or another learning lesson along that path?"
And yet, for all the praise going around these days, this is not how the Spurs are going to be remembered. Assuming Lebron James ends up sustaining his level of play and enters into the pantheon of over hyped NBA greats, Duncan and the Spurs will either be the faces of that insurmountable opponent that frustrated young Lebron’s first attempt, or they will forever be known as the giant that the young one felled at the tender age of 22. I compare it to the way we look at those great late 80’s Pistons teams. Today, we look at them as the obstacle that Jordan had to get over to become great. We don’t often remember the Pistons as their own team, instead placing them in the context of the Jordan legacy. I feel as though, win or lose, this is how the 2007 San Antonio Spurs will be remembered. Not that they care of course. It is well known that the Spurs care only about winning and Tony Parker’s rap career—reputation pales in comparison.
Even if Pop and Co will never admit to caring about their place in history, I wonder if the basketball world is doing itself a disservice. What the Spurs have done in the past 9 years is nothing short of remarkable. Their accomplishments have been muted for a number of reasons (such as the fact that they have failed to win two years in a row), but the fact is, they have been among the favorites to win a title every year. In 2000, they would have gone deep into the playoffs but for Tim Duncan’s foot injury that resulted in the champs getting ousted in round one. In 2001 and 2002 they were in a period of transition, they’re roster had huge changes between their 1999 and 2003 titles. Still, they remained the best team outside of California (I would have loved to see a Spurs/Kings series during these years. Could you imagine Tim Duncan going at Chris Webber in his prime?). In 2004 they would have won the title if not for that highly deflating Fischer shot and the resulting losses. (By the way, does anyone else see parallels between the Lakers/Spurs series in 2004 and the Mavericks/Heat series last year? In both cases, a team loaded with veterans found itself down, and rallied after a close victory to sweep the rest of a series against a superior team. Just a thought) In 2006, despite Tim Duncan’s severe foot injury, they played as well as ever, falling to a healthier, younger, and perhaps better Dallas team. People talk all the time about Jordan’s flu game, well Duncan had the plantar fasciitis season! I don’t expect people to suddenly give San Antonio their due, its much too late for that, but I hope that 20 years from now, we realize that we were witness to a wonderful era in basketball history, a time when the San Antonio Spurs defined success.
EDIT: Need confirmation of my fear? Kevin Pelton of supersonics.com, in his NBA Finals preview, writes: "Still, as Cleveland prepares to face San Antonio in the first NBA Finals in franchise history, the series is seen as largely about James. Will this be the first step towards his legacy or champion or another learning lesson along that path?"
Monday, June 4, 2007
Cavs/Spurs
Who saw this coming? Well the guys at thepaintedarea.com for one, but few others. My instincts tell me that San Antonio will have no problem, but I'm tired of sleeping on the Cavaliers, who I think pose some interesting match up difficulties for the Spurs. In fact, both teams have questions in matching up with their foe:
Where will Lebron get his points? While the Pistons were known as a great defensive team, they did not show it in the conference finals. The Spurs’ interior D is not going to give up the kind of penetration that Rasheed Wallace felt compelled to ignore in game five. Furthermore, San Antonio’s disciplined rotation schemes are going to allow them to recover when Lebron penetrates and dishes, I don’t expect Gibson to go off game 6 style against the Spurs. Because of these two factors, Cleveland is going to live and die by Lebron’s midrange jump shot. Over the course of the Pistons series, James has shown that he has the ability to take, and make, the types of difficult shots that Kobe is known for. With Bowen covering him, James is going to have a tough time muscling his way into the post, and Duncan’s help is going to stop easy buckets off penetration. Until the Spurs start to send hard doubles at Lebron (on cnnsi.com, Tony Parker claims that the Spurs are opting for single coverage to start), James’ best scoring opportunities are going to come from jump shots. If Lebron can continue to make these, a lot of pressure will be taken off the rest of Cleveland’s offense. Something to note is that this is the first time throughout the playoffs that Bowen gets a defensive assignment that will rely on his strength more than his (diminished) quickness. While I expect Bowen to do better here than he did with his stints on Deron Williams, he has had trouble with Kobe in the past and might have more trouble with Lebron that people expect.
Who guards Tim Duncan and can Varejao fit into the offense? The way I see it, Duncan is too quick for Ilgauskas, and much too big for everyone else in the Cavs starting five. I expect hard doubles as long as Varejao is off the floor. However, Varejao has shown himself to be one of the league’s more reliable post defenders, and if he can deal with Duncan single coverage, the Cavaliers will be much better for it. With Varejao the question is, and always has been, whether he can play without bogging down Cleveland’s offence. I expect Varejao to get major minutes in this series, perhaps even more than the 26 he averaged in the Detroit series, it will be interesting to see how Cleveland’s offense works with him on the floor (can you even run the pick and roll with him, or do you send him to the far corner, running the P&R with Gooden instead?).
How do the Spurs guard the Cavs front line and which Drew Gooden will we see? I expect the Spurs to put Duncan on Gooden and use Oberto and Elson to use their quickness to bother Big Z. I think Elson will be especially useful in using his length, he is one of the few guys with arms long enough to really bother Ilgauskas. In the Utah series, however, it was Oberto who got the bulk of the minutes (31), while Elson languished on the bench. Pop has shown great aptitude at playing each of his center’s to their strengths, using them when the match up is most appropriate, thus I expect to see more of Elson this series, at least on defense (see below). Related to this is the question of Gooden, who has played significantly worse as the playoffs have gone on. Gooden netted only 9 ppg in the Pistons series, down from 14 in the Washington series. Even more important is the dip in rebounding, Gooden went from grabbing 10 a game in the first two rounds to just 5 in the Conference Finals. Its not like Duncan is going to make his life easier either, Timmy is, after all, one of the world’s best post defenders. However, if Duncan is forced to slide over and help on James’ penetrations, perhaps Gooden will get a few more open looks than he did with Wallace on him. Wallace was loath to slide over and help (explaining Lebron’s lay-up clinic in game 5), but the Spurs are going to want Duncan to help, giving Gooden a few open looks.
Should the Spurs run? YES! The Spurs are not known as a running team, but they are starting to get a reputation as a team that can play at any speed, shown most clearly in the Phoenix series this year. The Cavs defense absolutely smothers the pick and roll, as we saw against New Jersey, and I expect them to give Parker and Duncan trouble when they attempt to run the Spurs’ offense. In fact, with their combination of front court quickness and back court size, the Cavs are better equipped to deal with San Antiono’s pick and roll than any team not from Dallas. If their bread and butter isn’t their, how will the Spurs respond? How about going small, playing stretches with Parker, Manu, Bowen, Finley/Barry, and Duncan/Oberto, running the ball and forcing Cleveland to take one of their bigs off the floor? Parker and Ginobili form one of the best (and most underrated) running back courts in the game, and with Finley or Barry to spread the floor and Duncan and Oberto sprinting to finish long passes, the Spurs might want to do their Phoenix imitation in an effort to win the series.
All and all, I think Cleveland presents and interesting challenge for San Antonio, but the Spurs are playing as well as they ever have. Besides, San Antonio always wins in the odd years!
Spurs in 6
Where will Lebron get his points? While the Pistons were known as a great defensive team, they did not show it in the conference finals. The Spurs’ interior D is not going to give up the kind of penetration that Rasheed Wallace felt compelled to ignore in game five. Furthermore, San Antonio’s disciplined rotation schemes are going to allow them to recover when Lebron penetrates and dishes, I don’t expect Gibson to go off game 6 style against the Spurs. Because of these two factors, Cleveland is going to live and die by Lebron’s midrange jump shot. Over the course of the Pistons series, James has shown that he has the ability to take, and make, the types of difficult shots that Kobe is known for. With Bowen covering him, James is going to have a tough time muscling his way into the post, and Duncan’s help is going to stop easy buckets off penetration. Until the Spurs start to send hard doubles at Lebron (on cnnsi.com, Tony Parker claims that the Spurs are opting for single coverage to start), James’ best scoring opportunities are going to come from jump shots. If Lebron can continue to make these, a lot of pressure will be taken off the rest of Cleveland’s offense. Something to note is that this is the first time throughout the playoffs that Bowen gets a defensive assignment that will rely on his strength more than his (diminished) quickness. While I expect Bowen to do better here than he did with his stints on Deron Williams, he has had trouble with Kobe in the past and might have more trouble with Lebron that people expect.
Who guards Tim Duncan and can Varejao fit into the offense? The way I see it, Duncan is too quick for Ilgauskas, and much too big for everyone else in the Cavs starting five. I expect hard doubles as long as Varejao is off the floor. However, Varejao has shown himself to be one of the league’s more reliable post defenders, and if he can deal with Duncan single coverage, the Cavaliers will be much better for it. With Varejao the question is, and always has been, whether he can play without bogging down Cleveland’s offence. I expect Varejao to get major minutes in this series, perhaps even more than the 26 he averaged in the Detroit series, it will be interesting to see how Cleveland’s offense works with him on the floor (can you even run the pick and roll with him, or do you send him to the far corner, running the P&R with Gooden instead?).
How do the Spurs guard the Cavs front line and which Drew Gooden will we see? I expect the Spurs to put Duncan on Gooden and use Oberto and Elson to use their quickness to bother Big Z. I think Elson will be especially useful in using his length, he is one of the few guys with arms long enough to really bother Ilgauskas. In the Utah series, however, it was Oberto who got the bulk of the minutes (31), while Elson languished on the bench. Pop has shown great aptitude at playing each of his center’s to their strengths, using them when the match up is most appropriate, thus I expect to see more of Elson this series, at least on defense (see below). Related to this is the question of Gooden, who has played significantly worse as the playoffs have gone on. Gooden netted only 9 ppg in the Pistons series, down from 14 in the Washington series. Even more important is the dip in rebounding, Gooden went from grabbing 10 a game in the first two rounds to just 5 in the Conference Finals. Its not like Duncan is going to make his life easier either, Timmy is, after all, one of the world’s best post defenders. However, if Duncan is forced to slide over and help on James’ penetrations, perhaps Gooden will get a few more open looks than he did with Wallace on him. Wallace was loath to slide over and help (explaining Lebron’s lay-up clinic in game 5), but the Spurs are going to want Duncan to help, giving Gooden a few open looks.
Should the Spurs run? YES! The Spurs are not known as a running team, but they are starting to get a reputation as a team that can play at any speed, shown most clearly in the Phoenix series this year. The Cavs defense absolutely smothers the pick and roll, as we saw against New Jersey, and I expect them to give Parker and Duncan trouble when they attempt to run the Spurs’ offense. In fact, with their combination of front court quickness and back court size, the Cavs are better equipped to deal with San Antiono’s pick and roll than any team not from Dallas. If their bread and butter isn’t their, how will the Spurs respond? How about going small, playing stretches with Parker, Manu, Bowen, Finley/Barry, and Duncan/Oberto, running the ball and forcing Cleveland to take one of their bigs off the floor? Parker and Ginobili form one of the best (and most underrated) running back courts in the game, and with Finley or Barry to spread the floor and Duncan and Oberto sprinting to finish long passes, the Spurs might want to do their Phoenix imitation in an effort to win the series.
All and all, I think Cleveland presents and interesting challenge for San Antonio, but the Spurs are playing as well as they ever have. Besides, San Antonio always wins in the odd years!
Spurs in 6
Friday, May 25, 2007
Sunday, May 6, 2007
Suns/Spurs
The West’s marquee match up for this second round is now even bigger because the Mavs are out of the playoffs (feels kinda weird, doesn’t it?). This is a series that features perhaps the two best teams left in the playoffs, and pits the league’s best grind it out defense against its most efficient up tempo offense. As I talked about when discussing their first round match up with Denver, San-Antonio’s biggest strength is their ability to masterfully control the tempo of a game. Consider the fact that, during the regular season, Phoenix averaged 12 points less than normal against the Spurs. On the individual side, the Spurs defenders have taken most of Phoenix’s big guns off their game. Nash shot 30% from behind the arc against Tony Parker and whatever help the Spurs gave him, a 15% decrease from his season average. Shawn Marion struggles as well, with his FG% dropping to a ghastly 37%. The other member of the Suns big three, Stoudemire, is well recognized for having big games against San Antonio, especially during their last series in 2005 in which he blew up for over 35 a game. People are putting that stat all over the place, neglecting to point out that that series was never competitive. What happens is that when San Antonio slows the game down, the Phoenix offense becomes a pick and roll or two man game with Nash and Stoudemire. So Soudemire gets more touches against the Spurs, but that’s exactly what San Antonio wants. San Antonio is not perfect, this will not be a sweep, though I don’t think it will be so competitive either. Look for San Antonio to steal one on the road early, defend their home court, and pull it out in six.
San Antonio in 6
EDIT: Looking over old posts, I realize that I had first picked the Spurs to win in five. The only reason why I changed it was because to do so would require San Antonio to win two games, including an elimination game five, on the road. I think its more likely they drop two in Phoenix, but take care of business in Texas to send the Suns packing
San Antonio in 6
EDIT: Looking over old posts, I realize that I had first picked the Spurs to win in five. The only reason why I changed it was because to do so would require San Antonio to win two games, including an elimination game five, on the road. I think its more likely they drop two in Phoenix, but take care of business in Texas to send the Suns packing
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
I Live for Spurs/Nuggets
SA 19, DEN 12- Three minutes left in the First quarter and the Spurs are defending out of their minds. They are demonstrating their masterful ability to control the tempo off every Denver turnover. Parker is looking to push but is also quick to bring the ball out and reset. Furthermore, the Spurs, aparently readers of this blog, have been utilizing Duncan more on the high post, using his explosivness and passing abilities to take Nene off his defensive game. The Nuggets are getting nothing easy and things look good right now for San Antonio.
If nothing else this game showed that Denver needs to be included in discussions of the West's elite teams. The Nugget's interior defense was fantastic in initiating a fourth quarter comeback. Still, the Spurs did what the Spurs do best, controling the tempo for most of the night and utilizing Duncan and Parker's offensive versitility to keep the Nuggets defense guessing. Frankly, other than during Denver's end of the game run, the Spurs looked masterful.
Now we are witnessing Golden State's relentless offensive game. Dallas is within four as of the end of the first, but GS has completly controlled the tempo. Dallas doesn't have to start worrying yet, but looking ahead, I'm not sure Dallas can win four at this speed.
The 3rd quarter is over and clearly I was wrong. Dallas not only produced a 30 point quarter of its own, it did it while holding Golden State to 22. Dallas made it to the finals last year with its versatility, and its showing it again tonight.
If nothing else this game showed that Denver needs to be included in discussions of the West's elite teams. The Nugget's interior defense was fantastic in initiating a fourth quarter comeback. Still, the Spurs did what the Spurs do best, controling the tempo for most of the night and utilizing Duncan and Parker's offensive versitility to keep the Nuggets defense guessing. Frankly, other than during Denver's end of the game run, the Spurs looked masterful.
Now we are witnessing Golden State's relentless offensive game. Dallas is within four as of the end of the first, but GS has completly controlled the tempo. Dallas doesn't have to start worrying yet, but looking ahead, I'm not sure Dallas can win four at this speed.
The 3rd quarter is over and clearly I was wrong. Dallas not only produced a 30 point quarter of its own, it did it while holding Golden State to 22. Dallas made it to the finals last year with its versatility, and its showing it again tonight.
Monday, April 23, 2007
Why the Mavs should worry less and why the Spurs should worry more
I'm a Spurs fan... there, I said it. I'm upset that they lost last night, depite the well recited factoid that they have lost their first playoff game for the past couple of years. Still, much of what I saw last night gives me, and Spurs fans all over, reason to panic.
First of all, Denver was able to get 95 points on the Spurs defense, but not only did they outscore the supposed masters of tempo control, they outdefended them as well. For much of the night, Duncan, and everyone else in black and white seemed unable to get off solid shots. On the other end, the Spurs could not put a stop to Iverson and Anthony's abilities to take it inside. This is both surprising and upsetting, seeing as how much of the Spurs defense is predicated on Bowen's toughness and Ginobli's speed, which are supposed to keep dribble penetration to a minimum. Denver seemed capable of pushing the tempo at times and slowing it down when they needed it, San Antonio rarely looked like they were in control, and without their ability to force teams to play their style, I don't think the spurs have much going for them.
Scarier than both of those were the way that Nene was able to bully Tim Duncan. I have long believed that Nene is an underated defender, but I had no idea just how good he was. With Camby intimidating would be dribblers, the Spurs best bet was to get the ball to Duncan and let him go to work. Duncan shot 7/17 and at times looked frustrated against Nene's defense. At other times, the Spurs used Duncan as a point forward, giving him the ball high and allowing him to make plays. This was when the team looked their best, and Duncan is certianly capable enough (7 assists last night), but Duncan is not Chris Webber, it is good to post him up high sometimes to distribute, but in general, he belongs on the block with his back to the basket. What I'm hoping is that Duncan finds a way to use his faceup game more. He has the skill to get by Nene off the dribble, but with Camby's presence on help, taking Nene off the dribble might be risky. In general, the Spurs showed that the Nuggets are more than capable of giving them fits. Pop and his soldiers are in need of adjustment. Perhaps we need to see the ball in Ginobili's hands more, allowing him to push the tempo before Camby and Nene are able to get set. The spurs are a better than averege running sqad, with Parker and Ginobili, alongside Brent Barry and Finley who can spread the defense. Eitherway, something needs to be done or the Spurs will be fishing with alot of questions to answer.
The Mavs' loss is the one more people are talking about, yet it was the upset that has been predicted over and over the past few weeks. I did expect Dallas to lose one or two to GS, but not this soon and not this bad. Still, I think the Mavs have more positives to take out of this game than does San-Antonio. As Hollinger and others have pointed out (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2007/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2846252), Avery Johnson might have over-adjusted his lineup to match up with Golden State. Dirk just doesn't look comfortable when he plays the 5. I, like Hollinger, think that Dallas should focus more on playing its game. They are a much better team, they need to force Golden State to match up with them.
All told, last night was a very exciting first Sunday night of playoff basketball, but no one has been eliminated yet. While both Texas giants should be sweating, it is much to early to start talking about historically unprecidented upsets.
First of all, Denver was able to get 95 points on the Spurs defense, but not only did they outscore the supposed masters of tempo control, they outdefended them as well. For much of the night, Duncan, and everyone else in black and white seemed unable to get off solid shots. On the other end, the Spurs could not put a stop to Iverson and Anthony's abilities to take it inside. This is both surprising and upsetting, seeing as how much of the Spurs defense is predicated on Bowen's toughness and Ginobli's speed, which are supposed to keep dribble penetration to a minimum. Denver seemed capable of pushing the tempo at times and slowing it down when they needed it, San Antonio rarely looked like they were in control, and without their ability to force teams to play their style, I don't think the spurs have much going for them.
Scarier than both of those were the way that Nene was able to bully Tim Duncan. I have long believed that Nene is an underated defender, but I had no idea just how good he was. With Camby intimidating would be dribblers, the Spurs best bet was to get the ball to Duncan and let him go to work. Duncan shot 7/17 and at times looked frustrated against Nene's defense. At other times, the Spurs used Duncan as a point forward, giving him the ball high and allowing him to make plays. This was when the team looked their best, and Duncan is certianly capable enough (7 assists last night), but Duncan is not Chris Webber, it is good to post him up high sometimes to distribute, but in general, he belongs on the block with his back to the basket. What I'm hoping is that Duncan finds a way to use his faceup game more. He has the skill to get by Nene off the dribble, but with Camby's presence on help, taking Nene off the dribble might be risky. In general, the Spurs showed that the Nuggets are more than capable of giving them fits. Pop and his soldiers are in need of adjustment. Perhaps we need to see the ball in Ginobili's hands more, allowing him to push the tempo before Camby and Nene are able to get set. The spurs are a better than averege running sqad, with Parker and Ginobili, alongside Brent Barry and Finley who can spread the defense. Eitherway, something needs to be done or the Spurs will be fishing with alot of questions to answer.
The Mavs' loss is the one more people are talking about, yet it was the upset that has been predicted over and over the past few weeks. I did expect Dallas to lose one or two to GS, but not this soon and not this bad. Still, I think the Mavs have more positives to take out of this game than does San-Antonio. As Hollinger and others have pointed out (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2007/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2846252), Avery Johnson might have over-adjusted his lineup to match up with Golden State. Dirk just doesn't look comfortable when he plays the 5. I, like Hollinger, think that Dallas should focus more on playing its game. They are a much better team, they need to force Golden State to match up with them.
All told, last night was a very exciting first Sunday night of playoff basketball, but no one has been eliminated yet. While both Texas giants should be sweating, it is much to early to start talking about historically unprecidented upsets.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Texas Domination
Western Confrence Preview- streamlined version
1. Dallas vs. 8. Golden State: Dallas in 5. Believe the hype, GS is good, but not good enough.
2. Phoenix vs. 7. LA Lakers: Phoenix in 5. Lakers are stone cold, we will not see a repeat of last year.
3. San-Antonio vs. 6. Denver: San-Antonio in 6. Spurs don't lose in the first round, espeically not against a running team.
4. Houston vs. 5. Utah: Houston in 7. This will be a great series for defense lovers.
Second round:
1. Dallas vs. 4. Houston: Dallas in 7. This series will be more competitive than people think.
2. Phoenix vs. 3. San-Antonio: San-Antonio in 5. No one will be surprised when San-Antonio wins, they'll be surprised when the see how quickly
Finals:
1. Dallas vs. 3. San-Antonio: San-Antonio in 7. I can't vote against the Spurs, but this could go either way.
1. Dallas vs. 8. Golden State: Dallas in 5. Believe the hype, GS is good, but not good enough.
2. Phoenix vs. 7. LA Lakers: Phoenix in 5. Lakers are stone cold, we will not see a repeat of last year.
3. San-Antonio vs. 6. Denver: San-Antonio in 6. Spurs don't lose in the first round, espeically not against a running team.
4. Houston vs. 5. Utah: Houston in 7. This will be a great series for defense lovers.
Second round:
1. Dallas vs. 4. Houston: Dallas in 7. This series will be more competitive than people think.
2. Phoenix vs. 3. San-Antonio: San-Antonio in 5. No one will be surprised when San-Antonio wins, they'll be surprised when the see how quickly
Finals:
1. Dallas vs. 3. San-Antonio: San-Antonio in 7. I can't vote against the Spurs, but this could go either way.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Why I'm Psyched for the Western Confrence Playoffs
The East is very top heavy in that the top five teams (Pistons, Bulls, Cavs, Raptors, and Heat) are far beyond the bottom three, as a result, I don't think we are going to see such a great first round out East. That's why my preview of the Eastern Confrence Playoffs (below) focuses on the second round. In the West, however, there are some good matchups out there from the get go. Unfortunately for them, Denver just sealed up the sixth seed, earning them a date with the Spurs (most likely). I truly think that Denver could have, and might have, upset the Suns. But against the Spurs, who are the NBA's best at shutting down running teams, I'm not sure they can win a game.
I'm praying that Golden State catches the Clippers and the lakers fall out. I think a Clippers/Suns series would be good, but I'm really looking forward to a match between Dallas and Golden State. Don Nelson has always done a good job coaching against his former teams, and I think GS's high paced offence can give Dallas fits. I don't expect an upset, but I wouldn't be surprised if it takes Dallas six games to get it.
If the Lakers do play the Suns, we've got a rematch of what ended up being a good series last year. However, I don't see the Lakers playing the calibre of ball they were at this time last season. Raja Bell does a better job on Kobe than 90% of the league. That said, if the Lakers can get it together, their big front line has what it takes to give the Suns trouble at times. We've already seen that this matchup can be a good one, but it depends on how well Phil Jackson can rally the troops.
Finally, we have Houston/Utah, which I think is going to be a grind it out battle between the two of the most overlooked teams in the NBA. When it comes down to it, I think Houston is going to be too much defense for the already suspect Jazz offense, but if the Jazz take the series, no one will be surprised, least of all me.
For the second round, all eyes are going to be on San Antonio and Phoenix, but I'm not sure Phoenix is capable of taking three games off the Spurs, who are should be called the Maestros because they are so good at controling tempo. Much more fun to me will be the Houston/Dallas match, featuring two of the best hard nosed, defensive minded coaches in the NBA. Van Gundy and Johnson imbue their teams with a toughness that alot of teams lack. I expect this series to be hard fouht. I'm not sure Houston has what it takes to get it to six or seven, but they might. And whatever games there are will be highly entertaining contests.
Finally, we're going to have Dallas/San Antonio in the matchup that everybody wants to see. Last year's series was one of the best playoff matchups I've ever seen, I can't imagine that this year can be better, but basketball fans around the world are praying.
All in all, I think we are in store for a great couple of months of playoff basketball. Once the seedings are solidified I'll post my formal predictions.
I'm praying that Golden State catches the Clippers and the lakers fall out. I think a Clippers/Suns series would be good, but I'm really looking forward to a match between Dallas and Golden State. Don Nelson has always done a good job coaching against his former teams, and I think GS's high paced offence can give Dallas fits. I don't expect an upset, but I wouldn't be surprised if it takes Dallas six games to get it.
If the Lakers do play the Suns, we've got a rematch of what ended up being a good series last year. However, I don't see the Lakers playing the calibre of ball they were at this time last season. Raja Bell does a better job on Kobe than 90% of the league. That said, if the Lakers can get it together, their big front line has what it takes to give the Suns trouble at times. We've already seen that this matchup can be a good one, but it depends on how well Phil Jackson can rally the troops.
Finally, we have Houston/Utah, which I think is going to be a grind it out battle between the two of the most overlooked teams in the NBA. When it comes down to it, I think Houston is going to be too much defense for the already suspect Jazz offense, but if the Jazz take the series, no one will be surprised, least of all me.
For the second round, all eyes are going to be on San Antonio and Phoenix, but I'm not sure Phoenix is capable of taking three games off the Spurs, who are should be called the Maestros because they are so good at controling tempo. Much more fun to me will be the Houston/Dallas match, featuring two of the best hard nosed, defensive minded coaches in the NBA. Van Gundy and Johnson imbue their teams with a toughness that alot of teams lack. I expect this series to be hard fouht. I'm not sure Houston has what it takes to get it to six or seven, but they might. And whatever games there are will be highly entertaining contests.
Finally, we're going to have Dallas/San Antonio in the matchup that everybody wants to see. Last year's series was one of the best playoff matchups I've ever seen, I can't imagine that this year can be better, but basketball fans around the world are praying.
All in all, I think we are in store for a great couple of months of playoff basketball. Once the seedings are solidified I'll post my formal predictions.
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