Detroit vs. Cleveland

Much has happened in the NBA world since my last post, and it certainly appears as though most of America has written off the rest of the playoffs as a farce… which seems to happen every time the Spurs win the title. In the East, the conference finals feature a Detroit team that appears neigh unbeatable (aside from 5 halves in which they forgot how to play basketball). The ‘Stones face off against a coasting Cavs team. During their widely unappreciated series with New Jersey, the Cavs showed stretches where they played some of the best man-to-man defense I’ve seen all year. They remind me of the ’04 Pistons in their great ability to absolutely smother the pick and roll (the similarities stop there). During the regular season, the Pistons walked away with the series, winning three to the Cavs one. The Cavaliers only victory was a closely fought overtime contest in Detroit. It is going to be interesting how the Pistons play James, especially considering that he is the only player on that team who can hurt them. If they go to man, I don’t think any of the Pistons match up well with Bron Bron. Prince might hurt him with his length and quickness, but if Lebron mixes up his game and takes Prince into the post he might create havoc. I fully expect the Pistons to go zone, utilizing Prince in the middle to force James to stay on one side of the floor. On the other end, the Pistons are better equipped to match up with Cleveland’s man-to-man than anyone. Detroit has players able to score at all five positions and they move the ball well enough that each of those five can get looks. Detroit’s strength on offense is that it starts three of the best playmakers in the game (Billups of course, Webber, and the underrated passer, Rasheed Wallace). Last year, Cleveland (and Miami) was able to play off Ben Wallace, but they can’t do that with Webber. If any of Detroit’s players get doubled, they not only have plenty of options of where to pass, they have the ability and desire to make that good pass.

I’d like to call this a sweep in the Pistons’ favor, but time and again, Detroit has displayed a propensity to let down after a amassing a lead in a series. Though they are better than I expected, I still see remnants of the ‘flip-the-switch’ mentality that killed the Pistons last year, and often did them in the regular season this year. Still, if they drop more than one against Cleveland, I will be very surprised. Thus, I pick…

Detroit in 5

Rolling 'stones

The Detroit Pistons are playing like a team on a mission. ESPN’s new morning show reported that they were unhappy about not being included among the league’s elite, and my question is, when did this team stop being one of the NBA’s elites? This is a team that has made the Eastern Conference finals (the NBA’s final four) the last four years in a row. Furthermore, five out of the past six years, Detroit has won the Central Division (the year they missed was 2004, when they won the title) The Spurs might have more championships, but other than them, Detroit is the closest thing to a dynasty the NBA has had in the past five years. Unlike last year’s playoffs, when they made it as far as they did purely on the weakness of the rest of the East, Detroit this year is playing like a champion. The Bulls were hot at the regular season’s end and in the first round, this is a good Chicago team. Apparently they are not good enough. Detroit is defending out of its mind, the Bulls guards are completely unable to figure out Detroit’s vice like zone. On offense, the Pistons starting line up, featuring five legitimate offensive threats, is coming together at just the right time, especially Tayshaun Prince, the best 3 (who plays like a 3) in this round (taking over for Deng last round). Most importantly is the focus Detroit is bringing every single night. According to reports, the Pistons’ players and opponents are citing a new level of intensity as the reason behind the Pistons’ improved play. No kidding. Entering the playoffs I wondered aloud about the Pistons’ ability to turn it on. As the regular season came to a close, they were not playing a high quality of basketball. The Bulls were by far playing like the better team. Seems as though the Pistons have gotten their game together at just the right time. They could win a championship at this clip.

#32, Tri-Captain, Herb Williams

According to the NY Post Herb Williams is interviewing with the Bobcats for a head coaching job. They talk about how Williams has been garnering respect around the league. I am thrilled. Williams, always known as a class act, has been only a gentleman while providing hard work on the coaching staff of a fairly atrocious Knicks franchise. One of the only stable names in the Isiah era, Williams has been a great asset to this chaotic team. I hope Williams gets the head coaching job that he deserves, especially with guys like Doc Rivers out there getting contract extensions.

Western Dominance Manifest

It’s a phenomenon that baffles and upsets many NBA fans, one that is difficult to explain, and difficult to demonstrate, but its also a universally accepted fact: The East is least, the West is best. Since Jordan hung up his sneakers, the NBA has had to struggle with the reality that basketball is just played better in the NBA’s western half. Today, the all-NBA teams were released, and surprise, surprise, not one of the players on the first team plays for an eastern conference squad (Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, and Amare Stoudemire). That’s not surprising, these are the five best players by position in the league right now. What’s surprising to me is how natural it feels. At no point in reading those names did I think, ‘wow, that’s kind of unfair that the east is unrepresented.’ It’s gotten to the point that it is just natural that the best players, and thus the best teams, are all located out west. But wait, you argue, two out of the last three championships were won by teams in the Eastern Conference. True though this may be, it had more than a little to do with the fact that while the Lakers (in 2004) and Mavericks (in 2006) were busy fighting through the Western gauntlet, the East’s elite face little competition in the first round, and often breeze through round two as well. The fact is, the West features more quality teams and players all the way through (well, at least seeds 1-8) whereas the east features duds every year (looking at your Orlando Magic).

Utah D's up Huh?

-Yesterday’s Detroit/Chicago game was painful. Time and again, the Bulls’ post defense, held by me to among the league’s best, got burned by whoever got them down low. In 15 minutes of play, Jason Maxiell had 8 rebounds (lets keep watching this young man), and the Pistons’ starting front line had seven boards each (Rasheed Wallace did it in 18 minutes), all told, the Bulls got out rebounded 51-30, giving up 15 offensive boards. Meanwhile, the Bull’s started in some pathetic half court trap, in an effort to keep the ball out of Billup’s hands in transition. They accomplished that mission, but Tayshaun Prince did an admirable job bring the ball up court, giving it to Billups once the point guard was good and set. All in all, the Pistons were never taken out of their game, and the Bulls never looked like they were ever into it. I wonder if the Bulls are just content, I certainly hope not as I still believe that this team can take it to the finals if they get it together (and if the Pistons start slipping).

-Meanwhile, in Utah, we saw a game of contrasting styles indeed. Don’t let the triple digit score fool you, this game saw a back and forth where some stretches were played up tempo, and during others Utah was able to slow things down a bit. I was really surprised how well Golden State was able to bother Boozer, holding him to 6-15. Though, his 10 offensive rebounds, 20 overall, speak for themselves. I also immediately regret not putting Al Harrington in the scout, I didn’t think he could bounce back from the last series and I was clearly wrong. We are in for another good one involving the Jazz.

Warriors/Jazz

The biggest benefactors of Utah’s game 7 victory over Houston? Well Utah of course. But Golden State was also thanking the basketball gods on Saturday night. While a match up with Houston would have been a nightmare, the Warriors are much better equipped to deal with this smaller Utah squad, and the result is going to be another closely fought series for both teams. There are question marks for each side. How will the Warriors deal with Utah’s big man duo? Dealing with Okur will be like dealing with Nowitzki, and as we’ve seen, the Warriors are well equipped to handle that. What about Boozer? An overlooked low post player for so many years (thanks to injuries), Boozer is coming into his own at just the right time. It is likely that Biedrins will see a lot of time guarding Boozer, and the young Latvian has shown that he is a more than capable defender. However, Boozer is so tough to guard because of he can score so many ways on the low block. With a reliable fade away, a solid dribble, and of course a huge build, Boozer reminds me in a lot of ways as a smaller, quicker, less skilled Tim Duncan. Needless to say, Golden State is going to have their hands filled down low. However, there are match up problems for Utah as well, namely, who is going to stop the ball and guard Baron Davis in transition? The best Utah defenders are their front line (which includes the versatile Kirilenko). But Kirilenko is not quick enough to guard Davis, and will likely be tasked with shutting down Stephen Jackson (a task for which he is very well equipped). Without a proper check, Davis might have free reign in transition, a huge problem for a team that’s trying to slow the tempo and control the pace. Both teams have pretty big issues, but considering the Jazz’s steadiness and the Warriors’ volatile nature, I’m gonna go with the higher seed.

Jazz in 7

Suns/Spurs

The West’s marquee match up for this second round is now even bigger because the Mavs are out of the playoffs (feels kinda weird, doesn’t it?). This is a series that features perhaps the two best teams left in the playoffs, and pits the league’s best grind it out defense against its most efficient up tempo offense. As I talked about when discussing their first round match up with Denver, San-Antonio’s biggest strength is their ability to masterfully control the tempo of a game. Consider the fact that, during the regular season, Phoenix averaged 12 points less than normal against the Spurs. On the individual side, the Spurs defenders have taken most of Phoenix’s big guns off their game. Nash shot 30% from behind the arc against Tony Parker and whatever help the Spurs gave him, a 15% decrease from his season average. Shawn Marion struggles as well, with his FG% dropping to a ghastly 37%. The other member of the Suns big three, Stoudemire, is well recognized for having big games against San Antonio, especially during their last series in 2005 in which he blew up for over 35 a game. People are putting that stat all over the place, neglecting to point out that that series was never competitive. What happens is that when San Antonio slows the game down, the Phoenix offense becomes a pick and roll or two man game with Nash and Stoudemire. So Soudemire gets more touches against the Spurs, but that’s exactly what San Antonio wants. San Antonio is not perfect, this will not be a sweep, though I don’t think it will be so competitive either. Look for San Antonio to steal one on the road early, defend their home court, and pull it out in six.

San Antonio in 6

EDIT: Looking over old posts, I realize that I had first picked the Spurs to win in five. The only reason why I changed it was because to do so would require San Antonio to win two games, including an elimination game five, on the road. I think its more likely they drop two in Phoenix, but take care of business in Texas to send the Suns packing