Monday, April 30, 2007

The Kidd is Back- Did he ever Leave?

In 36 minutes of play Jason Kidd is averaging a triple double during the playoffs, 13 points, 11 rebounds, and a fucking unheard of 13 assists (though Nash is netting 15...). Will he maintain this clip beyond the first round (where I am now convinced the Nets are heading)? Probably not, but these incredible numbers underscore a basic truth of the power and ability of often forgotten Jason Kidd. As I’ve mentioned before, a shooting coach who worked with the Nets during their back to back runs to the finals claimed that Kidd is the best transition point guard this side of Magic Johnson, and I’m not inclined to disagree.

He is not the fastest guard in the league, especially now, at age 34 with two bad knees, but rarely does he make a bad pass when running the break. In the half court, his size allows him to post up smaller guards, and he can speed up in bursts, allowing him to penetrate with ease. Nay-sayers will point out that Kidd never developed a reliable jumper, and that his offensive game can never be complete without it. That is nonsense. True, if Jason Kidd had a jumper we’d be looking at the most complete offensive point guard of the past 15 or so years (going back to the era of Thomas and Johnson), but show me proof that he has struggled without it. Kidd is so good at getting the ball where it needs to go that he can have other people make it rain for him. And, by the way, Kidd shot 34% from three this season, not a terrible number considering his other talents.

Speaking of other talents, what about his defense. I have no scruples about naming Kidd among the most effective defensive point guards in the league. He was never a speedster on D like Gary Patyon (his mentor FYI), but he makes up for it in craftiness and size. At 6-4 and 210, his body and wingspan frustrate opposing guards (2.25 steals a game this series, 2 for his career). And he is immune to larger guards who like to post up (looking at you Baron Davis), pushing back as hard as he gets pushed.

Why the sudden Kidd love? I feel I owe him for doubting him all these years. Back when the Nets were putting the rest of the East to shame, I was never one of the voices calling for his MVP nomination. I always accepted him as the best, but was never a fan. Not sure what the reason was, and it doesn’t matter now. Probably because I was never a Kidd fan, somewhere between 2003 and today I forgot what this man was capable of. No longer. If they can finish off the Raptors, I will pick the Nets to be playing for the Eastern Conference Championship in a few weeks. Besides… I’d rather jump on the bandwagon now rather than in round 2.

Sunday, April 29, 2007

A Tribute to #20

Take your mind back for a moment. It is the summer of 1996, eleven years ago this June, and the best team in Basketball history, the '95-'96 Chicago Bulls are playing in the NBA championship. The Bulls were my Knicks eternal rivals, and naturally, I was rooting for whoever stood in their way… in this instance, the Seattle Supersonics. After he molested the Knicks in the second round, I was also pulling for whoever got the assignment of guarding Michael Jordan, that man was Gary Payton, who would go on to become my favorite player. Though the Bulls would win the first three, and then go on to win game 6 and the championship, Payton’s trademark defense was at its best, he held Jordan to 27 ppg, three below his average. I sat in awe throughout that series. Look at that swagger, that confidence! Look at how hard he works defending the ball (one of the best on-ball defenders of all time). How about that speed, the recklessness with which he penetrates, finishing ably with both right and left hands. And what about the passing, his terrific ability to stop, mid penetration, and make a quick pass to Shawn Kemp on a basket cut or to Detleff for a three. And of course, as my mom said, “he has that weird looking neck.”

Gary Payton was not the best point guard of all time, but he was among them. He captured my imagination as a kid and never let go. I’m eleven years older now, so is he. I have Gary Payton memorabilia coming out of my ass, 13 jerseys, around 100 cards, posters, and one (really cool) action figure. Payton has not had an all star season since around 2002, but I followed him nonetheless, routing for him on the Bucks, the Lakers, the Celtics, and (no!) the Heat. Now, the Heat are out of the playoffs (called it!), and Patyon’s storied career might be over. In that vein, I want to spend some time remembering him and how great of a player he was.

He was not the most memorable player of his generation. John Stockton was a better and more successful point guard, and like every other great player of the mid 90’s he perpetually lived in Michael’s shadow. Still, he is now universally recognized as one of the greatest players of the 90’s, and one of the NBA’s most underrated personalities. Gary was annoying. He didn’t just defend with his size and quickness, he defended with his mouth. There was no better trash talker in the league, no one was more capable of getting inside an opponent’s head than Payton, with his half smile and slightly off-putting northern Californian accent. His jaw was always moving, I’m convinced that he was talking even when we thought he was just chewing gum. Annoying? Sure. Effective? Most definitely.

Payton is a free agent and the rumor is that, having won his championship already, he is not coming back to pro basketball. Not that I blame him. It has been painful to watch his decline. The worst of it was in 2003-2004, when he was with the Lakers and his numbers and happiness dipped. I knew then I would not see the 1996 Payton ever again. His speed went first, no longer could he stay with the fastest player on the opposing team, instead being regulated to guarding the opponent’s shooting guard. His relentless drives to the hole were a thing of the past, Payton struggled to develop a jumper, to no avail. Unable to adapt his game to his age, Patyon’s minutes and usefulness decreased. What never changed was his fire, his desire to win, and his will to work as hard as he needed to get there.

I can’t say much is going to change without Payton. I’m going to miss his presence, but he hasn’t been the same for four years. I’ve found new players to idolize, Richard Hamilton, Shane Battier, and Tim Duncan come to mind, but no one player so captivated me and inflicted my love of basketball as the glove.

Because people seem to forget how good he was. Below are the numbers from Payton’s best season, 99-00, numbers that could have won him MVP and show exactly how spectacular this player used to be:

24.2 ppg; 49% fg; 8.9 apg; 6.4 rpg; 1.9 spg


Thanks for the memories Gary

Saturday, April 28, 2007

'Hang Tough-' from New Kids on the Block to the Orlando Magic

As I sit here watching the second quarter of game 4 between the Magic and the Pistons, I keep hearing the New Kids' classic 'hang tough' in the back of my head. The Magic are playing the way they should be, doing a number of things that I've been waiting to see from this lineup:
-Darko is doing an admirable job catching in the high post and making the quick pass out.
-J.J Redick, while still waiting for his first bucket, is doing a good job making the right decision coming off screens. Rather than forcing up shots, he is waiting for the Pistons defenders to commit to him before passing and forcing the defense to adjust. He is doing what a good shooter should do-- keeping the defense honest.
-Trevor Ariza (my former favorite Knick) is defending the way everyone knows he can. He is using his unique combination of power, speed, and wingspan to keep Billups out of the lane. Seriously, look at this guy when his arms are spread, it looks so bizarre to see those huge things protruding from his body.

Remember how I wondered aloud whether the Pistons had the focus to maintain their play for a full series? I think we are seeing a fairly unmotivated Pistons team. They might lose this game... its time for Flip Saunders to rally his team, if he can.

EDIT: It's now three minutes later, Detroit is on a 9-0 run, and as Steve Kerr just pointed out, they just "flipped the switch." Of course, Carlos Delfino's energy doesn't hurt either.

Can we talk about how little effort Darko brings to the defensive end? Delfino just ran right by him and scored off a pass. I guess you could say it was a back door cut, but I don't think it even counts as a back door cut because Darko was never caught looking in the wrong direction, he just stood to watch Delfino as he cut to the hoop.

EDIT: Looks like that's a wrap for Detroit/Orlando. Glad to see that the Magic made a game out of it though. I expect big things from Orlando next year. For now though I wonder whether my reservations about Detroit are appropriate. Either we are dealing with a team that sometimes cares and sometimes doesn’t bring it, or Detroit has reached a level seen by Shaq’s Lakers and the Spurs, a level where a team can just ‘flip the switch,’ as we’ve already talked about. This is the level of professionalism that the Heat thought they had reached this season, only to find that their switch suddenly wasn’t working. Whether Detroit can continue its on and off energy level will be seen next round in their series with Chicago.

Friday, April 27, 2007

60 Point Halves, Parity, and More

Didn't get to watch the Bulls or the Nets roll tonite (my housemates outvoted me in favor of watching Redsox/Yankees), and its a shame. I am now officially in awe of Jason Kidd, despite multiple knee surgeries and despite me losing faith in his durability, he is showing that he deserves to be mentioned as one of the best clutch players of all time (in addition to being among the top 10 point guards of all time and the top 2 transition point guards of all time). The Nets are playing out of their minds right now, and if they can close out the Raptors, I think they stand a good chance of 'upsetting' the overrated (and overseeded) Cavs.

I now regret claiming that the Heat would take the Bulls to seven games, its as if I bought into the Heat hype as much as everyone else. Still, I reiterate, this Heat team is just not very good.

Meanwhile, we are about to enter the fourth quarter of a Golden State route. A few observations:
-Rarely have I seen a good, right handed, seven footer look as lost in low post as Dirk does right now. He's not doing too badly (7/15 shooting right now), but Stephen Jackson and the rest of the Warriors have done a terrific job keeping out of the middle of the floor where he is most deadly, forcing him to either low post where it is more difficult to get off a shot. I wonder why more teams haven't utilized such a tactic over the course of the season.

-After every made basket in the first half (where they scored 60) the Warriors, if undetered by full court pressure, throw a long pass to around midcourt. They break on plays were they don't even have numbers. For every moment of every game, all five players on the court are thinking three things: 'run, run, and run some more.'

-The Warriors are not a good defensive team personell wise, but they are a smart team defensivly, defending Nowitzki effectivly and taking the Mavs out of their desired offensive schemes.

-I, like the good folks at ESPN, am starting to think upset, and what that would mean for this Mavs team. I'm pretty sure the only thing more dissapointing than losing a 2-0 finals lead is to be the best team in the regular season, only to have it all unravel in the first round. Furthermore, think about what would happen if both the Heat and Mavs lose in the first round. I can't remember the last time both confrences were without their champions in round two (the last champion to keep its team intact and lose in round one were the 99-00 Spurs who were without Tim Duncan). This speaks volumes about the level of parity attained by the NBA in the past decade. Between 1989 and 2002, only five teams won titles, with the Bulls taking six, the Lakers taking three, the Pistons and Rockets taking two each, and the Spurs taking one. Yet, in the years from 2003 to today, we have already seen three teams win titles, with only the Spurs taking more than one. I think that this is great. If the Mavs get eliminated, that leaves, I think, five teams with realistic shots at winning the title (Spurs, Pistons, Bulls, Suns, Rockets). I love it, I love that you can't pick a champion for sure, you really get the sense that anyone can win.

-Finally, Jason Richardson does more than jump high, his shot is deadly, keeping defenses honest. And with his athleticism and explosivness, he is capable of getting to the rim on drives. Baron Davis is the best player on this Warriors team, but Richardson has gone from being a mindless scorers to a perfect fit for a well oiled Warriors machine.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

I Live for Spurs/Nuggets

SA 19, DEN 12- Three minutes left in the First quarter and the Spurs are defending out of their minds. They are demonstrating their masterful ability to control the tempo off every Denver turnover. Parker is looking to push but is also quick to bring the ball out and reset. Furthermore, the Spurs, aparently readers of this blog, have been utilizing Duncan more on the high post, using his explosivness and passing abilities to take Nene off his defensive game. The Nuggets are getting nothing easy and things look good right now for San Antonio.

If nothing else this game showed that Denver needs to be included in discussions of the West's elite teams. The Nugget's interior defense was fantastic in initiating a fourth quarter comeback. Still, the Spurs did what the Spurs do best, controling the tempo for most of the night and utilizing Duncan and Parker's offensive versitility to keep the Nuggets defense guessing. Frankly, other than during Denver's end of the game run, the Spurs looked masterful.

Now we are witnessing Golden State's relentless offensive game. Dallas is within four as of the end of the first, but GS has completly controlled the tempo. Dallas doesn't have to start worrying yet, but looking ahead, I'm not sure Dallas can win four at this speed.

The 3rd quarter is over and clearly I was wrong. Dallas not only produced a 30 point quarter of its own, it did it while holding Golden State to 22. Dallas made it to the finals last year with its versatility, and its showing it again tonight.

First Round Dominance

Did you catch a look at Kobe Bryant's face at all last night? Did you see the frustration in his eyes every time he turned the ball over or missed one of his forced up fade aways? Didn't he resemble that guy in pickup games who knows he can do better but consistantly gets flustered into making a mistake? Kobe's face was one that I, and all amature ballers like me know all too well, it was the face of a guy who is overmatched, a guy unable to do what he knows he needs to do in order to win. Forget their offense last night (well, forget it for a minute), the Phoenix Suns, as a team, played some of the best defense I've seen from them, and they used it to control the game, almost from begining to end. Early in the broadcast, Craig Sager reported that Dantoni was going to use a different set of schemes on Bryant. The ever impressive Raja Bell remained Kobe's primary defender, but his perimeter and weak side help defenders played off their men enough for a consistant barrage of double teams. No matter where he recieved the ball, whether he brought it up the court or whether the Lakers ran him off screens, Kobe was hounded by two or more Suns' defenders. I give the Suns a raw deal sometimes, partially because I don't believe they are as good a playoff team as the Spurs and Mavs are. Still, when they play well, the Suns are among the NBA's elite, and they showed that last night. I'm not sure the Lakers can take a game off them the way they're playing, and sweaping the Lakers would leave them fresh for San-Antonio (assuming that they make it past Denver).

Many people expceted Phoenix to dominate in the first round, few expected that result from Chicago. Because they are matched up with the defending champs, pundits (including myself) and experts everywhere imagined that this 4/5 matchup (which is really a 3/5 matchup) would be a dogfight. The fact is, we were all fooled by the myth that superstars can turn bad teams into good teams overnight. Miami never played up to the level they demonstrated during the '05-'06 season. A large part of that was due to injuries, but part of it stems from the fact that Miami's pieces are getting old, and its young guns' growth (Kopono, Haslem, and Posey) have been marginalized by a system that revolves around two players. Miami is not in Chicago's league, that was evident in game 1, where Chicago pulled out a victory despite playing their worst game in months, and it became painfully clear by the buzzer of game 2. When Chicago buckled down, they prevented the Heat from getting the looks they wanted, and then ran the ball down their throats. Chicago is an elite team in the East, part of a tier that I think includes only them and Detroit. Miami is a playoff team, but the stars are no longer aligned for them, a championship is too much to hope for, especially when they had the luck of being matched up with the beast of the east in round 1. I'm not going to predict a sweap now, though I wouldn't be surprised, I will say,however, that these two games have demonstrated how overrated Miami really is.

Finally, I wish the NBA would throw me a bone and let me watch some of the Toronto/NJN series, because that looks like its the best (only?) series in the east right now.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I must prepare myself for a night of terrific bball.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

National Pride?

This week, Fabricio Oberto, Walter Herrmann, and Manu Ginobili announced that they will not play for the Argintine national team this summer, though they did say that they would play in 2008's Olympics. I find this story just a bit unsettling. Over the past four plus years many NBA player's are scolded for forgoing international compition during the summer. Now, Argentina, who fields perhaps the world's finest team, is faling victim to the same phenominon. This, however, seems to only be an American thing. I doubt many pros from the European leagues fail to join their national team. Yet the NBA's players, for whatever reason, seem to be starting a trend of opting against major compitition in the summer, resulting perhaps from the NBA's corporate culture.

In the NBA, rewards are high, but are risks. If you are making millions of dollars playing basketball, you also stand to lose millions of dollars if you get hurt and are unable to continue your career. In Europe there are so many teams and so many different professional levels, it is easier to lose your first step but keep your professional career alive. In Europe, a player on a terrific sqad could get hurt and have their abilities deminished, but there are more teams there, and thus a larger market for talent. In America the NBA is enroute to monopolizing minor leagues with its D-League, taking buisness away from 'minor' leagues such as USBL and ABA (2000). This contributes to the fact that 'minor' league European teams are less far away form 'minor' league American teams, where, other than the NBDL, the drop off in play, pay, and prestige is high. Therefore, NBA players are more likely to be conservative in the off season, because the cost of failure is high. This, I think, is why players in America are begining to skip the smaller international matches.

This is an American phonomion, borne out of the incredible amounts of corporate control that exist over all American professional basketball. Because of this, I expect to see other Eurupean players playing here to start taking their summers off.

Monday, April 23, 2007

Why the Mavs should worry less and why the Spurs should worry more

I'm a Spurs fan... there, I said it. I'm upset that they lost last night, depite the well recited factoid that they have lost their first playoff game for the past couple of years. Still, much of what I saw last night gives me, and Spurs fans all over, reason to panic.

First of all, Denver was able to get 95 points on the Spurs defense, but not only did they outscore the supposed masters of tempo control, they outdefended them as well. For much of the night, Duncan, and everyone else in black and white seemed unable to get off solid shots. On the other end, the Spurs could not put a stop to Iverson and Anthony's abilities to take it inside. This is both surprising and upsetting, seeing as how much of the Spurs defense is predicated on Bowen's toughness and Ginobli's speed, which are supposed to keep dribble penetration to a minimum. Denver seemed capable of pushing the tempo at times and slowing it down when they needed it, San Antonio rarely looked like they were in control, and without their ability to force teams to play their style, I don't think the spurs have much going for them.

Scarier than both of those were the way that Nene was able to bully Tim Duncan. I have long believed that Nene is an underated defender, but I had no idea just how good he was. With Camby intimidating would be dribblers, the Spurs best bet was to get the ball to Duncan and let him go to work. Duncan shot 7/17 and at times looked frustrated against Nene's defense. At other times, the Spurs used Duncan as a point forward, giving him the ball high and allowing him to make plays. This was when the team looked their best, and Duncan is certianly capable enough (7 assists last night), but Duncan is not Chris Webber, it is good to post him up high sometimes to distribute, but in general, he belongs on the block with his back to the basket. What I'm hoping is that Duncan finds a way to use his faceup game more. He has the skill to get by Nene off the dribble, but with Camby's presence on help, taking Nene off the dribble might be risky. In general, the Spurs showed that the Nuggets are more than capable of giving them fits. Pop and his soldiers are in need of adjustment. Perhaps we need to see the ball in Ginobili's hands more, allowing him to push the tempo before Camby and Nene are able to get set. The spurs are a better than averege running sqad, with Parker and Ginobili, alongside Brent Barry and Finley who can spread the defense. Eitherway, something needs to be done or the Spurs will be fishing with alot of questions to answer.


The Mavs' loss is the one more people are talking about, yet it was the upset that has been predicted over and over the past few weeks. I did expect Dallas to lose one or two to GS, but not this soon and not this bad. Still, I think the Mavs have more positives to take out of this game than does San-Antonio. As Hollinger and others have pointed out (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2007/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2846252), Avery Johnson might have over-adjusted his lineup to match up with Golden State. Dirk just doesn't look comfortable when he plays the 5. I, like Hollinger, think that Dallas should focus more on playing its game. They are a much better team, they need to force Golden State to match up with them.

All told, last night was a very exciting first Sunday night of playoff basketball, but no one has been eliminated yet. While both Texas giants should be sweating, it is much to early to start talking about historically unprecidented upsets.

Sunday, April 22, 2007

Welcome to NBA Playoff Sunday

-On the topic of the officiating debate: People are worried that we are witnessing a rift between league office, refs, and players. To this I ask, where have you been the last decade? The NBA has long been conflicted between the desire to placate an audience that wants to see players play, and the knowledge that if it doesn't stand by its refs, the league would suffer from instant credibility loss. David Stern and his refs have always had a strange dynamic for a number of reasons. First of all, as much as I hate the way the NBA fines anyone who says anything about its beloved officiating, I do understand the compulsion behind it. Could you imagine of Stern and his gang DIDN'T stand by his refs? That would give players, fans, and coaches everywhere license to question every call. This would result in a huge credibility gap because of all the criticism that would be going around the league. To fix this, Stern has done much more than just fine everyone with a negative talking point, he has, I believe, sent the message to major sports outlets to depict the refs in a new light. Think back on all the nationally televised games this past season. It seems to me that more time has been spent talking about the refs, reminding viewers that they have histories, families, and a contribution to the game. Even before the Crawford incident, I have distinct memories of Mike Breen (et al) not just running down the list of refs but telling us a bit about each one. I don't think this has happened in any other year. Is it too much of a stretch to argue that NBA league officials have sent the message to media outlets to let fans know how important refs are? I think Stern is really scared of what would happen with hoards of unabashed critics, and thus he is using all of his tools to ensure that that doesn't happen. The second strange thing about the NBA and its refs is the way that Stern uses the in-game tendencies of the refs to try and change the image of the game. Before the season began, Stern gave his refs license to T up anything that walks. What Stern is doing is try to cut down on notion that his players are whiney primadonnas, and to do this, he is attempting to manipulate the way the games are called.

-How awesome would it be to see the Wiz pull off a first round upset? I’ve never seen so many people (with good reason) counting a team out in the first round. This would be huge… Huge I say!

Saturday, April 21, 2007

Magic/Pistons

-Looks like Proffessor Hubie Brown will be calling the game. I love this man, best color commentator I've seen. People complain that he talks too much, taking away from the sub-par Mike Tirico, but I would rather have a discertation on defending the pick and roll than having to listen to Tirico's bad jokes and incorrect observations.

-I think the way the first quarter goes will say a lot about how the series is going to go. Which Pistons are we going to see? When they are focused and intense, Detroit can beat anyone with their brtual efficiancy. However, I haven't seen that team in almost two months. Detroit is picked as the heaviest favorite in this first round, are they just going to stay rolling on cruise control? If so, look for Orlando to put some pressure on them early. EDIT: As of midway through the second, with Detroit up 12, I think we can safely say that the killer instinct is back. Detroit is playing like a group of professionals, setting the right screens, making the right passes, and taking the right shots. This game is not as close as the score belies.

-Dwight Howard in the First quarter: Orlando is attacking inside early. Not surprising because of how poor their offence is everywhere else. The Pistons doubled on Howard this first time out which is surprising because they didn't do much of that in the regular season. I know the Stones started Rasheed on Howard, but Webber seems to be getting caught on him. Dwight will dominate that matchup, and even Sheed will have his work cut out for him. Like I said last week, Howard is going to make a name for himself over the next 4/5 games. Look at how hard he is playing, if I may quote Hubie, "He is a monster on the offensive glass."

-I like how the Magic put Hill on Billups, Nelson is too small for him. Still, I don't see Rip missing many shots with Nelson's short wingspan. Nelson is getting caught up in those staggard screens for Hamelton, why is he trailing? If I were the Magic I'd tell Jameer to cheat a bit under some of those and cut him off, otherwise Hamelton is going to get 30 or more.

-D WINS GAMES: Kudos to Detroit's transition D, Orlando is trying to run and getting nothing out of it. On the flip side, Orlando's defense is horrific. Detroit has 15 points in 3 minutes and looks like they aren't even trying. Tony Battie is geting pulvarized by the aging Rasheed Wallace. He's getting points off the pick and pop, and to some degree Orlando is going to live with those. What can't happen is Battie allowing himself to get burned on simple step back moves in the post. Wallace hasn't been a great low post scorer in three years, they shouldn't have to double him. Finally, the Magic go to a zone, forcing the ball out of hte middle and into the hands of Prince and Hamilton who have trouble creating their own shot against swarming Defenses.

-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4UCq_Wf6wk Great time-out material!

Watching Bulls/Heat

-Thabo Sefolosha is doing such a good job on Wade. That length is giving Dwayne trouble, but I'm legitiamtly surprised to see his speed keeping up with #3... as I type, Sefolosha forces Wayne right into Nocioni- charging foul. Wade isn't exaclty having his way with Hienrich, but he's having a much easier time getting shots off. I think the 6-7 Sefolosha is just too lanky and long for the 6-4 Wade.

-Shaq got off to such a good start, I jumped on the 'Ben Wallace has lost it' bandwagon halfway into the second. Seriously though, Ben Wallace has some gift to defend Shaq the way he does. How do you push an object that big off the low block? I'm sure that someone, somwhere has written this, but forcing Shaq to a right hand hookshot is the only way to stop from scoring on the left side, even at his age he has suck a quick spin going baseline, one of the best in the L right now.

-Tyrus Thomas jumps high. Seriously, he's comming over so quickly with such good timing that he's effecting every shot taken in the lane. Payton just lost a pass out of bounds, try to make that pass with Thomas' wingspan blocking your vision like that. If I were the heat, I'd throw it to Morning and take it to Thomas that way. Let's see how the Heat adjust in the fourth quarter, they are getting no offence from anyone besides Antoine Walker's shooting. I'm starting to think that thats the best way to beat the champs, make Toine jack it from outside.

-Teams shooting a combined 8-31 from 3... ugly, ugly fourth quarter so far.

-I can't say im surprised at this outcome (a closly fought Bulls win), but I don't understand why people view this as an upset. Every season is new, and if you look at both these teams and how they played this past season, you would see that the Bulls are just a suprior squad. People say that their lack of inside scoring will hurt them, but I've waited all season and haven't seen it.

Texas Domination

Western Confrence Preview- streamlined version

1. Dallas vs. 8. Golden State: Dallas in 5. Believe the hype, GS is good, but not good enough.
2. Phoenix vs. 7. LA Lakers: Phoenix in 5. Lakers are stone cold, we will not see a repeat of last year.
3. San-Antonio vs. 6. Denver: San-Antonio in 6. Spurs don't lose in the first round, espeically not against a running team.
4. Houston vs. 5. Utah: Houston in 7. This will be a great series for defense lovers.

Second round:
1. Dallas vs. 4. Houston: Dallas in 7. This series will be more competitive than people think.
2. Phoenix vs. 3. San-Antonio: San-Antonio in 5. No one will be surprised when San-Antonio wins, they'll be surprised when the see how quickly


Finals:

1. Dallas vs. 3. San-Antonio: San-Antonio in 7. I can't vote against the Spurs, but this could go either way.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Eastern Confrence Playoff Predictions

First round:

1. Detroit vs. 8. Orlando
Pistons in 5
Orlando wins my award for most disappointing team in the NBA. Now they find themselves in a no win situation against the Pistons. Detroit won the season series 4-0, and I see very little reason for them not to sweep. The only thing that might hurt the Pistons is their tendency to play down to the competition. Hopefully this will subside come playoff time, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they come out flat and allow the Magic to steal a game. Look for Howard to have a big series no matter the outcome; he averaged 21 and 14 against Detroit during the regular season


2. Cleveland vs. 7. Washington
Cleveland in 4
This was the rematch everyone wanted, but unfortunately for fans world wide, the Wizards just don’t have the weapons to get it done. This was the only match up that I didn’t look at the numbers for. That said, I expect some of the games to be close. Washington has been playing some good ball since Arenas went down, losing five of their games in April by less than 10 points. Antonio Daniels and Deshawn Stevenson have been playing good ball and will do their best to keep it close. In the end, Washington just doesn’t have the weapons to get the job done.

3. Toronto vs. 6. New Jersey
Toronto in 6
Home court means everything in this match up. During the regular season, the home team won every game, with Carter being fairly terrible in both games in Toronto. He shot a combined 9-32 in the two games in Toronto, though he was good for ten assists in the second one. New Jersey has been playing some very good ball lately, but I think Toronto makes for some match up problems. While Chris Bosh has struggled a bit against the Nets’ front line (17 and 7), I don’t think Jason Kidd has the speed to keep up with Ford in a 7 game series. Toronto has the ability to push the tempo, and while New Jersey is a good running team in general, Carter’s game is better suited for the half court.
EDIT: I'm very surprised that most of the online sports world disagrees with me here.

4. Miami vs. 5. Chicago (Chicago has home court)
Chicago in 7
The biggest loser tonight, other than Chicago (who dropped from 2 to 5), was Miami. I think Miami matches up much better against Cleveland, they would have won that series. Chicago has the best low post defense in the East, and they will do a very good job on Shaq. The only game the Bulls lost this season was an utter blow out (103-70) in which they had 20 turnovers and shot 35%. This will not happen night in and night out. Wade is Wade, and will be good for a few wins, but I still think Chicago is the hottest team in the East and will be too tough for this very good Miami team.
EDIT: I am not surprised that the majority of the online sports world disagrees with me here.

Second Round:
1. Detroit vs. 5. Chicago: Detroit in 7
(I should say that I still believe that this series could go either way. I give it to Detroit simply because Chicago will be comming off a much more difficult series and Detroit is better equiped to go a full 7 games.)

2. Cleveland vs. 3. Toronto: Cleveland in 6

Finals: 1. Detroit vs. 2. Cleveland: Detroit in 7


These are my predictions as I see them. When the first round ends, I'll revaluate these and provide full analysis for the second round.

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Yesterday

I want to send condolences out to all of the families and the students involved in yesterday's shooting at VT. Over the next few days pundits everywhere are going to spin this story for agendas, be it gun control, video games, the role of football in a school community (heard it on ESPN's Cold Pizza this morning). The bottom line is that this was one of the worst events in US history, and there is nothing that anyone can say about it that will change that. I'm not going to comment because it's not my place, and like Columbine eight years ago, this story is too much of a tragedy for any words to mean much.

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Why I'm Psyched for the Western Confrence Playoffs

The East is very top heavy in that the top five teams (Pistons, Bulls, Cavs, Raptors, and Heat) are far beyond the bottom three, as a result, I don't think we are going to see such a great first round out East. That's why my preview of the Eastern Confrence Playoffs (below) focuses on the second round. In the West, however, there are some good matchups out there from the get go. Unfortunately for them, Denver just sealed up the sixth seed, earning them a date with the Spurs (most likely). I truly think that Denver could have, and might have, upset the Suns. But against the Spurs, who are the NBA's best at shutting down running teams, I'm not sure they can win a game.

I'm praying that Golden State catches the Clippers and the lakers fall out. I think a Clippers/Suns series would be good, but I'm really looking forward to a match between Dallas and Golden State. Don Nelson has always done a good job coaching against his former teams, and I think GS's high paced offence can give Dallas fits. I don't expect an upset, but I wouldn't be surprised if it takes Dallas six games to get it.

If the Lakers do play the Suns, we've got a rematch of what ended up being a good series last year. However, I don't see the Lakers playing the calibre of ball they were at this time last season. Raja Bell does a better job on Kobe than 90% of the league. That said, if the Lakers can get it together, their big front line has what it takes to give the Suns trouble at times. We've already seen that this matchup can be a good one, but it depends on how well Phil Jackson can rally the troops.

Finally, we have Houston/Utah, which I think is going to be a grind it out battle between the two of the most overlooked teams in the NBA. When it comes down to it, I think Houston is going to be too much defense for the already suspect Jazz offense, but if the Jazz take the series, no one will be surprised, least of all me.

For the second round, all eyes are going to be on San Antonio and Phoenix, but I'm not sure Phoenix is capable of taking three games off the Spurs, who are should be called the Maestros because they are so good at controling tempo. Much more fun to me will be the Houston/Dallas match, featuring two of the best hard nosed, defensive minded coaches in the NBA. Van Gundy and Johnson imbue their teams with a toughness that alot of teams lack. I expect this series to be hard fouht. I'm not sure Houston has what it takes to get it to six or seven, but they might. And whatever games there are will be highly entertaining contests.

Finally, we're going to have Dallas/San Antonio in the matchup that everybody wants to see. Last year's series was one of the best playoff matchups I've ever seen, I can't imagine that this year can be better, but basketball fans around the world are praying.

All in all, I think we are in store for a great couple of months of playoff basketball. Once the seedings are solidified I'll post my formal predictions.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Why I'm psyched for the eastern confrence playoffs

We're not talking about the Knicks game tonite beyond saying this, in the last two games I've seen them play, against the Nets and then tonite, Chicago is playing like a team on a mission. I cannot say the same thing, right now, about the Pistons.

The way things are in the East today, the Pistons would play Miami in round two, with Miami at the four seed and Chicago at the two seed. Meanwhile, on the other side of the bracket would be Chicago and Toronto. If these are indeed the two second round series, I think NBA fans are in for a treat. Right now, I would have to say that Chicago is playing the best ball in the conference. That said, however, I think the conference is the Pistons' to lose. Still, would anyone be surprised if Miami made it right back to the finals? I doubt it. But what about Toronto? I picked this team to win the Atlantic in the pre-season, but I had no clue that Chris Bosh and his European teammates would come along so quickly. So fans would be flipping between a rematch of last year's semi-finals, in which the Heat would face their biggest test of the season (was the Shaq-inspired run a fluke? Is Wade going to rejoin the team in good enough shape to run with the stones?), and seeing big man Bosh taking on the best low post defense in the league.

In other words, ladies and gentlemen, we are positioned right now for the best East second round since 2001 (remember that Bucks/Hornets series? That was a great seven game match, surpassed only by Iverson and Carter's personal game of 'can you top this' in that 76ers/Raptors match).

As good as last year's tourney was, I'm starting to get really excited for the next couple of months.


By the way, if I had to pick, it would be Detroit and Chicago battling in a series that might be the best of them all...

Monday, April 9, 2007

Knicks...

Playoff hopes are dwindling, but I would expect no less from a team that gave Kelvin Cato big 4th quarter minutes tonite. Some observations:

-Well, after jumping on the Mardy bandwagon yesterday, I had to grimace along with Mike Breen when Collins over dribbled, making a pass to Curry too late and comitting the turnover that started Detroit's fatal run.

-I gotta say I like the wierd zone the Knicks threw at the Pistons during the second quarter. Not sure how to describe it. Clyde called it a 2-1-2, which I guess it was, but really it was a 2-3 that kinda morphed into a 3-2 as the middle guy down low would slide up. While a 2-3 zone puts you in good position to double down in the low post, this defense was designed, I assume, to double Webber/Wallace on the high post, where they create havok with their terrific passing skills. I liked it, and I think it vexed the Pistons a bit.

-I love Pistons basketball. Aside from maybe San Antonio and Dallas, no team looks as professional as the Pistons, always seeming to be able to get off the shot they want when they want it. Tonite though it looked like they just arrived after hotboxing the team bus. True, they are looking forward to the playoffs, but until the end there, this was a wholly different team. I will say though that the Knicks defense (*cough* Mardy Collins *cough*) helped.

-Nate Robinson showed once again how dangerous a scorer he is capable of being. Still, I counted along with Breen (best play-by-play guy in the game FYI) around 5-7 instances where he just threw up a bad shot (though I'll admit one or two went in), often leading to a Pistons' break. While I think I was a little hard on him in my post the other day, little man's got some growing up to do.

-Steve Francis just blows my mind. Does he care? Doesn't he? I know he is hurt, and I know this is a bad situation for him. But it seems to me that he is in a position to make some moves over the last six games and maybe improve his trade value, if not convince Isiah to keep him on board. He showed some signs tonite, maybe one or two. But then you get plays like the one that got him ejected. The 14 year olds I coached knew better than to dribble, BACKWARDS mind you, into a corner. I don't even think we'd see that from li'l Nate.

On another note, two great articles from two of my favorite writers in the buisness. Much worth checking out:

Selena Roberts of the NYTimes writes an article that no one intrested in youth sports can afford not to read (http://select.nytimes.com/2007/04/08/sports/08roberts.html). The line between cheating and 'intelligent ballplaying' is thin and morally dubious. Is it cheating to foul a guy in such a way that the refs wont see it? That's been a large part of playing defense for years. Yet it is a case of going outside of the rules. One practice this past year our best post defender asked me to show him "some dirty tricks the refs won't catch." My first instinct was to show him how to tug a jersey as the guy turns, or how to crouch in a way that lets you stick your knee into the offensive player, both tactics that I use in pickup, but it just felt wrong. Definitly an issue worth discussing (so comment!)

Jack McCallum, basketball guru for SI writes a piece about the coaching match between the Mavs' and Suns' staffs leading up to one of their regular season games (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jack_mccallum/04/03/mavs.suns0409/index.html). Very intesresting for any fan. What I took out of the article was that NBA players are so good, when you create a defensive scheme, its really a case of picking your poison. A good example is Devin Harris, a player whom the Suns' staff want to shoot jumpers, is not such a bad shooter, but his penetration skills are so good, the Suns go under screens for him, practically begging him to step back for a jump shot. Coaching in the league must be really difficult.

Whose Your MVP?

I realize this might open up a can of worms, but I can't remember an MVP race where so many people are so unsure of who to pick. Someone has to win it, just like somone has to win the Eastern Confrence, but the makeup of candidates this year is hardly as clear cut as in years past. This is not the year 2000, where Shaq's dominance overrode everyone else's season. Nor do we have a situation like 1997 or 1998 where it was clear that Karl Malone and Michael Jordan were playing basketball at a level unlike anyone else in the universe. Nor does this year resemble last year's MVP race where there was a legitimate debate between those arguing for the scoring kings (Lebron and Kobe [and Gilbert?]) and those arguing for the more complete (offensive) statistics (Steve Nash) (though as we will see, I believe that Dirk was the true MVP last year). In those years there was an MVP tier, sometimes occupied by a single player, sometimes by two, and sometimes by many players for many different reasons. This year? I don't see anyone playing at a level so high that he just blows everyone else out of the water.

Most people are saying that the race is between Nash and Nowitzki, and this is likely the case. Those are the two best players on the two best teams and they are both having great seasons.

Dirk makes for an interseting case. I believed then, and still believe, that Dirk was last year's MVP, but because his scoring paled in comparison to Kobe's, and because he didn't have history on his side like Nash, he mostly got left out of consideration. This year, his scoring is down two points, but otherwise his stats are the same. If his stats weren't impressive enough last year (and I think they should have been), then you cannot argue that they are good enough this year. What Dirk has on his side is the best record in the NBA, the idea being that the best player on the best team has a certain right to the trophy. People make this argument every year, but how often is it the case? Every time the best player from the best team won MVP in recent history (Jordan in '96 and '98, Shaq in '00, Duncan in '03), they also hadthe benifit of truly being among the most dominant players in the league. Looking at the list of NBA MVP's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Valuable_Player_Award) I see no case in recent history when a player won it simply because of regular season success. Certianlly, team quality counts for something. The MVP doesn't, and shouldn't go to a player on a bad team (which is why #24 is absent in this discussion). But while team quality is always a factor, I don't think it is ever the factor in determining the NBA's MVP.

So what does Dirk have on his side? He is among the few players in the league (along with Shaq, Kobe, Duncan, and Garnet, and Arenas) who have displayed flashes of dominance that the MVPs of old possessed. Of the two main candidates, I think Dirk is the one who most fits the profile of dominance I outlined above. This, not the Mavs record, is what I believe the German has going for him. Dirk's offensive (and newly found defensive) abilities take over games much in the same fashion as Iverson did in 2001 or Garnett did in 2003. The difference between Dirk this year and those players in those years is that Dirk is not always the man on the court like they were, his team's offense doesn't always run through him. Still, 9 times out of 10, when he needs to, Dirk can provide moments of uber ball.

Nash's numbers are for the most part simliar to last year's, he's avereging one more assist, shooting slightly better from the field and slightly less well from the line. In general, though, the numbers are where they were the year before. Though I would argue that Nash is still getting better, the jump between last year and this year is not nearly as great as the jump between '05 and '06. Nash is having an MVP type season, yet for his supporters/detractors, the arguments have gone far beyond who is the best.
Scoop Jackson (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=jackson/070409) wants to aruge that Nash shouldn't win it for history's sake. I think that is garbage. The MVP is the MVP, let history sort itself out later. If the MVP truly means most valuble player, then Nash deserves the award as much as anyone. Numbers aside, no one is more important to the way his team functions as Nash. But I'm not sure 'valuable' is always the operative word in the voting process. As I've mentioned above, when I look back on recent MVPs, I picture figures who dominated the basketball realm. Much like the way Jordan did, or the great MVP centers of the past fifteen years (Hakeem, Robinson, Shaq). Duncan and Garnett were another pair whose numbers and game changing proformances were just so mind blowing, they practically took the award for themselves. I would argue that no matter what the pundits say, it is this sense of dominance that voters most look to when choosing the MVP. And the fact is, despite a handful of players who have moments of such dominance (like Dirk), I don't see a single player who has maintained that level of play for the entire season. If I am right, and the MVP is largly determined by a player's domination over the rest of the league, then I think we are witnessing a dearth of candidates.

Most of the league's best teams (including the Spurs, Mavs, Suns, Raptors, Pistons, Bulls, and Jazz) play truly unselfish ball. Some of those teams have a universally acknowledged "best player," (Duncan, Dirk, Nash, Bosh), but none of them have one guy who is 'the man' night in and night out. Why is this? I'm not sure and its certianly a question worth thinking about. But what this means is that when the media votes on its MVP this year, it will have to use a different paradigm than in years past.

So whose my MVP? Lets split the trophy in two and send half to Canada and half to Deutchland.

Sunday, April 8, 2007

Too little too Nate

Knicks won a game last night, but its too late for them, I'm already thinking of next year and the future of the franchise.

No, not Nate Robinson.

Robinson is good, but hes a novelty act. Hes a small guard who can get a good shot off at will, but they don't always go in. With his jumping ability, his step back moves create enough space to get off a shot anywhere on the floor. He is quick enough off the dribble to get to the hoop almost at will. While Robinson's ability to make a good shot out of nothing is a skill that few have, he is separated from the NBAs great scoring guards (Kobe, Lebron, Ray Allen, among others) by the fact that he lacks the size and strength to make those shots look routine. But thats not Robinson's problem.

Robinson's problem is that big ass head of his. He might be one of the worst decision makers among NBA guards. Over the course of the last few weeks, he has had the ball in his hands often during the final seconds of a big game, and why shouldn't he? His handle is good enough to play keep away for a good amount of the shot clock. Robinson, however, forces himself into turnovers and wasted possessions. He is the sort of player who hits two shots in a row and then jacks up a 25 footer because he can. He dribbles into two defenders, jumps, and then tries to pass, rather than using his ball handling ability to dribble in and then out. (Incidentally, Steve Nash does the opposite and it is my favorite thing about Steve Nash's game, if he penetrates and doesn't have a good angle to make a pass, rather than jumping to pass, he takes a dribble or two backwards to get the angle he needs) Robinson makes bad passes in transition as well, did anyone else see his pass to nobody on a break during the fourth quarter last night? It was bad.

Robinson reminds me of a smaller Nick Van Exel, a great scoring, quick pointguard with a wicked jumper, a temper, and an uncanny ability to make the wrong decision. Maybe ten years from now Robinson will pull a Van Exel, wise up to how to be a point guard and sign with a contender like Nick did with Dallas a few years back. Until then, however, he's a novelty act.

So whose the future of the Knicks? Mardy Collins

Between his thinning hair line and his strong fundimentals, its hard to believe that Collins is still a rookie. Though it makes sense considering he was coached by the great Coach Chaney at Temple U. He is strong like bull, pulling down rebounds. He is not as quick as Robinson, not as athletic, and his jump shot is two years away from being viable, but god damn can this young man run the point. Hopefully next year, Thomas will have the sense to keep him in late game situations, if only for his decisions making skills. This is a guy who gets the ball where it needs to go.

Also, he made Carmelo look like a punk.

Everything starts somewhere

I wonder how you found this place. Everyone else seems to be popping up with blogs so I figured, why not?

A bit about myself and what you should expect to see here. I'm a (soon to be) fresh out of college type from the NYC area with dreams and aspirations and time to waste. I want to use this space to write about the little things and the things I love. I'm an aspiring basketball coach and history nerd, so expect alot of unrelated musings about basketball and intellectual type stuff, mixed in with whatever else crosses my mind on a given day. I love to write so I'll probebly be here alot.... starting in a few hours when I get back from lunch. Also, my grammer is impecible, my spelling isn't

So ya, enjoy, and feel free to contact me about any of the offense crap I might write (philkeis@brandeis.edu).


PS: A million points to anyone who figures out where the title comes from.