Showing posts with label Dallas Mavericks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dallas Mavericks. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 2, 2007

Don't, Don't, Don't Believe the Hype

Between now and Thursday, when the Mavs and Warriors battle again, there is going to be a lot of talk about Dirk, and how he ‘elevated his game,’ ‘silenced critics,’ etc. I think this says a lot about the relationship the media has with the NBA and how powerful they are in influencing how the game is sold. The media is trying to spin the series to tell us fans a story. It’s a story of emotion, where the emotionally charged Warriors are out-emoting the scared Mavs. Dirk Nowitzki, the erstwhile MVP is being bashed because he lacks the ‘fire’ to elevate his game. He is compared to the great scorers of all time and falls short, not because of a deficiency in his game, not because he is easily defended, but because of his ‘passion,’ his ‘drive,’ his ‘confidence.’ Then, like manna from heaven (from the league’s perspective), Dirk puts together his best game of the series in a do or die situation, and a new chapter is added to this heavily constructed story. Columns will come out tomorrow applauding Dirk for silencing the critics, ignoring the fact that the people writing these columns are the very critics he silenced. Folks, most of the people whose stuff you read (yes, even Bill Simmons) are writing for mass media outlets, most of which have close financial ties to the NBA. And so they spin, taking a complex series and telling it as a nice, neat, narrative.

Basketball, like all sports, is in large part a game of intensity, emotion does factor heavily into what these players do every night. That said, 67 win teams do not lose to 42 win teams on intensity alone. Make no mistake people, Dirk Nowitzki is as competitive as most. Not everyone is Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson, or Steve Nash (to name a few), but if you don’t think Nowitzki plays with fire than you aren’t watching closely enough. What’s hurting the Mavs is not an emotional deficiency, it has to do with a combination of a brilliant coaching job on the part of Don Nelson, the unique nature of Nowitzki’s game, and the fact that the Mavs just don’t match up well with the Warriors.

Don Nelson is of a unique mold among coaches in that he needs teams that can play to his style, he doesn’t coach to a team’s strengths (see Knicks, 1995). However, when blessed with the right type of lineup, he is among the best strategists in the game. When he was with Golden State the first time, and definitely during his stint with Dallas, Nelson was great at running the team in a way that emphasized his team’s ability. Add that to the fact that he is intimately acquainted with the Mavs’ personnel, and you have a recipe for a great coaching job. I could cite a number of things that he has done to hurt the Mavs, but let’s focus on how he is defending Dirk.

When people claim that Dirk Nowitzki redefined the 4 position, they say it because he has a unique playing style. Dirk is slow, he can be explosive off one dribble but does a poor job creating his own shot off the dribble. Despite his size, he plays best while facing the basket, and because of this can be very ineffective on the low block. And, of course, Dirk’s stroke combined with his size makes his shot nigh unstoppable. To play down his deficiencies, the Mavs usually run a 1-4 set, which means that Dirk gets the ball in the middle of the floor, while everyone else spreads out along the base line (1 player at the top, 4 players at the bottom). Usually teams isolate their scorers on one side or the other. The problem with isolating the middle of the floor, like the Mavs do, is that it means that a double team can come from anywhere. Nelson knows this, and he has the personnel to exploit this weakness in the Mavs set. He has doubles coming from all over the floor, forcing Nowtizki to make a decision: He can try to pass out of the double team, a tough prospect because the middle of the floor is a difficult place to pass out of effectively (and Dirk is not a terrific passer). Another option is to use his dribble to commit to one side, which is exactly what the Warriors want Nowitzki to do. Once they get Nowitzki to put the ball on the floor, they have him at his most vulnerable. Turnovers and bad shots ensue. These tactics are effective, they take Dirk off his game, and THAT is when the mind games start, that is when the confidence begins to eek away. It is not emotion that is dictating this series, it is strategy.

And regarding whether Nowitzki actually ‘elevated his game’ in the fourth tonight, undoubtedly Dirk played his best fourth quarter tonight, but very little of what he did was different from other games. Those two big threes he hit in the last few minutes? They looked eerily similar to the two he hit at the end of game 4. The difference? These came a few minutes earlier, where as Dirk’s hot shooting in game four was too little too late. So, when you read that Dirk has found his fire, regained the competitive spirit, or whatever hyperbolic statement ESPN.com throws at you, think really hard before you buy into the hype.

Friday, April 27, 2007

60 Point Halves, Parity, and More

Didn't get to watch the Bulls or the Nets roll tonite (my housemates outvoted me in favor of watching Redsox/Yankees), and its a shame. I am now officially in awe of Jason Kidd, despite multiple knee surgeries and despite me losing faith in his durability, he is showing that he deserves to be mentioned as one of the best clutch players of all time (in addition to being among the top 10 point guards of all time and the top 2 transition point guards of all time). The Nets are playing out of their minds right now, and if they can close out the Raptors, I think they stand a good chance of 'upsetting' the overrated (and overseeded) Cavs.

I now regret claiming that the Heat would take the Bulls to seven games, its as if I bought into the Heat hype as much as everyone else. Still, I reiterate, this Heat team is just not very good.

Meanwhile, we are about to enter the fourth quarter of a Golden State route. A few observations:
-Rarely have I seen a good, right handed, seven footer look as lost in low post as Dirk does right now. He's not doing too badly (7/15 shooting right now), but Stephen Jackson and the rest of the Warriors have done a terrific job keeping out of the middle of the floor where he is most deadly, forcing him to either low post where it is more difficult to get off a shot. I wonder why more teams haven't utilized such a tactic over the course of the season.

-After every made basket in the first half (where they scored 60) the Warriors, if undetered by full court pressure, throw a long pass to around midcourt. They break on plays were they don't even have numbers. For every moment of every game, all five players on the court are thinking three things: 'run, run, and run some more.'

-The Warriors are not a good defensive team personell wise, but they are a smart team defensivly, defending Nowitzki effectivly and taking the Mavs out of their desired offensive schemes.

-I, like the good folks at ESPN, am starting to think upset, and what that would mean for this Mavs team. I'm pretty sure the only thing more dissapointing than losing a 2-0 finals lead is to be the best team in the regular season, only to have it all unravel in the first round. Furthermore, think about what would happen if both the Heat and Mavs lose in the first round. I can't remember the last time both confrences were without their champions in round two (the last champion to keep its team intact and lose in round one were the 99-00 Spurs who were without Tim Duncan). This speaks volumes about the level of parity attained by the NBA in the past decade. Between 1989 and 2002, only five teams won titles, with the Bulls taking six, the Lakers taking three, the Pistons and Rockets taking two each, and the Spurs taking one. Yet, in the years from 2003 to today, we have already seen three teams win titles, with only the Spurs taking more than one. I think that this is great. If the Mavs get eliminated, that leaves, I think, five teams with realistic shots at winning the title (Spurs, Pistons, Bulls, Suns, Rockets). I love it, I love that you can't pick a champion for sure, you really get the sense that anyone can win.

-Finally, Jason Richardson does more than jump high, his shot is deadly, keeping defenses honest. And with his athleticism and explosivness, he is capable of getting to the rim on drives. Baron Davis is the best player on this Warriors team, but Richardson has gone from being a mindless scorers to a perfect fit for a well oiled Warriors machine.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

I Live for Spurs/Nuggets

SA 19, DEN 12- Three minutes left in the First quarter and the Spurs are defending out of their minds. They are demonstrating their masterful ability to control the tempo off every Denver turnover. Parker is looking to push but is also quick to bring the ball out and reset. Furthermore, the Spurs, aparently readers of this blog, have been utilizing Duncan more on the high post, using his explosivness and passing abilities to take Nene off his defensive game. The Nuggets are getting nothing easy and things look good right now for San Antonio.

If nothing else this game showed that Denver needs to be included in discussions of the West's elite teams. The Nugget's interior defense was fantastic in initiating a fourth quarter comeback. Still, the Spurs did what the Spurs do best, controling the tempo for most of the night and utilizing Duncan and Parker's offensive versitility to keep the Nuggets defense guessing. Frankly, other than during Denver's end of the game run, the Spurs looked masterful.

Now we are witnessing Golden State's relentless offensive game. Dallas is within four as of the end of the first, but GS has completly controlled the tempo. Dallas doesn't have to start worrying yet, but looking ahead, I'm not sure Dallas can win four at this speed.

The 3rd quarter is over and clearly I was wrong. Dallas not only produced a 30 point quarter of its own, it did it while holding Golden State to 22. Dallas made it to the finals last year with its versatility, and its showing it again tonight.

Monday, April 23, 2007

Why the Mavs should worry less and why the Spurs should worry more

I'm a Spurs fan... there, I said it. I'm upset that they lost last night, depite the well recited factoid that they have lost their first playoff game for the past couple of years. Still, much of what I saw last night gives me, and Spurs fans all over, reason to panic.

First of all, Denver was able to get 95 points on the Spurs defense, but not only did they outscore the supposed masters of tempo control, they outdefended them as well. For much of the night, Duncan, and everyone else in black and white seemed unable to get off solid shots. On the other end, the Spurs could not put a stop to Iverson and Anthony's abilities to take it inside. This is both surprising and upsetting, seeing as how much of the Spurs defense is predicated on Bowen's toughness and Ginobli's speed, which are supposed to keep dribble penetration to a minimum. Denver seemed capable of pushing the tempo at times and slowing it down when they needed it, San Antonio rarely looked like they were in control, and without their ability to force teams to play their style, I don't think the spurs have much going for them.

Scarier than both of those were the way that Nene was able to bully Tim Duncan. I have long believed that Nene is an underated defender, but I had no idea just how good he was. With Camby intimidating would be dribblers, the Spurs best bet was to get the ball to Duncan and let him go to work. Duncan shot 7/17 and at times looked frustrated against Nene's defense. At other times, the Spurs used Duncan as a point forward, giving him the ball high and allowing him to make plays. This was when the team looked their best, and Duncan is certianly capable enough (7 assists last night), but Duncan is not Chris Webber, it is good to post him up high sometimes to distribute, but in general, he belongs on the block with his back to the basket. What I'm hoping is that Duncan finds a way to use his faceup game more. He has the skill to get by Nene off the dribble, but with Camby's presence on help, taking Nene off the dribble might be risky. In general, the Spurs showed that the Nuggets are more than capable of giving them fits. Pop and his soldiers are in need of adjustment. Perhaps we need to see the ball in Ginobili's hands more, allowing him to push the tempo before Camby and Nene are able to get set. The spurs are a better than averege running sqad, with Parker and Ginobili, alongside Brent Barry and Finley who can spread the defense. Eitherway, something needs to be done or the Spurs will be fishing with alot of questions to answer.


The Mavs' loss is the one more people are talking about, yet it was the upset that has been predicted over and over the past few weeks. I did expect Dallas to lose one or two to GS, but not this soon and not this bad. Still, I think the Mavs have more positives to take out of this game than does San-Antonio. As Hollinger and others have pointed out (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2007/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2846252), Avery Johnson might have over-adjusted his lineup to match up with Golden State. Dirk just doesn't look comfortable when he plays the 5. I, like Hollinger, think that Dallas should focus more on playing its game. They are a much better team, they need to force Golden State to match up with them.

All told, last night was a very exciting first Sunday night of playoff basketball, but no one has been eliminated yet. While both Texas giants should be sweating, it is much to early to start talking about historically unprecidented upsets.

Saturday, April 21, 2007

Texas Domination

Western Confrence Preview- streamlined version

1. Dallas vs. 8. Golden State: Dallas in 5. Believe the hype, GS is good, but not good enough.
2. Phoenix vs. 7. LA Lakers: Phoenix in 5. Lakers are stone cold, we will not see a repeat of last year.
3. San-Antonio vs. 6. Denver: San-Antonio in 6. Spurs don't lose in the first round, espeically not against a running team.
4. Houston vs. 5. Utah: Houston in 7. This will be a great series for defense lovers.

Second round:
1. Dallas vs. 4. Houston: Dallas in 7. This series will be more competitive than people think.
2. Phoenix vs. 3. San-Antonio: San-Antonio in 5. No one will be surprised when San-Antonio wins, they'll be surprised when the see how quickly


Finals:

1. Dallas vs. 3. San-Antonio: San-Antonio in 7. I can't vote against the Spurs, but this could go either way.

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Why I'm Psyched for the Western Confrence Playoffs

The East is very top heavy in that the top five teams (Pistons, Bulls, Cavs, Raptors, and Heat) are far beyond the bottom three, as a result, I don't think we are going to see such a great first round out East. That's why my preview of the Eastern Confrence Playoffs (below) focuses on the second round. In the West, however, there are some good matchups out there from the get go. Unfortunately for them, Denver just sealed up the sixth seed, earning them a date with the Spurs (most likely). I truly think that Denver could have, and might have, upset the Suns. But against the Spurs, who are the NBA's best at shutting down running teams, I'm not sure they can win a game.

I'm praying that Golden State catches the Clippers and the lakers fall out. I think a Clippers/Suns series would be good, but I'm really looking forward to a match between Dallas and Golden State. Don Nelson has always done a good job coaching against his former teams, and I think GS's high paced offence can give Dallas fits. I don't expect an upset, but I wouldn't be surprised if it takes Dallas six games to get it.

If the Lakers do play the Suns, we've got a rematch of what ended up being a good series last year. However, I don't see the Lakers playing the calibre of ball they were at this time last season. Raja Bell does a better job on Kobe than 90% of the league. That said, if the Lakers can get it together, their big front line has what it takes to give the Suns trouble at times. We've already seen that this matchup can be a good one, but it depends on how well Phil Jackson can rally the troops.

Finally, we have Houston/Utah, which I think is going to be a grind it out battle between the two of the most overlooked teams in the NBA. When it comes down to it, I think Houston is going to be too much defense for the already suspect Jazz offense, but if the Jazz take the series, no one will be surprised, least of all me.

For the second round, all eyes are going to be on San Antonio and Phoenix, but I'm not sure Phoenix is capable of taking three games off the Spurs, who are should be called the Maestros because they are so good at controling tempo. Much more fun to me will be the Houston/Dallas match, featuring two of the best hard nosed, defensive minded coaches in the NBA. Van Gundy and Johnson imbue their teams with a toughness that alot of teams lack. I expect this series to be hard fouht. I'm not sure Houston has what it takes to get it to six or seven, but they might. And whatever games there are will be highly entertaining contests.

Finally, we're going to have Dallas/San Antonio in the matchup that everybody wants to see. Last year's series was one of the best playoff matchups I've ever seen, I can't imagine that this year can be better, but basketball fans around the world are praying.

All in all, I think we are in store for a great couple of months of playoff basketball. Once the seedings are solidified I'll post my formal predictions.

Monday, April 9, 2007

Knicks...

Playoff hopes are dwindling, but I would expect no less from a team that gave Kelvin Cato big 4th quarter minutes tonite. Some observations:

-Well, after jumping on the Mardy bandwagon yesterday, I had to grimace along with Mike Breen when Collins over dribbled, making a pass to Curry too late and comitting the turnover that started Detroit's fatal run.

-I gotta say I like the wierd zone the Knicks threw at the Pistons during the second quarter. Not sure how to describe it. Clyde called it a 2-1-2, which I guess it was, but really it was a 2-3 that kinda morphed into a 3-2 as the middle guy down low would slide up. While a 2-3 zone puts you in good position to double down in the low post, this defense was designed, I assume, to double Webber/Wallace on the high post, where they create havok with their terrific passing skills. I liked it, and I think it vexed the Pistons a bit.

-I love Pistons basketball. Aside from maybe San Antonio and Dallas, no team looks as professional as the Pistons, always seeming to be able to get off the shot they want when they want it. Tonite though it looked like they just arrived after hotboxing the team bus. True, they are looking forward to the playoffs, but until the end there, this was a wholly different team. I will say though that the Knicks defense (*cough* Mardy Collins *cough*) helped.

-Nate Robinson showed once again how dangerous a scorer he is capable of being. Still, I counted along with Breen (best play-by-play guy in the game FYI) around 5-7 instances where he just threw up a bad shot (though I'll admit one or two went in), often leading to a Pistons' break. While I think I was a little hard on him in my post the other day, little man's got some growing up to do.

-Steve Francis just blows my mind. Does he care? Doesn't he? I know he is hurt, and I know this is a bad situation for him. But it seems to me that he is in a position to make some moves over the last six games and maybe improve his trade value, if not convince Isiah to keep him on board. He showed some signs tonite, maybe one or two. But then you get plays like the one that got him ejected. The 14 year olds I coached knew better than to dribble, BACKWARDS mind you, into a corner. I don't even think we'd see that from li'l Nate.

On another note, two great articles from two of my favorite writers in the buisness. Much worth checking out:

Selena Roberts of the NYTimes writes an article that no one intrested in youth sports can afford not to read (http://select.nytimes.com/2007/04/08/sports/08roberts.html). The line between cheating and 'intelligent ballplaying' is thin and morally dubious. Is it cheating to foul a guy in such a way that the refs wont see it? That's been a large part of playing defense for years. Yet it is a case of going outside of the rules. One practice this past year our best post defender asked me to show him "some dirty tricks the refs won't catch." My first instinct was to show him how to tug a jersey as the guy turns, or how to crouch in a way that lets you stick your knee into the offensive player, both tactics that I use in pickup, but it just felt wrong. Definitly an issue worth discussing (so comment!)

Jack McCallum, basketball guru for SI writes a piece about the coaching match between the Mavs' and Suns' staffs leading up to one of their regular season games (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jack_mccallum/04/03/mavs.suns0409/index.html). Very intesresting for any fan. What I took out of the article was that NBA players are so good, when you create a defensive scheme, its really a case of picking your poison. A good example is Devin Harris, a player whom the Suns' staff want to shoot jumpers, is not such a bad shooter, but his penetration skills are so good, the Suns go under screens for him, practically begging him to step back for a jump shot. Coaching in the league must be really difficult.